India becoming a failed State
Morning of 26 January started with Republic Day parade. Armed forces marched in front of Presidential grounds, Fighter Jets rumbled the skies and our national heroes in Police and Military were presented with Gallantry awards for bravery. This was the day of foundation of our constitution. Early morning of the day was a grand national event for celebration. But underlying this celebration was hidden a bitter reality - India becoming a failed state. A state which superficially seems to be strong with a disciplined Army, Nuclear Arms capability and a strongman leader Prime Minister Modi. But underlying this facade is the bitter reality - a collapsed economy, death of state institutions, Balkanization of nation, social disintegration and breakdown of society. After the republic day parade, it only took a matter of few hours that India's bitter reality came to surface.
The Police forces which just received awards for bravery were seen battling to control huge crowds of angry mob of farmers - hundreds of thousands of them protesting against Modi's new farm laws. The entire city turned into a battle zone as Police blocked all national highways to stop farmers from entering Delhi. But just few minutes later, hordes of farmers destroyed all checkpoints and entered Delhi by foot and on tractors. Then came the horrific scenes of farmer police conflict. Some farmers driving their tractors GTA style trying to overrun police forces. On India's iconic Red fort, farmers were seen beating up Police forces and throwing the police over the Red fort walls. By the afternoon, India's Republic day turned into a Dark day. Farmers were seen taking selfies on their tractors at red fort, playing loud music and roaming freely. Police was mostly withdrawn from highways and focused to defend the key institutions like Police Headquarters, India's Parliament building, Supreme Court, residences of big politicians and VIPs and main institutional area around Central Delhi. Later farmers went back to their original protest sites and designated camps on Delhi borders. Government blames farmers for violent turn of events on 26 January. Farmers claim that they only wanted a tractor rally on city's ring road but Government agent provocateurs (read 1 & 2) orchestrated the violence to malign peaceful farmer's movement. But beyond the blame game on Republic day violence, there is a broader perspective on condition of the nation today - The failure of the state.
Modi wasting political capital on useless Neoliberal farm laws while ignoring real meaningful reforms - Opened Pandora box of mass agitation nationwide - Mass movements against Neoliberal economic policies and unconstitutional laws
A country like India need reforms in economy but reforms must be meaningful and constructive. Sometimes Govt has to make constructive reforms which may be unpopular in the public. But Govt, in thinking long term national prospects, have to carry out unpopular reforms despite public protests. But Farmer movement happening right now have legitimate and substantive demands. Without going into all the details of Modi's farm laws and issues of contention, i am summarizing some of the main points. Basically, Modi's farm laws is deregulation of India's Agriculture sector and Agriculture marketing. Present Agriculture sector in India is a complex web of State and central regulations. Most notably of these laws are the provisions on MSP (minimum support price), APMC (Agri trade through regulated State controlled wholesale markets for crops) and various Govt subsidies on Fertilizers, Electricity etc.
MSP, the minimum support prices of crops provide a floor & benchmark at which Govt tries to ensure that prices of farmers produce won't fall below certain levels. One of the fundamental problems of India's Agriculture sector is big price volatility in crop prices. This has to do with many structural problems in economy but basically Indian farmers on many occasions don't get fair price of their produce. On many occasions, the prices of crops get so depressed that farmers could not recover their basic input costs and cost of labor. This problem of depression and variations in crop prices is more prominent in perishables which Govt doesn't even cover under MSP. Sometimes, the prices are so depressed that farmers in protest just dump tons of their produce on the streets.
Farmers dumping tomato produce on streets because of depressed prices. Perishable crops are prone to high price volatility and are not covered by MSP protections.
MSP in unorganized farming sector is supposed to work like the concept of minimum wage in organized sector. Basically, farmers are guaranteed that their capital investment and labor input will at least result in certain levels of profits even if there is depression in crop prices due to any reasons. If price of crops fall below certain levels, the Govt will itself buy the farmers produce and thus providing stability in Agriculture markets. These are the MSP prices which Govt formulates every year after various deliberations and calculation methodologies that factor Labor costs, costs of seeds & fertilizers, inflation, marketing trends, minimal nominal profits to be given to farmers and many other factors. Of course the bottom line of MSP is political decisions on what level the benchmark should be set. Throughout the years, there have been various calculation methods proposed by the Govt, most notably is Swaminathan formula which was formulated by Govt committee on agriculture but remain elusive in practicality. One of the major contention on new farm laws is that Modi Govt has not given statutory MSP protection in these laws. Govt assures that farmers will get MSP for their produce but new farm laws do not have any Statuary provisions on MSP. Govt proponents claim that full statutory MSP will put major strain on fiscal deficit and interfere with actual price discovery of crops by free markets.
