India's political cycle

Nations go through political cycles like a cycle in Europe is depicted above. Their political paradigm fluctuate between hardline neoliberals and centrists. Hardline Neoliberals in Europe are conservative, right wing and Xenophobic parties/politicians that enforce harsh fiscal austerity, give tax cuts to super-wealthy and cut social safety net of poor class. They also scapegoat immigrants for national problems and weaponize xenophobic populism. The centrists are leftist political parties which also are disciples of Neoliberalism but they practice austerity more slowly to minimize backlash from electorate and make austerity more palatable. The centrists are prudent in public messaging (like openness to immigrants) but most of policies of centrists are identical to hardline Neoliberals. So unsurprisingly, the centrists lose popular support in due course and right wingers regain their footing.

Does India also have a pattern of political cycles?  India's political cycle is driven by fluctuation between two ends. On one end is Religious populism, the ultra right wing politics of Hindu nationalists. On other end is Caste politics, and peculiar combination of Neoliberalism and ultra left wing populism. 

I have written about both these sides of politics which are politically & economically destructive to Indian state & society.  The Hindu nationalists employ religious populism, politics of Hindu deities and culture. People are polarized on basis of ethno-religious basis to capture their votes. The Hindu nationalists also use scare crow of Pakistan for political means and project themselves as guardians of Hindu culture in the world. And abreast to their politics of populism and nationalism, they continue their real goals. That is to ruthlessly expanding their criminal enterprises, corruption, looting of national property and subverting national institutions. 

On the other side of spectrum is countervailing force to religious populism and Hindu nationalism. This force comes from mix of political parties on the left in alliance with regional reactionary parties, all of which seek to create political capital on caste politics and caste populism. Caste populism is mirror image of Hindu populism - both are toxic. While Hindu populism seek to polarize electorate based on religion, caste politics seek to polarize electorate based on caste. The left politics also entails rural and agriculture populism. 

In terms of caste populism, left politics is about dog-eat-dog reservation system, pitting communities against each other for employment and educational opportunities. People from hundreds of castes are enticed with reservation in Government employment and education system. India is a backward economy with very little industry, poor infrastructure, a broken education system and lack of governing institutions, rule of law etc. The political elites and oligarchs have failed to modernize the country which has left the nation in dearth of employment and without any ladders for social mobility. Caste populism is about capitalizing on the desperation of Indian youth in this failed country.

The reasons of mass poverty, unemployment, inequality falling living standards etc in India have a solid macroeconomic basis which i outlined in earlier article. And remedy to India's ailments also lies in concrete macroeconomic policy, not any caste politics and reservation measures. Even if you examine India's neofeudal caste system with a genuine Marxian/leftist perspective, you will find that the caste exploitation is a veneer over class exploitation. The businessmen, wealthy merchants, elite landlords, local religious temple lords (called Brahmin Pandits) etc used the neofeudal caste system to consolidate their class privileges against lower class peasants, poor artisans and other kinds of proletariat. Caste in itself has no meaning but it's propped up by reactionary casteist politicians. All this i have covered in previous article.

Left rural politics, especially in North India is also about Agriculture populism. Giving big subsidies to farmers, price controls (through MSP) to prop up failed agriculture system, various loans followed by loan waivers to farmers, blocking constructive eminent domain policies etc. All this is on top of India's tax system which exempts agriculture income from income tax. All these pro-agriculture policies are reflection of century old economic worldview but India procrastinates in reforming these anachronistic agriculture policies.   

India's left also demonstrates intellectual bankruptcy like the Fascistic right. The caste politics, rural populism and pro-farmer policies are used for political capital with cloak of democracy.  Since majority of workforce & Indian households are in farm sector economy, left populist politicians project their reactionary policies as representation of Democracy. Agriculture sector is a dead end, a furnace which burns up half of labor force while giving small marginal gains & minimal production. Real task of political leadership is to move away Indian population from farm sector and towards an urban industrial sustainable modern economy.  But it's politically profitable to keep people trapped in unsustainable unproductive agricultural rural economy. Modernizing the economy also requires imagination, vision and high competence in policy making; qualities which our politicians lack thoroughly. 

