Trump's economic aggression against the world and shock therapy in America
What is possible remedy to Trump? How can he go down and under what conditions? I wrote several scenarios on Trump regime and a particular scenario can possibly play out and materialize into Trump's departure. It was well understood that Trump will subvert and destroy existing structures and institutions of America. But he's doing it at such a fast speed that he will break down the economy badly in very short time. A malignant politician with evil intentions intends to subvert and takeover the country. Best way is to do it systematically with meticulous planning and patience. Otherwise the consequences of failed takeover can be brutal. Trump is evil but he's also a fool.
America is a dysfunctional Democracy for sure. And now Trump intends to subvert it and make it into a Potemkin Democracy like that exists in Russia, Turkey or failed 3rd world nation like India. In such states, a single political party has monopoly over politics. The institutions, especially police and similar agencies are handmaiden of ruling party and these agencies are used to dismantle and destroy political opposition. The bungling henchmen of ruling party control all institutions including courts and run the country in authoritarian way. In theory, there are elections in such countries and there's a (Potemkin) appearance of Democracy but these states are very much authoritarian in nature.
Subverting an existing political order of a nation should be done meticulously and patiently because one should avoid destroying the nation altogether. Trump doesn't seem to care. Trump is trying to destroy existing political order so rapidly that it will create chaos and anarchy. Such anarchy is not good for business even in terms of Trump's dictatorial ambitions. America still has a system of elections and crucial Congressional elections are scheduled to happen in less than 2 years time while GOP is already hanging by a slim majority in Congress. If economy goes down, there is massive unemployment and inflation, if there is recession and popular anger against Trump, the MAGA party (GOP) will be routed out in coming elections. Although Trump is an expert demagogue who fools and distracts people, i don't think any amount of distractions will fool American people if national economy is in a free fall. Even many plutocrats and oligarchs who supported Trump will turn against him.
Atlanta Fed GDP estimate indicates a sharp downturn in American economy in near future
Mass firings of government employees, massive budget cuts especially of legacy social programs, tariff induced inflation, collapse of private investment due to Trumpian uncertainty, mindless trade wars etc - all these things will amount to a kind of shock therapy on American society. This will undoubtedly create big resentment against Trump. Apart from that, there are bigger problems that are unfolding which may have tremendous long term impact. US dollar may even lose its status as world reserve currency. Who would want to hold dollars if America acts like a Mafia state, attacks its own allies (Canada, Mexico, Europe etc) and America cannot be a reliable international actor? An example of it is how Trump destroyed his own free trade policy with Canada and Mexico unilaterally. Similarly, even America's commitment to NATO alliance is now in doubt.
But all this disorder and anarchy for short term may be a good thing if American society wakes up to troubles and disposes the MAGA party (GOP) into the dustbin. No doubt that a large section of American society is under mass Psychosis but a severe economic shock may precisely be the thing to bring them back to objective reality. When price of groceries shoots up, when unemployment spikes, when payments on legacy programs stop, when essential services close down - this will amount to a strong punch in the belly of American society. And it may be a necessary jolt to wake up society and society may revolt at the ballot box.
International response to Trump's trade war and aggression against allies
How should foreign countries and especially American allies react to Donald Trump? For some time, American allies treated Trump as an aberration of domestic American politics. So a confrontation with Trump was avoided. Now when Trump's plans are well understood, Trump should be dealt in strongest of terms. We have to understand the mental pathology of Trump. Trump thinks he's the center of universe and everything will bow to him. Trump threatens, berates, bully and extort foreign nations due to this thinking. But other nations showed calculated restraint because they don't wanna jeopardize standing relationships. It's time foreign nations should deal with Trump's policy in harshest of terms. Most of Trump's threats are based on bluffs, blackmails and his delusions that he has some magical powers to control the world. Once the world stands up against him, Trump will be exposed as impotent idiot. Trump is a rooster who thinks he controls the sun.
Trump has already shot himself in the foot by raising prices in his own country due to tariffs. No matter how foolishly Trump claims that tariffs are a tax on China, the American consumers will soon know the reality when they feel the pinch of higher prices for goods in local stores. Foreign nations should also impose tit-for-tat sanctions like tariffs on American agriculture goods and other items. In fact, foreign nations especially American allies (Canada, Mexico, Europe) should co-ordinate a response strategy to Trump's trade war with a plan to impose economic cost on American consumer as well as American plutocrats. This policy is necessary to counter Trump's bullying and aggressiveness. American allies can make it clear that tit-for-tat policies are a response to trade war which Trump has unnecessarily and unilaterally declared on the world. When US economy worsens and American population steadfastly disposes Trump in elections, new political government can come in and patch up relationship with allies. Normalcy can be restored with sensible diplomacy and understanding.
Foreign nations must also learn from past mistakes and break way from Neoliberal thinking and austerity. A sound economic policy is needed in Euro area which has long been marred by foolish doctrines like fiscal rules of Maastricht treaty and German debt brake. These policies have kept Europe in stagnation and decline for much part of last two decades. Changing security dynamics in Europe is giving wake up call to European politicians especially due to need of urgent defense spending. Here, once again the zero sum game fatal mistake of fiscal policy on defense spending at cost of social spending should be avoided. Otherwise such odious policy will create resentment among local populations which will be further exploited by right wing movements in these nations.
American oligarchs like Elon Musk should be treated like hostile Russian oligarchs and appropriate sanctions should be placed on them. Fortunately, European public at its own initiative is boycotting Tesla automobiles due to Fascistic positions of Elon Musk. Tesla sales in Europe are already plummeting. European nations, Canada and Mexico should also cancel contracts with Starlink and similar corporations. Social media corporations like Facebook and X should be strongly regulated as these have become nothing but a sewer full of disinformation. Sanctions on American oligarchs will harm their profits and put a pressure on them to reverse their support to Trump.
Europe, for the time being, also needs its own security infrastructure as Trump continues to sabotage NATO alliance. France is talking about preparing an Eurocentric nuclear deterrent and other nations are contemplating putting peacekeeping forces in Ukraine if ceasefire agreement is reached. America under Trump has gone AWOL so vacuum has to be filled in urgently. Trump regime should be treated as a hostile entity because it's openly meddling in domestic politics of friendly nations. Here, foreign nations need to timely dismantle and destroy Trumpian clones and Fascistic movements in their own country.
Bluff and blackmail are main weapons of Trump and he's confident that they always work. But when countries start to retaliate and stop giving in to Trump's demands, Trump will swallow defeat and shift the goal post to declare Pyrrhic victory. Flip-flops on Tariff policy on Canada and Mexico is one such example. Trump without any planning impulsively declares Tariffs. But within few days he walks back from his decision when he gets a hint of grave disruptions. Foreign nations shouldn't hesitate to co-ordinate a response to unilateral economic aggression by Trump regime. And Trump will cower.
While Trump is evil, it's fortunate that he's also an idiot. And his idiocy may be the cause of his demise. Foreign nations should hang tough. Democratic party should prepare to capitalize on grand failures of Trump's shock therapy on US economy.
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Drug War Theme - Xavier Jamaux
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