Wholesale Agriculture Trade is also regulated by State controlled and designated markets called APMC Mandis where farmers sell their produce under various regulations. However, not all States in India follow this regulatory mechanism. Some states like Bihar have already deregulated their Agriculture marketing and have unregulated Private wholesale markets. Modi's new farm laws calls for abolition of these state controlled wholesale markets and allows private sector to set up their own unregulated markets. While Modi touts his farm laws, which are central deregulation of state Agriculture, as great reforms that will benefit agriculture sector, there is hardly any improvement in Agriculture sector of states like Bihar where the sector has already been deregulated (read 1, 2 & 3). Bihar continues to be the most economically depressed state in India. Another aspect of private unregulated Agriculture trade is tilting balance of power in favor of private corporations. The provisions of new farm laws takes away the Judicial rights of farmers and make it harder to get justice in case of any civil disputes (read 1, 2 & 3). Farmers view these provisions of new farm laws as "pro-Big food" or "pro-Big corporations", giving excessive powers to corporation and enabling them to freely exploit farmers.
Another issue with Modi's farm laws is overreaching of central government powers over state subject. Many people view Agriculture as State subject and believe that States Government should make appropriate laws as per their best interests. Even if central government thinks that a central legislation is needed to reform Agriculture sector, then center should build a consensus with States to make new legislation. Recall that GST Tax reform was done after consensus with all states. Farm sector employs more than half of entire workforce of India and half of all households depend on Agriculture. Hence new central farm laws need to be formulated in consultation with State governments as Agriculture is politically, socially and economically a critical area. Even at central level, the new farm laws were passed without a conventional parliamentary process. New farm laws were not scrutinized by Parliamentary standing and select committees for Agriculture. Farm laws were first brought as an ordinance (executive order) without building consensus with key cabinet members and later rushed through the parliament. In upper house of Parliament where Govt doesn't have the majority, farm bills were passed by a dubious voice vote.
Opposition MPs objected these parliamentary proceedings but were expelled from Parliament who then went on strike. Modi Govt rammed through with the passage of new farm laws without consulting State Government, following parliamentary conventions, and even taking its own allies into confidence. Modi Govt boosted about how it can pass unpopular reforms despite all opposition. But this has been a habit of Modi Govt - They act first without thinking of consequences and repercussions.
Mass agitations now a regular affair in India. Clockwise from top left - Labor union protest against privatization, Student protests against new citizenship law, Protest against cooking gas price hikes, Govt Doctors & Nurses protests against non payment of salaries.
Protests against Modi Govt policies are not limited to farm laws. There are many issues which have made BJP ruling Govt deeply unpopular. Privatization, fuel price hikes (Petrol, Diesel, cooking gas etc), Govt austerity, new anti-labor laws, regressive GST tax, high unemployment, new citizenship laws (CAA-NRC) are many other issues along with farm laws where nationwide mass movements have been raised by Labor unions, social activists, students, workers, farmers and national youth. Delhi has become a fortress and checkpoints are installed over all critical junctions. The capital is now in a permanent mode of dealing with mass public protests. Every few weeks, there is a mass protest in Delhi as well as all other major cities across India against XYZ unpopular and regressive policy of Govt.
India's economic collapse - Highest ever unemployment, collapse of private investment, De-industrialization, bankruptcies - 60% of Indian population in acute poverty - 2.5 Million deaths every year because of hunger and Malnutrition
India's failing economy is root cause of most problems. India's economy has always been weak due to many structural problems but Modi's economic policies have caused unprecedented collapse of Indian economy (comprehensive analysis read 1 and 2). Indian economy is in a depression since several years, specially since Demonetization, which caused huge unemployment, business failures, de-industrialization and economic uncertainty in India. These were the problems that existed long before the pandemic and all these problems have greatly aggravated by pandemic induced slowdown. The unemployed people are finding some support from Agriculture sector as a last resort. India's labor participation rate is lowest ever as more than half of the
labor force has dropped out from workforce in India's jobless economy and went into farming &
other informal avenues of employment which provides meager daily wages. Ideally, Modi Govt should work in addressing structural problems in economy. I explained the type of policy action we need in our economy (read 1 and 2).
But Modi's farm laws, much touted as great reforms, do not address India's structural problems in any way. Instead the government is going into opposite direction by adopting meaningless austerity policies, privatization and deregulation. These kind of nonsensical policies are further pulling the rug under the already distressed labor force in this depressed economy. Modi made bold promises like doubling the farmers income, Bullet Train quadrilateral (high speed rail network), building hundred smart cities, 20 million new jobs and many other things. But failed to deliver on anything as all of Modi's promises only lie on papers and manifestos and no actual delivery on the ground. One of the problems Modi Govt dealing with is crisis of credibility due to failure to deliver on key developmental issues. Its no surprise that farmers have no faith in Modi's promises about the goodness of new farm laws. Government jugglery of economic data is well known on all economic parameters including GDP growth, unemployment, poverty index, inflation etc. All effort is done to hide the real numbers on economic health (read 1, 2, & 3 ).
