Modi walks back from regressive farm laws

 

Modi announced his decision to repeal regressive farm laws that have been causing social and political instability in country since last one year. A summary of controversies about these farm laws is in first part of this long article. To be very brief, the farm laws were seen as Neoliberal regulations that will dilute govt accountability & participation in Agriculture sector and empower private corporations to participate (or exploit) in the sector more freely. The laws were also seen dictatorial as they were passed without consultations with ruling opposition parties in several states, and passed without proper parliamentary procedures and careful scrutiny. 

The farm laws have been causing mass protests in India, specially North India which is the bastion of much of the Agriculture production. Many farmers have died in brutal crackdown by Police in several states and it created a lot of negative sentiment against the regime among farming community of North Indian states which are the most affected parties of these laws. All this is well known and there is little point in delving into this. My intent is looking more into reasons of Modi regime's change of position on these laws. As we all know, this is a dictatorial govt that doesn't step back from its foolhardy, destructive and anti-people black laws despite fierce opposition from public protests.

 

 

Elections are coming - Regime is worried and don't wanna take any risks - Goal is to defend the Hindutva headquarter of Uttar Pradesh which is the most critical state in power structure of BJP regime

The electoral motives of regime are clear to everyone. The State elections are coming in several states in few months, most notably in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh. Uttar Pradesh right now is the power center of ruling regime from electoral, militaristic, social and spiritual point of view.  UP is the most populous state of India and has the largest contribution to Lok Sabha Parliamentary seats. UP is also the headquarters of a lot of religious militant organizations that are key supporters of BJP regime. UP also represents a Model of state that BJP wants to transform other states into. A state where population is converted into slaves and brutally abused by the Govt. A state which has fallen into the bottomless pit in terms of poverty and human development index. But despite all that, the BJP regime has consolidated total electoral power. The characteristic of state can be described as 'Battered Nation Syndrome'. A state where poor and ignorant people are under a long term abuse of the Govt, but instead of standing up against the Govt, the people defend it.

Spiritually, the state is very important because of cultural heritage of our Hindutva politicians who have based the concepts of Ram Rajya and Hindurashtra on model of this state. The state will house the Ram Temple which is based on foundation of communal massacres, religious riots and emergence of BJP in the 90s. At this juncture of BJP's political road, BJP simply cannot afford to lose this state. The state is under control of a radical Hindu cleric - Ajay Bhisht aka Yogi Adityanath, a title of his religious rank. Yogi Adityanath maintains an iron grip on state but BJP doesn't want to leave anything to chances. An overwhelming victory is the most critical short term goal of BJP regime.

In Punjab, there is not much BJP can do because the people's sentiments are too deep against Modi regime. However, BJP would like to make a power play by aligning with former Punjab Chief minister Amarinder Singh who left the ruling Congress party in state over faction fighting few months ago. Amarinder Singh is forming his own political party right now to take on ruling Congress as well as other parties in the state elections.

What built the pressure on regime to walk back on its policy? - A year long movement by people against oppressive regime - And some more dynamics at play

I've been reading about opposition politicians taking credit of forcing Modi to take back farm laws. While political opposition from state governments was an important factor but this was just one of many factors. Punjab Congress Govt has strongly opposed farm laws since the beginning, but now has been recently busy in faction fighting between its leaders. Presently, Navjot Sidhu, an unstable man is Congress President of Punjab while veteran leader and sitting Chief Minister Amarinder Singh was ousted few months ago. Congress recently has been busy with its political maneuvers instead of thinking about farmers.

The ground based farmers grassroots movement has been a strong force that built much of the pressure on regime. The farmers, the activists, the common people, the civil society and all their supporters who protested relentlessly against the regime for a year created the resistance movement against the regime. Many also paid huge sacrifices by suffering violence and intimidation by the regime. It wasn't the politicians who paid the sacrifices, it was the people on the ground.