The cycle of politics ranges for around 10-15 years. The fascistic right wing party BJP rises & consolidates power based on symbolic issues of religious populism and Hindu nationalism. When the party is in power, it wastes political capital on symbolic victories like promoting Hindu culture, oppressing minorities, building temples etc. No substantive policy work and governance is executed. The crisis of poverty, socioeconomic backwardness, unemployment, inflation, corruption etc remain unresolved. The economic failures continue to pile up and people start to lose interest in symbolic victories. 

As the BJP begins to lose popular support, the left parties start to capitalize on anti-incumbency sentiments and failures of government. The left wing invokes the caste politics and dangles carrots of reservation system. In previous years (2000s) the carrots were OBC reservation, today the carrots are Caste census and overhaul of reservation system. In the past Congress regime, the party distributed the carrots of OBC quota in education system, giving it a short term boost in political capital. This is similar to boost which right wing parties get from symbolic victories of Hindu populism & temple politics. In terms of economy, the situation remained bad. The crisis of unemployment, mass poverty, corruption, farm sector distress etc is never resolved. Then growth stalls, bank NPAs pile up, public infrastructure projects fail and inflation worsens. The electorate start to lose interest in symbolic victory of quota reservation. And right wing parties start to consolidate on government failures and anti-incumbency sentiments.

The above trend in political cycle is holding more or less since last 3 decades. Recently, BJP tried to implement one party dictatorship but so far is unable to neutralize opposition. The opposition; INDI alliance, amalgamation of leftist parties (INC, DMK, communists etc), regional reactionary parties (SP, RJD etc) despite losing national elections have clawed back parliamentary seats in a comeback. I outlined the analysis of 2024 elections in previous article. Basically, BJP political machine appears to have passed its cycle peak and general malaise is creeping in. The symbolic victories of religious populism appears to run out of steam after a 10 year euphoria among the electorate. Hence a window is opening up for INDI alliance to make a comeback.

Indian civil society, intellectuals and activists have binary and mechanistic thinking. Since the BJP has wrecked the country in last decade, the civil society is now embracing INDI alliance. This same civil society & activists 12 years ago embraced BJP sponsored Anti-corruption movement to help oust the leftist Congress government. Indian civil society and activists are objects of change in political cycles rather than subjects which would drive any change; discussion for positive reforms. 

Much of the Indian civil society and activists are romanticists. They will claim their undying loyalty to constitution. They venerate the constitutional principles and oppose subversion of constitutional structure. However, there is paradox in their thinking. The activists supported the INDI alliance even when the first point in the manifesto of INDI allaince is about amending the constitution to restructure reservation system in India (possibly through some kind of Mandal 2.0 forum). This itself is a brazen attack on constitution, even worse than what BJP did with article 370 of constitution. Original constitution only gave reservation to SC/ST people and underscored the 'CLASS' as the criteria for reservation. Caste is a synthetic political issue created by ethnic entrepreneurs for electoral purpose. 

Even constitution which is venerated by romanticist activists & civil society groups is largely a failed project. The constitution in theory had good ideas but it prescribed a political system which is thoroughly dysfunctional and incompatible to Indian society and thus failed to materialize the lofty aspirations envisioned by founding fathers. India is a backward, polarized, fragmented, uneducated & poor society which had no roots of democratic history, political institutions and even basic civility and polity to perform Democracy. This i have explained in a previous article. Despite all the incompatibilities and utter lack of prerequisites for a functional Democracy, founding fathers adopted a top down approach to conduct social experiment of implementing Democracy. This experiment has largely failed with Indian political system now taken over by ruthless Gangsters, organized crime groups, fanatics and oligarchs - a situation similar to Democracy of post Soviet Russia which really is a Mafia state. 