A brief summary of Indian economy. Almost all sectors of country are in distress - Agriculture, Infrastructure, Telecom, Automobile, Banking, MSME, Power etc etc. The reason for distress are diverse but originate mostly from incompetence, corruption and policy paralysis of Government. In banking sector, nobody knows the exact nature of Bank NPAs and frauds. Every now & then, a bank or some financial institution collapses and placed under protectorship of Central Bank. Overnight, Govt has to impose capital controls to stop run on the bank. The big bank defaulters and fraudsters easily flee away & escape from Indian legal system by taking refuge in safe havens like UK & other foreign states. Big national banks have to be bailed out to keep them solvent.
Agriculture sector sector has been in distress long before Modi. The issue of MSP, farmer income, farmer suicides, bankruptcy of farmers & Agri business, irrigation problems & water shortages, farm subsides & loans etc etc are long standing issues and Indian Government has failed to decisively solve these problems. Farm sector supports half of the national population but is the most distressed, inefficient and problematic sector in economy. Thousands of farmers commit suicide every year due to bankruptcy and crop failures.
Many projects in Infrastructure have either completely stalled or going into delays and cost overruns due to policy paralysis and corruption (read 1, 2 & 3). Economic slowdown-Stalled Projects-Bank NPAs-Unemployment has become a perpetual self feeding cycle in economy and the problem is further aggravated by Modi Govt austerity in last 6 years. Budget cuts, Capex reduction (there is small token increase in this year budget), Moratorium on new Govt job creation, lack of fiscal assistance to states & local bodies, nonsensical fiscal deficit targeting have further weakened the demand in economy.
Hallmark of Government austerity is Job vacancies in Government departments. Government refuse to fill vacant positions in various departments and institutions even while there is massive unemployment in country.
Beyond the statistics of GDP, investment, NPAs, unemployment etc, the ground reality of people's lives is the real issue. A country with almost two-third population in poverty reflects a very sick nation. The government keeps changing the methodology to hide poverty data but can't hide the reality. 2.5 Million Indians die each year because of hunger alone. Millions more die because of simple preventable diseases like Diarrhea, Tuberculosis, Malaria etc because of poor living standards, lack of healthcare and poor sanitation. More than half of the workforce doesn't have any social security and full time employment, and thus forced to do farming and other informal avenues of work which gives them meager hand to mouth daily wage earnings.
Real strength of country comes from its economic and industrial power, not just from the amount of its weapon purchases. A country like North Korea has a big powerful military and now also has Nuclear weapons but people of North Korea are eating grass in broken and backward economy. In India, we once used to mock our neighbor state Pakistan as "bhooka nanga desh" (English translation - poor starving country) for pursuing Nuclear weapons while its population starved. Ironically, we are moving fast in same direction in many perspectives (read 1 & 2).
Death of Indian institutions - Judiciary no longer functions -
Parliament has lost all relevance - Investigating agencies like CBI, ED,
NIA, IT, Police etc have become private armies of politicians - Even the critical institutions
like Military are now heavily politicized
One of the critical symptoms of failing state is that its institutions stops functioning and fade away. A country like India with 1.4 Billion population requires institutions for systematic and orderly governance and administration. The national affairs and challenges of our country are vast & numerous. To run our national affairs we need strong and independent institutions. From planning to execution, from policy making to actual deliverance and accountability - the institutions are hands and feet of government which run the country. But the institutions have faded away and lost relevance. Judiciary, Parliament, Law enforcement agencies, regulatory institutions and departments, Government enterprises etc have either gotten completely corrupt and faded away or have become merely as a political instrument in hands of politicians.
In a Parliamentary Democracy, a member of parliament should be a highly qualified, visionary, competent and upstanding citizen of country. But look at the quality of India's parliamentarians today. Most of them are corrupt, religious fanatics, backward, ignorant and some of them are even illiterate. Most of them simply don't have the intellectual capacity to understand national problems, forget about any hope of them doing anything constructive to solve these problems. Many of the parliamentarians are hardcore criminals, mafias, corrupt businessmen and feudalistic oligarchs.
India
being a Parliamentary Democracy used to have major role of
parliament in creation of legislation, policy planning and accountability
of executive. But now executive branch, the office of Prime
Minister has subsumed the job of parliamentary functions. The executive
Govt presents laws in the parliament which are rubber stamped by BJP
majority, mostly without any discussion, scrutiny and analysis (read 1,2 & 3). The standing parliamentary committees are now useless as most laws of parliament are never deliberated & reviewed by these committees and technocratic panels.
I have explained the state of Indian judiciary, Police and investigating agencies (comprehensive read 1 & 2). To give a brief summary, the Judiciary has become unapproachable for common man in attaining any justice. Simple court cases are dragged for years & decades prolonging the agony of people as Judicial process has itself become a part of suffering and punishment (read 1, 2, 3 & 4). With acute shortage of courts & judicial officers, there are no resources for resolution of court cases & timely deliverance of justice. Whatever higher judiciary we have left has become an extension of executive branch which gives legal backing to nonsensical, illegal and even unconstitutional policies of political government (read 1, 2 & 3).