 

Another thing that is not directly connected to the withdrawal of farm laws but lies somewhere in the background is the supreme court which is under a new leadership.  In last several years, Supreme court has been a mute spectator of illegal & unconstitutional policies of Modi regime. The tainted history of some of the past justices like Dipak Misra (only CJI to be challenged by impeachment motion), Ranjan Gogoi (went from CJI to become Rajya Sabha MP) and several others have desecrated the image of Indian judiciary. But new chief justice NV Ramana has shown a glimpse of positivity. Supreme court built a pressure on executive govt which contributed to govt changing its regressive national vaccine policy few months ago. And recently supreme court ordered to create committee to examine allegations of snooping of journalists, opposition politicians, activists and all kinds of people. This is among the gravest threat to Democracy in India. The jury is still out on the legacy of NV Ramana's tenure but people are cautiously optimistic about him. An independent judiciary creates some environment of responsibility & oversight over the regime.

More reasons for Govt changing its stance - An attempt of an image make over by Modi-Shah regime - They are thinking of long term political future

Underlying the electoral worries of Modi-Shah regime is the fact that regime has accumulated a lot of bad inertia in last 7 years specially since 2016. The Demonetization, the chaotic GST, the austerity policies, the unemployment, economic mismanagement on epic level, the botched up lockdowns, the migrant crisis, the pandemic mismanagement etc - a long list of things that has made the regime hated and despised in many states and many circles.

 

The regime undoubtedly is extremely powerful with control over institutions, the backing of corporations, the media and street control with religious militant gangs. But regime doesn't like the mass unpopularity among people which has been building up since quite some time. Modi & Shah are now playing the long term game for political consolidation. There's a simple saying - "Speak softly and carry a big stick - you will go far."  Modi right now is building an image of a moderate leader specially to get through some very important coming elections that are 'make or break' for future of BJP. Modi is trying to ACT as an accepting and compassionate leader - emphasis on word ACT because he doesn't have these traits in reality. 

There's also some international dimension to Modi's domestic politics in India. There are whispers in the wind that Modi's image is not good among international community, specially among western nations. Not many experts have heeded to these whispers yet. Modi's recent visit to Vatican city has not gotten much of a perspective in India but this visit was important. This was an attempt to repair the damaged image of Modi in the west. The Papacy is widely respected as symbol of moral diplomacy in the world. Publicly, the Pope didn't speak up against Modi's record of human rights violations in India but we don't know what happened behind closed doors. Modi has invited Pope to India on state visit which strongly suggests Modi's yearning to repair his image. Yesterday, Modi announced the withdrawal of farm laws on occasion of Gurupurab - its the most important religious festival of India's minority Sikh community. Apparently Modi is sending message to India's Sikh community as well as to international community.

There's more anecdotal evidence about disapproval of Modi in the west. The recent French judicial investigation of India's Rafale deal is also a sign. Modi is personally embroiled in corruption of this deal and its interesting to see how French Govt is probing it, given it can undermine India-France foreign relations. In US whistle blower documents on Facebook, a lot of dirt on India is coming out about how Hindutva regime has poisoned the social media environment in India. US-CIRF, a federal commission for religious freedoms abroad has drafted some scathing reports on India's new Citizenship laws (read 1, 2, 3). It has recommended to put India on red list, however this has not yet happened.  Its also well known that there's a large Sikh community in Canada & other foreign countries and they are pressurizing their governments to speak against Modi's farm laws (read 1, 2, 3).

 

 

Conclusion - An opportunity for Political opposition

Modi-Shah regime have all the above mentioned reasons to take back farm laws. More specifically it's for electoral motives and an image makeover. But i see that this will actually weaken the regime, provided that our political opposition can exploit this opportunity to its best advantage. Modi-Shah's ideological supremacy actually comes from their arrogant style of governance. Its a dictatorial govt which projects itself as powerful unshakable and unrepentant because it works in "best interest" of nation. This is the ultranationalistic image Modi & Shah have drafted about themselves - they are always right because they don't step back in face of criticism. 

But now as regime is doing an image makeover, its hubris and ultranationalistic image has been dented. They are not always right and they step back as they are wrong. The regime now looks weak and repentant which is in contrast of strongman image they have built in last several years. This doesn't go down well in support base of BJP party and also gives a big moral boost to all the opposition forces of BJP. Also, if BJP wanted to take back farm laws, a better timing would've been 6 months ago. Now taking back farm laws just before the elections makes the party look electorally selfish, weak and unpopular.  Opposition political parties should now mobilize on the ground to capitalize on weakening of BJP's image before the crucial state elections.

(The photo on the top is a farm field on Yamuna Bank in Delhi. Nothing relevant to the subject, just something i took while on a walk some days ago)