The constitutional romanticists, civil society activists also have no understanding of macroeconomic basis of India's socioeconomic problems. They attribute India's socioeconomic problems like poverty, unemployment and inequality on caste & minority discrimination. The macroeconomic factors like lack of Capital, lack of aggregate demand, structural problems of Indian economy, gross wastage of labor force etc - these factors are not acknowledged and discussed. The activists view India's problems only from micro perspective of social justice. The core ingredient for social justice starts with competent economic policy. How can you achieve maximal employment? How can you green transition the economy? How can you achieve sustainable maximal production with more equitable distribution? These questions require technocratic policy making & concrete macro policies. 

The constitutional populists, caste leaders and even secessionists (like newly elected Punjab MP) have seen their political stock rising in recent years. Constitutional and caste populists talk about their love for democracy and constitution. BJP failed to contain these set of politicians even after employing heavy handed dictatorial methods like launching political witch hunts. Some of these leaders were also thrown into prisons but who fought their way back into politics and managed to win Parliamentary seats in this election. Newly elected MP, Chandrashekhar Azad, is one such politician. The civil society activists and intellectuals adore him and his fiery speeches. 

Indian civil society activists are driven by binary mechanical thinking. On one side of political spectrum is Fascistic BJP and on another side of spectrum is ethnic entrepreneurs of Caste politics. Civil society activists rush to embrace these caste politicians. The oppression of these caste politicians like Azad makes them more respectable among activist circles as they view them as victims of Govt oppression in struggle for Democracy. But reality is that these Caste politicians are just the mirror image of BJP - destructive, incompetent and fanatical, and having no constructive ideas for Indian society. 

Indian activists don't remember the history.  The BJP politicians like Rajnath Singh, Jaitely, Advani etc were once also the warriors to save democracy during 1970s. They were also thrown into prisons and oppressed during emergency rule by Indira Gandhi. Later these leaders become popular politicians and got elected. And when they got to power, they turned out to be highly incompetent and reactionary politicians. They abused power in worst ways, their policies wrecked the country and they became much hated scoundrels. If you look at today's Caste politicians and many of the constitutional populists, they are at same phase where present BJP politicians were in early days of their career. 

Activists also enjoy the theatrics and performative aspects of politics. They like fiery speeches in Parliament by their favorite politicians. The performative acts like confrontation between ruling politicians and opposition MPs is new kind of TRPs in political theatrics. Recently, the speeches of politicians like Rahul Gandhi and C Azad are praised by activists as a pinnacle of Democratic exercise. However, if you examine the substance of their statements like demands for Caste census, these speeches are nothing but destructive populist demagogy. And of course, the speeches of ruling politicians, the Prime minister & his minions are also full of falsehoods and demagogy as well. 

C Azad wants Caste census and to extend quota reservation system to private sector. These ideas are so outrageously foolish that they don't merit any objective rational argument.  But absurdly, these nonsensical buffoonish ideas are slowly becoming mainstream in India and Indian civil society cherish them as well. As i mentioned, the election manifesto of INDI alliance started with a demand of Caste census; a thoroughly futile, destructive and unconstitutional agenda. But this was praised by India's leftist circles.

What will be political future of India? The picture is grim from both political perspectives. The right wing fascistic forces may try to consolidate power with their brand of religious populism or the left casteist ethnic entrepreneurs will try to make a comeback with their brand of caste populism. Today, if hypothetically there's a switch between rule of BJP politicians and INDI alliance politicians, i do not think there will be any improvement in India's problems. The economic, social and environmental crisis will remain unresolved and continue to get worse. Because underlying the veneer of populist demagogy and theatrics, both sides of political spectrum are the same - criminals, gangsters, fanatics, sociopaths & imbeciles. In newly elected Parliament, 43% of parliamentarians are criminals and trend is across the political spectrum. 

The civil society, activists and intellectuals who have decided to embrace the politicians and toxic politics of INDI alliance don't realize that they will be replacing one set of populist demagogues with another set of populist demagogues. 

References

Caste census and bankruptcy of Indian left

India, Democracy and Political future

Analysis on India's 2024 elections

India's Economic Policy in last Decade - From Neoliberalism to Modinomics