The corruption in courts and Police law enforcement is well known and bribery is a widely accepted norm. The police & law enforcement agencies have become private armies of politicians which are used as a Gestapo for politically motivated investigations. Maintaining law and order, crime prevention and catching criminals is the not the main goal. Police is not there to prevent crimes but to regulate them. Also police departments are underfunded and understaffed just like the judicial system. Most prisons are filled beyond their capacity and recently Modi Govt has also started packing prisons with political prisoners, activists, students, farmers, journalists, opposition politicians etc who are seen as a threat to ruling party. Criminals and specially white collar criminals are having a field day in India as they are well aware of weak and incompetent legal system & law enforcement. While Police does maintain some degree of law & order in top cities, there is hardly and law in rural India. Crime against women, minorities and weaker sections of society are rampant. Communal incidents on caste and religion are also common.
The white collar crimes like financial scams, bank frauds and public cheating are in every area of country and more so in urban cities. Banking & finance, Cyberspace, Real estate, are some of the main areas of crimes. Many of the big businessmen are willful defaulters who defraud banks of Billions and get away with it easily due to connection with politicians. In real estate, lakhs of Indians are defrauded by big builders by entrapping them into housing projects which are delayed to eternity without any hope of completion. Many people are defrauded by some form of financial services and investment schemes. The culprits orchestrating these crimes hardly are brought to justice as they are all too familiar with India's pathetic legal system.
Left - Gen VK Singh joined BJP. Right - BJP election posters featuring Indian Army to garner votes.
Military which was historically an apolitical and independent institution has unfortunately also got trapped in vicious trend of institutional decline. Military is a highly disciplined and trusted institution but corrupted officers have now infected leadership ranks where they operate like termites. Former Army chief VK Singh and dozens of other Military officials joining BJP is the epitome of the politicization of military. Military is used as an instrument for political promotion and event management by ruling BJP party. Such misuse of military will undermine its credibility and professionalism.
Balkanization of India - Long standing structural problems and regional disputes - Modi's central Government declared war on non-BJP State Governments - Brutal power struggle between center and states - Modi digs up and revive long buried national problems
Various regions in India have been becoming hostile to one another since last many years. This problem is not emerged due to Modi but it has greatly amplified under Modi. Before going into the problems created by Modi, lets look at some of the long standing problems. Much of India's internal problems are due to lack of economic development, weak and incompetent political leadership, and India's social fabric which is amalgamation of many diverse cultures and religion.
India's Northern region, comprising of states like UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh etc are the economically depressed and socially backward states since long time. These populous states contributes little to economic & industrial activity but have larger electoral weightage in India's Political system. India's southern states like Kerala & Tamil Nadu on other hand have much better economic prospects and social development but have very little share of power in central Government. This North South divide is visible by looking at great disparity between per capita incomes of states. There are also disputes among states on various grounds, most notably due to water scarcity and water sharing agreements. An underlying cause of this is lack of investment by central Government to solve India's water scarcity crisis. As much as half of Indian population live in water scarcity regions and significant part of fresh water resources have either exhausted or are heavily polluted, thus unusable. Karnataka is in dispute with Tamil Nadu over sharing of Kaveri river which is a major source for Agriculture and urban consumption in both states. Punjab is in dispute with Haryana, Haryana is in dispute (read 1 & 2) with Delhi.
There also have been regional insurgencies in some parts of India. Kashmir region has been an active hotspot for militancy & terrorism since long time. There is Maoist movement in economically depressed Northern states. Khalistani movement in Punjab was dead & buried many years ago but Modi is trying to revive it for his political purposes (more on this in a minute). There are also various insurgent movements in North East India demanding regional autonomy. Due to economic disparity and labor force migration from depressed states to economically better states for jobs, there are sub-nationalist & nativist movements in states like Maharashtra, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu against poorer states like UP, Bihar & Jharkhand. On top of these insurgencies, nativist movements and state factionalism, there are religious militant organizations like RSS, VHP & Bajrang Dal, working under the umbrella of BJP, which are against Muslims, minorities and liberals. These Hindutva militant organizations have long standing history of mob lynchings and communal riots against minorities in India.
