Why Trump won 2024 US elections?

Joseph Goebbels: “The big joke on democracy is that it gives its mortal enemies the tools to its own destruction.”

US 2024 elections concluded with victory of Donald Trump, a felon previously indicted on 91 criminal charges - espionage, conspiring to defraud America, inciting an insurrection, election interference, business fraud etc. Trump, regarded as most unfit and grossly incompetent leader still managed to beat Democratic party candidate. How did this happen?

Elections are unpredictable exercises and complex gambles which can go either way. This itself is structural problem of electoral democracy which i have discussed in a previous article. When a candidate like Donald Trump is in the race, playing this gamble in electoral democracy can turn out to be a Russian roulette. Elections are complex and it's very difficult to measure and ascribe weightage to observable factors behind their outcome, and then there are many unknown unknown which we can't even account for. Despite this, i try to make some analysis on Trump's victory.

First and foremost is the failure to stop Trump from participating in elections. Elections in Democracy is meant for candidates who believe in Democratic process and peaceful transfer of power. There are people who fundamentally do not believe in any such principles and if they are allowed to participate in Democracy, their very goal is destroying it once they get to power. Joseph Goebbels said - “The big joke on democracy is that it gives its mortal enemies the tools to its own destruction.”

Trump should've been prosecuted and convicted after all the criminal acts he committed in previous tenure. But US justice system and judicial machinery, especially the Supreme court is corrupt and dysfunctional. The investigations against Trump were inadequate, delayed, malicious (role of Attorney General) and designed to fail. The courts gave Trump immunity which practically shielded him from his various crimes. So the first problem arise due institutional failure, lack of checks and balances which allowed Trump to contest in elections, a candidate who is thoroughly incompatible with Democracy.

But once Trump was allowed to contest in elections, there were many other problems. The scandalous role of media in normalizing Trump, sane washing Trump and giving him platform and free publicity. It's well known that media enterprises are tentacles of big corporations & billionaires who wanted Tax cuts, deregulation and subsidies from Trump. Trump on his own is impotent man without the support of media and social media platforms who give him the bullhorn to spread his propaganda.

Most mainstream pundits continue to harp about sanctity of Democracy but Democracy has critical flaws of which Trump is a prime example. People don't vote on rational objective reasoning, they vote on sentiments and emotional appeal. US society has lost rationality and healthy reasoning in last few decades which has brought them to the destiny with Trump. Trump turned objective reality upside down with slogans like 'God saved me for a purpose' and 'Are You Better Off Than You Were 4 Years Ago?' which resonated with voters. Trump's previous tenure was a grand disaster in every way - the gross bungling of pandemic, the foreign policy, domestic policy, day to day affairs etc. But still Trump, a reality TV star, managed to dupe American people again.

The subversion of Democracy this elections by Tech brothers (cloud capitalists) was a significant factor in these elections. While it's true that Kamala Harris out-raised Trump in political funding, the money alone is not a guarantee of political success as it was also the case in 2016 elections. The social media space is large influencer of society and shapes public opinion. Here the platforms of tech brothers which are rigged in favor of Trump, especially Elon Musk's Twitter/X have been crucial in spreading propaganda, election lies and misinformation. The true extent of tech bros interference in this election can never be known because the toxic algorithms of their opaque and unregulated platforms are much guided secrets. 

US plutocracy is polycentric, comprising of variety of factions - Big Oil, Big Pharma, Big banks, military industrial complex etc. However, in the last decade, a new kid on the block has emerged of Silicon Valley companies, the so called tech brothers and cloud capitalists. They own the cloud capital - the internet, social media platforms etc - which hold tremendous sway over public opinion. The various plutocratic donors may have big money but their actual power influence is not uniform and equal. The tech brothers are now among the strongest power players in the plutocratic donors because of their vast control over public minds. 

Experts have attributed various reasons to Trump's victory. Some leftists have blamed Biden-Harris for betraying Muslim population by enabling Genocide in Gaza. Many Arab Americans have extended family, friends and connections in Palestine and have a strong sense of solidarity with Palestinian community. Biden-Harris diplomatic and material support to Israeli government has dismayed this Muslim electorate as well as many leftist Americans. However, i believe that this is a minor factor & limited to only small local region like in Michigan. The current reversion against Democratic party support is wider in most of the battleground states where there's hardly any significant Muslim community. 

Some pundits have blamed the choice of Harris as Presidential candidate. They believe that possibly some more popular candidate (like Michelle Obama or Gavin Newsom) could've been a better choice against Trump. But this is contemplating the hypothetical counterfactual. The rush to find "popular" candidate itself is a flaw of Democracy. Popularity and Populist appeal has become a substitute for competence and intellect. This is a fundamental flaw of populist democracy where the societal intellect has greatly diminished while celebrity culture, Kayfabe and reality TV have become the dominant factors that influence political choices. Electorate is making political decisions based on sentimental & emotional appeal of candidate and Trump masterfully capture the audience. 

Many pundits also blamed Harris's strategy for associating and campaigning with Liz Cheney as she got endorsement from her father Dick Cheney as well as other unpopular Neocons. I don't think that Harris made any special bonding with neocons as she presented the endorsement of Cheney merely as an expansion of political alliance against MAGA. Experts also blame Harris of not working hard enough to connect with voters. This isn't true either. Harris did a lot of ground coverage across the states including various PR management. Celebrities, actors and singers were also hired for events and rallies to attract public attention. But all that proved insufficient to overcome populist appeal of Trump.

I do not find merit in argument that Democratic Party ran a substandard and incompetent campaign. I do not believe that candidate choice of Harris was fundamentally wrong. There wasn't any fundamental problem with governance and policy track record of Democratic party either. The economy and domestic policy was reasonably well managed despite the obstructionist tactics by GOP congress and SCOTUS. 

The defeat of Dem party is primarily for three reasons - 

1) Allowing a Fascistic politician to participate in Democracy who doesn't believe in any principles of Democracy

2) Unfavorable outcome of election lottery in unpredictable populist democracy where society has lost rational and objective reasoning

3) Mind bending operations of tech brothers and media enterprises who normalized and popularized Trump

When a grossly unfit and most incompetent person manages to become President of a nation .... twice. It tells more about the structural failure of nation's political system.