India always had a problems due to nativist & sub nationalist politics and insurgencies. But despite all the problems, India still functioned reasonably well with a democratically elected central government under a co-operative federalism model with healthy relationship between States & central Government. But Modi has changed all the national dynamics in last 6 years. Modi's central government has declared war against all non BJP state governments. The cooperative federalism model of India has come under an unprecedented stress as Modi is brutally crushing opposition political parties through every means at his disposal. Central investigating agencies and regulatory bodies are unleashed against opposition politicians in various states. Many opposition politicians are thrown in prisons on politically motivated trials. Opposition politicians are broken away from their party
But Modi's most dangerous decisions are central government legislation to bypass and erode State rights. Extreme example of it is in Kashmir, where entire state was extinguished overnight and converted into two union territories. All political opposition leaders thrown into prison for more than a year without any trial. Similarly, these farm laws are example of eroding the State government jurisdictions. Six states, Punjab, West Bengal, Kerala, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi have passed resolution to reject Modi's central farm laws. Last year, Modi pass a completely unconstitutional Citizenship amendment laws (CAA) which threatened social stability of country. Modi planned to implement these Citizenship laws along with NRC (National register of citizens) to establish the identity of every Indian citizen. Those found to be non citizens will loose all their national rights and privileges and may even be thrown in detention centers. CAA-NRC was such a dangerous policy that 11 States comprising of more than half of the population of India refused to implement these laws.
Root cause of many center-state disputes is Modi's Austerity policies and lack of central assistance to states. India is going through severe economic depression and only way out of this is aggressive central government spending and fiscal assistance to states. Even before the Covid induced depression, the economy was in shambles. Modi's attitude towards states is like putting a knife on the neck of state governments in this time of depression. Modi wants States to pursue massive privatization and deregulation as a condition for availing central assistance. The dispute of GST revenue sharing has always been an issue of contention as Modi tried to renege on constitutional guarantees of fiscal compensation to states.
One of the strategy of Modi to neutralize farmer protests is by discrediting it as a religious & regional issue. Modi Govt says that farmers protesting new Farm laws are anti-national Khalistanis. This is classical Modi ploy of Divide and rule, turning states and communities against each other. But this will have disastrous national consequences. India had a bitter history of state sponsored anti-Sikh riots in 1984. Modi won't hesitate to orchestrate new anti-Sikh riots to crush and dismantle farmer movement. State sponsored Communal riots and mass murders are at very heart of Modi's style of governance. Modi built his political career on Gujarat communal riots and massacre of Muslim communities in 2002.
In conclusion, lets look at Modi's war with States. Modi is actively at war with state governments of at least 6 states - Maharashtra, Punjab, Rajasthan, West Bengal, Kashmir and Kerala. These are the states where Modi is trying to overthrow state governments by various means. Modi is organizing coup in Maharashtra, West Bengal and Rajasthan with ferocity and almost succeeded in Rajasthan last year. State Government of Kashmir has been overthrown and dismantled completely. Modi's coup has also succeeded in state of Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka by buying off opposition politicians and dismantling the ruling political alliance.
Since all Indian institutions have collapsed, State Govt are the last remaining obstacles in Modi's dictatorial centralization of power. The opposition political parties are thus fighting tooth and nail battle with Modi's ruling BJP party to preserve their sphere of influence and political clout. Internal political instability, bitter center-state disputes and conflicts that undermine the co-operative federalism model of country are weakening the very foundation of Indian state.
Political health of country - Long term secular decline in quality of political leadership - A religious populist PM Modi & ruling BJP party is culmination of failed political system - MPs & MLAs are bought and sold like commodities in parliament & state assemblies - Illiterate, ignorant & backward population votes on religious, communal, casteist political lines - legalization of political corruption through laws on Electoral Bonds
Apart from death of institutions, the state of political system is also in shambles. The State apparatus, from top to bottom, from city council to Parliament & cabinet, is filled with incompetent, corrupt, ignorant and illiterate politicians who do not have an educated view towards challenges of nation and policy making. Mafias and criminal elements have infiltrated the political system and law enforcement at all levels. There is no surprise that many of the ruling politicians are indicted on criminal cases including cases of homicide, inciting riots, financial scams, rapes, money laundering etc. As its said - law breakers have become lawmakers.
The problem with political system hasn't originated suddenly with Modi coming to power. Political system, like institutions, has been in a secular decline since many decades. Modi is just the culmination of perverse form of our political system. Modi has thrown away the veil of all civility and superficial but traditional norms of our political system. MPs and MLAs are bought and sold like market commodities. MPs & MLAs are made to change their party allegiance overnight just like changing of clothes. Consolidation of power and establishing majority is the only rule of the game. Political manifestos, party flags, promises and even election outcomes have no significance. In today's multiparty system, all that matters is controlling enough MPs & MLAs to form a government or to attain a majority to pass certain legislation as in case of Rajya Sabha.
The people voting to elect politicians don't have any understanding of national problems. World is getting more and more complex with science, technology and modernization. The problems of nations are also getting more complex - Food and water security, managing public healthcare, human resources development, energy independence and economic development are huge challenges in a country with population of 1.4 Billion. But illiterate, backward, ignorant and superstitious population doesn't have an educated understanding of these problems. They vote on religious lines of Hindu or Muslims, Tribal & caste lines of Jats or Yadavs or on agendas of reservation quotas and similar things. The electorate now has no intellect, it only has emotions. They can be fooled by inflaming communal emotions and nationalism. Modi and BJP have mastered the art of duping gullible Indian voters.
A corrupt system when allowed to continue long enough finds ways to legalize itself. The corruption is legalized and practiced without hesitation. Electoral bonds is prime example of legalization of corruption in Indian politics. Big private corporations can fund political parties without releasing any information. Since Modi & BJP is the ruling party, it can corner all political funding by hook or crook. While Modi has enough financial support from his friend Oligarchs, no private corporation will dare to give funding to other opposition parties fearing vindictive actions by Modi.
Social health of State - An ignorant, illiterate and desperate population - Economic collapse has wiped out the middle class - Most of the population is backward, superstitious, gullible and unconscious about national affairs
The decades of economic decline and falling standards of living has big impact on Indian society. Without decent jobs, social security, healthy living standards and good education, the society is becoming ignorant, superstitious, desperate and self destructive. Country's social health can be measured by size of its middle class. Middle class - A class of population which is educated, self sufficient and has a healthy political thinking. India which is abysmally low in human development index has a very small fraction of middle class and this is continuously shrinking due to long economic downturn. India's middle class was significantly wiped out by economic depression which actually began with bursting of housing bubble starting in 2013. Millions of middle class homeowners lost their life savings as real estate companies defaulted on their commitments to banks and consumers (read 1, 2 & 3). India's housing market collapse which began in 2013, was triggered by unsustainable debt of real estate companies, fraudulent practices of builders and poor regulatory system of Govt. The housing market downturn got worse with economic shock of 2016 demonetization and finally pandemic induced crisis.
Ghost Townships in big cities are hallmark of collapse of India's housing market. Millions of people lost their dream homes due to collapse of big real estate infrastructure companies. Middle class got trapped in unsustainable loans and debt and lead to countless bankruptcies. Photo - WSJ
Middle class was under a sustained assault by various crisis. Collapse of housing market in 2013, stagnation of economy post Demonetization in 2016 and finally massive job losses from Covid induced slowdown.
An ignorant and uneducated population have no rational thinking. Much of the population is deeply religious, obsessed with superstitious rituals, Cow worship, Ram Temple and Hindutva. Superstitious population try to find solution for their economic suffering and poverty by dedication to fictional Gods, myths and religion. BJP politicians promised people that building Ram temple (Ram is avatar of supreme God Vishnu) will absolve the nation from poverty and hunger.
Top - Modi at foundation ceremony of Ram temple. Advani and other BJP leaders promoted Ram temple as the answer to India's problems. Documentary on BJP's rise and Ram temple politics. Bottom - Cow worship is central to many superstitious practices in India. Cow urine is promoted as cure for Heart disease, cancer, Coronavirus and many medical diseases.
The issue of caste and religious discrimination is also among the
biggest social evils in the country. Whereas countries like America have historically
experienced racial discrimination against Blacks, Hispanics etc, India's
caste system is much more draconian and inhuman. The stories of caste
based discrimination and its social practices may sound
unbelievable to western observers, but these practices are very real in
India. The social evil of caste system originates from cultural Hindu
belief system called Manusmriti. Instead of solving the problems of caste system, Politicians built their careers on feudal caste system and division of society. Politicians thus created a social reservation system (not to be confused with China's social credit system) as a remedy for caste discrimination but this actually exasperated the situation.
Due to economic collapse and its social impact, the population has also become desperate, deeply tribal and self centered. Politicians have figured out easy way to misdirect people by indulging them into tribal/Caste politics. Various communities are made to fight for reservation and quota in government jobs and education. Interestingly, the Govt has stopped creating jobs since long time but parochial view of ignorant people is chasing after reservation rather than understanding broader economic and national problems. Instead of challenging the Job Austerity policy of Govt, people are chasing after bread crumbs of reservation system where Jobs to applicant ratio is 1:300 or 1:1000 or even higher (read 1, 2 & 3). Meritocracy is the foundation of any modern nation and India's foundation was dealt a big blow by Mandal commission. In many areas of jobs and education, the promotion is now based on caste and tribes rather than on actual skills and capability of people. As much as 60% of entrances to higher education and job promotions in India are now based on caste reservation system. If this is how we are developing our human resources in 21st century, does India has any chance to compete against China, Europe or US?
Modi's model for India - A self sustaining failed state - A Zombie State
The institutions in India have collapsed - gotten completely corrupt, became servile to political leadership and lost all independence. The institutions have now failed to normally function and carry out work which they were originally created for. The economy is in shambles with massive poverty, inequality, unemployment and falling standards of living. Only handful of Oligarchs are the winners in present economy as they enjoy friendship and special relations with ruling political leadership. One must wonder - What vision does Political leaders have in mind for India?
North Korean Military parade. A nation with fifth largest Army in the world but autocratic nation is a failed state with archaic broken economy and people without food on table.
Look at countries like North Korea. A nation with strong Army, Nuclear weapons and aggressive posturing against super power like America. North Korean Army can be seen highly disciplined marching in parades and their national leader give lectures about patriotism and national duty. But underlying this superficial State power lies economic misery of nation, poverty and oppression, and actually the slavery of nation's people. North Korea is a state where the political elite have all the power while rest of the population are all slaves. Its very organized form of slavery not seen in other countries. There are other nations in the world which on surface appears to be Democracies but behind the facade of Democracy are brutal dictatorships with power in hands of few powerful oligarchs who are personal friends of elected dictators. Russia and Turkey are such models of state. The ruling elites in dictatorships can be in form of Plutocrats, Oligarchs or old fashioned Kings & Princes (like in Saudi Arabia).
The sole purpose of Oligarchies and Plutocracies is self preservation. The military power and state apparatus is built entirely for the protection of ruling elites. The state apparatus is actually built for internal plundering of nation. Recall that countries like US invade states like Iraq to Plunder its national Oil resources. In Oligarchical states, the oligarchs and plutocrats have the sole monopoly for plunder of nation's wealth. The welfare of citizens, alleviation of poverty & inequality, improving standards of living of people, developing human resources & modernization of nation is not the objectives of dictatorial government. Average citizens may live in acute poverty, eat grass to survive or starve to death, die of disease & pollution, live in misery & depression - all this doesn't matter to dictators and Oligarchs. The only thing that matters is preservation of ruling oligarchical power structure.
The model of such state can be called Self sustaining failed state or a Zombie State. The state defaults on all its responsibilities, duties and obligations to its citizens. The institutions of state collapses. They get completely corrupt and dysfunctional or they become a rubber stamp of political leaders. Either way, they no longer do their important national functions. The economic assets of countries are privatized and become personal assets of Oligarchs which they run according to their self interest. Lives of common citizens get ruined by poverty, economic hardships, state corruption and oppression. Civil liberties are suspended and personal freedom is extinguished. Police and law enforcement apparatus is not used to enforce law and crime prevention, but rather used as an instrument to instill fear in the public. The state is self sustaining in a way that military maintains the territorial integrity of state. The corrupt oligarchs of state establishes relationships with other Democratic nations to do their business dealings. The state, which is totally corrupt and broken from inside, establishes a facade of healthy normal appearance from outside. This can also be called a Zombie state - The state appears to have normal shape and form from outside. It has a military, institutions, Democratic elections, political leadership etc like any other country. But the State is dead from inside. The institutions are completely corrupt and dysfunctional, there is no transparency and credibility in elections of country (see Russia), handful of autocratic leaders and oligarchs run the entire country. The Zombie state imitate like a healthy living state but its actually dead and rotten corpse.
India at risk from hostile foreign powers - Chinese dictators have expansionist ambitions and they are gauging health of Indian state - Foreign powers seek to take advantage of failed states - Chinese aggression is a motivated by India's internal weakness
India is surrounded by hostile neighbors China and Pakistan. Chinese leadership lead by Xi Jinping are ruthless expansionist dictators with ambitions of widening its territorial boundaries. China has figured out the overall political and social dynamics of our country. Chinese leadership has closely studied and understood the personal traits of Narendra Modi and how he runs the country. China illegally occupies thousands of square miles of Indian territory and claims that so & so region of India as its own territory.
China wishes to capitalize on India's internal weakness. Whereas Indian military is prepared to deal with Chinese aggression on borders, modern warfare is not just about tanks and troops. Economy, money & trade, Cyberspace etc are the new arenas of warfare. China's Belt & Roads imperial policy is one prime example of this. Indian establishment also realizes how BRI is strategic encirclement of India. There is a great disparity between economic and industrial power of China and India, and China uses its potential very aggressively. China poaching away India's neighbors by entrapping them into BRI is happening since last several years. Chinese cyber attacks and their capabilities against American institutions are well known. There is not much official information about Chinese cyber operations against India but there are intrusions in India's critical Infrastructure and institutions including power grids, Nuclear plants, Banking and finance institutions etc (read 1, 2, 3 & 4)
On North west borders of India, lies another hostile nation Pakistan. The history of creation of Pakistan as a state carved out from Greater India pre-1947 is well known. In simple terms, a nation which has seceded from greater state will never be a friend of its former parent state. Its no surprise that India and Pakistan has fought three major wars and numerous smaller conflicts in last 7 decades. While i am writing this article about India becoming a failed state, our neighbor Pakistan has already become a failed state. Since last few months, Modi Govt is portraying that India foreign relations are improving. Pakistan agreeing to LOC ceasefire, Pakistan's muted response against India's withdrawal of article 370 in Kashmir and India's cross border surgical strike is portrayed by our Govt as a success of India's defense policy against Pakistan. Pakistan's defense policy is quite simple. Pakistan realizes that it doesn't have the capability to take India head on in a conventional war, so it continues its proxy war in Kashmir. To me, its unsurprising that Pakistan didn't respond in any Knee Jerk military reaction to India's Kashmir policy. Collapsed economy, political instability and internal civil war has weakened Pakistan in last two decades so its not really interested to start a full blown war with India. Pakistan's defense and foreign policy against India will continue to be proxy war, low intensity insurgency in Kashmir and continuous targeting of Indian armed forces.
While some people may think that ceasefire arrangement with Pakistan implies a pragmatic thinking of Pakistan military. The "Ghazwa e Hind" doctrine mindset in Pakistan military and establishment cannot be rehabilitated. China's expansionist ambitions against India are fueled by internal weakness of Indian state. China's small concessions to India on LAC shouldn't be viewed by us as any sign of goodwill from China. All peace talks and arrangements by Pakistan and China may just be a strategic deception. Two front war against China and Pakistan remain a very real possibility and the most critical challenge for Indian military. Pakistan alone can't defeat India in a war. Despite the size and strength of PLA, Indian Army is highly capable to give a strong defensive response to Chinese Army. Biggest military threat to India comes from a two front war which i believe India's defense capability isn't prepared for at this time. Of course, our CDS and some Pro Modi military officers may claim that India is fully prepared to fight a two front war. But that's more of a fictional rhetoric rather than actual reality.
The global geopolitical dynamics is rapidly changing with demise of American unipolar world order. With rise of China and Russia, and weakening of America due to various reasons, the global power balance is shifting. Its very difficult to find trusted allies in this uncertain world. Its also interesting to see that many observers have myopic view of strategic partnerships. The Quad is good initiative to build defense block with US, Japan & Australia. But strategic partnerships are not just about military exercises. Covid-19 pandemic is a great global challenge right now but how much America has helped India in this regard? America continues to withhold its medical research, technology and vaccines access from India as well as other countries. America's medical advancement and R&D on Vaccines and antiviral drugs is concealed behind barriers of intellectual property. Will our Quad partner give its technology access to us in this time of need? I don't think so. India and many other developing nations have asked America for TRIPS waiver so that vaccines can reach poor nations without burden of excessive pricing and to address supply shortage problems. But US, Japan and EU refuse to listen to this.
Another problem with our political leadership is their extremely shortsighted view on things. Our politicians only think of their interests for coming elections and political campaigns without thinking of the long term consequences of their actions on future of country. Divisive national politics may give near term election gains but will undermine the multicultural fabric of country in long run. And when we create long term problems, we create tensions and threats to social harmony. In last several years, Modi Govt has built a conducive environment in India for foreign countries to run interference. Foreign countries will always try to capitalize on internal weakness, public grievances and social disorder. China and Pakistan are not the only foes of India. When a nation becomes a failed state, every country starts interfering in internal affairs of failed state to build its influence and fill the power vacuum. A failed state has no allies. Take a look at our domestic situation. Our Govt needlessly created social tensions by new citizenship law, new farm laws, draconian crackdown against people and dictatorial style of governance. This is not really a sign of strength but actually weakness which will expose itself in long run.
Defense and Geopolitical analysts in India do our national security and threat analysis mostly from point of view of conventional war threats from China and Pakistan. While this is undoubtedly an important aspect of threat analysis, but our analysts don't give much attention to overall health of country and its long term future. By that, i mean economic, political and social state of country. The state of our institutions, our structural problems, our industrial policy, our political leadership and long term challenges we face 20 years or 50 years down the line. National security is inseparable from all these issues. India's economy is in terrible condition and our human resources are getting completely ruined. What will be the long term impact of this on our national security? China is growing leaps and bounds in areas of semiconductors, artificial intelligence, Biotechnology and other modern industries. How will India deal with Cybersecurity and other unconventional threats from China and other countries? What policies does India need to stay in race with China? Even looking at some of the most basic problems. More than half of the population is facing acute water scarcity (200,000 Indians dying every year because of lack of clean drinking water) and the problem will get much worse in coming decades. How will country survive without water? Climate change is causing abrupt weather changes, more floods and other calamities in India leading to aggravation of food insecurity which already is a major problem. What will be the impact of this on our national security? These are complex problems but require urgent attention for us to be prepared for coming future.
References
Economy
https://takeindiaforward.blogspot.com/2020/12/indias-economic-policy-in-last-decade.html
https://takeindiaforward.blogspot.com/2020/02/indian-economy-needs-major-spending.html
https://takeindiaforward.blogspot.com/2020/09/budget-crisis-of-states-in-covid-19.html
Indian Judiciary and Law enforcement
https://takeindiaforward.blogspot.com/2020/02/how-does-police-courts-and-public.html
Indian Political system
https://takeindiaforward.blogspot.com/2020/01/india-at-crossroads-time-to-rethink-our.html
https://takeindiaforward.blogspot.com/2020/08/power-centers-of-modi-shah-regime.html
Comments
Post a Comment