Analysis on India's 2024 elections

India's 2024 election concluded with third consecutive victory for BJP & its alliance but with it's parliamentary seats diminished. Contrary to popular opinion, the elections of 2024 weren't on any real constructive agendas. The BJP, the main Fascistic party ran on usual majoritarian Hindu nationalism politics. Various opposition parties united ran on three key agendas - Caste census, Farmer distress-rural populism, saving Democracy. I have explained how caste census is a dangerous, destructive and unconstitutional program though conventional wisdom of Indian left finds it adorable. The farmer distress is well known as various farmer movements have risen up demanding various concessions from Govt. It's unsurprising that BJP suffered in the Northern states where these movements are more prominent. More on this below. 

But keeping aside all the distractions, diversions and populist propaganda, i found that both parties completely inadequate in solving any real challenges of India. The opposition offers throwaway lines and tall promises on creating jobs and reducing poverty but they really don't have any plan on how to do it. The ruling BJP govt brandishes GDP growth figures and pledge to make India $5 Trillion economy, all this solves almost nothing on the ground.  Meanwhile real issues were never discussed, for example climate change and its grave threats to India. How to industrialize India, move it away from rural agrarian wasteful economy and transforming it into organized urban sustainable high productive economy. The acute water crisis of country where nearly half of nation is now drought prone and majority of clean water reserves of nation extinguished. How India has now lagged far behind other major countries in green economic transition. The issues of criminalization of politics was completely ignored.  All these issues and many others which actually matter never came to the fore.  

Elections are complicated because of their uncertain nature (like a gamble, a lottery) and also with too many unknown unknowns especially in India which is so much multi-culturally and economically diverse nation. Various dynamics are at play, much of it is not visible to our eye. So it's unwise to attribute specific factors behind particular election results. Nevertheless there are some identifiable factors which deserve mention. These can be summarized as analysis of 2024 elections below - 

Anti-incumbency and fundamental uncertainty of election lottery

BJP was going up against 10 years of incumbency. While BJP controls the media and newspapers and use them to propagandize its achievements, there's no real national progress on ground. The unemployment, poverty and hunger is rampant. The Govt exercise propaganda, distractions, diversions of nationalism and religion to keep electorate tranquilized. But in a diverse and vast country like India, electorate cannot be controlled completely. At least not yet. You can't fool all the people all of the time. If people get a feeling that they are fed up with incumbent govt, they will vote against it. Anti-incumbency remains a major challenge to any ruling govt in country especially when the govt relies too much on propaganda & distractions to control the public, not any actual work. 

Hubris - Errors of judgement - Echo chamber

BJP has subverted states like Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, making them a one party state. This has given a delusion to BJP that it can emulate this model at national stage - Making India a one party state. The transformation of UP and consecutive victory of BJP made them overconfident about their political strategy. They played fast and loose. In 2024 general elections, BJP relied heavily on using investigating agencies (ED, CBI, Income Tax etc) against the opposition parties. The opposition politicians were jailed, their assets seized and politically motivated witch hunts unleashed against them & their families. 

But BJP forgot its oldest trick in the book this time. False flag operations and communal riots. In 2019, BJP used well planned Pulwama terror attack at critical juncture to reap electoral benefits.  People don't vote on any rational basis & objective reasoning. They vote purely on sentiments. This ingredient was missing somewhat this time. The consecration of Ram temple injected religious sentiments among people. But society is more driven towards nationalist themes & violence. In 2019, the Pulwama attack created a powerful sequence for BJP. The candle light vigils and rallies of fallen martyrs were organized and "Pakistan se badla" "Modiji agay bado, hum apke saath hain" slogans were cherished by crowds, prominently in backward North Indian states like UP. Then BJP created the circus of surgical strikes and artificial tension on LOC. 

If BJP had created a similar event this time, it's very much possible that BJP would've gained more seats in this elections. Mind you that in 2019, the electoral theme of BJP especially in UP were twofold - to avenge Pulwama and build Ram temple. Here i like to make an important point. The politics of quest for Ram temple was a potent weapon for BJP. As long as Ram temple dispute was simmering, it excited people and they wished to fight for it. But after Ram temple is built, there's not so much excitement. It was a carrot which BJP dangled before electorate for decades. This gave political traction to BJP. When electorate finally got the carrot, the excitement diminished somewhat. Also Ram temple, is only a symbolic victory for people. It doesn't solve any real world problems like hunger, unemployment or poverty. 

BJP thus made a crucial error of judgement. To reap political benefits, you need to create controversies, societal tensions, environment that excites/enrages crowd. It's very much like meaningless TV sops which never reach any conclusion and keep audience cliff hanging. BJP delivered Ram temple, thus extinguishing its biggest political cow. BJP reaped short term political rewards but which i believe will diminish its long term political gains. But there remains certain risks which have been highlighted by key opposition politician Uddhav Thackeray himself. Thackeray warned that a Godhra-like incident may happen during return journey of disciples from Ram temple inauguration. This was a clearest warning about possible false flag attack in preparation by BJP. Had that attack happened, political dynamics could've been very different.

Apart from Hubris, Modi & Shah also live in echo chamber. While they make mistakes, they never acknowledge their errors. They are surrounded by yes men who dare not criticize the political strategies of 'the great Chanakya' a nickname for Shah. They live in delusion of total control while power is volatile like a water which can slip from hands. This brings us to another point.

Breaking away with longstanding allies - shooting own foot

Since last several years, power is getting more & more concentrated to Modi & Shah at the center. The state chief ministers, state policies and state appointments in BJP/NDA states are increasingly decided by party supremos in new Delhi. Some allies of BJP don't take this very well. Here the BJP shot its own foot by breaking away with oldest traditional ally - the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra which is a critical state. One of the features of BJP supremos is their hesitancy to share power with allies. Had BJP made Uddhav Thackeray the Chief minister in Maharashtra, BJP would have maintained its alliance with the party. Even worse was BJP smashing the Shiv Sena which destroyed its secure political space in Maharashtra. When dust settled, BJP found its control significantly diminished while opposition picked up the pieces. 

Similarly, Punjab although not a very crucial state nevertheless saw BJP throwing its own allies (Akali Dal) under the bus by pushing the centrally dictated farm laws. Farm laws (although later repealed) have become a major pain in the neck for BJP. BJP now has no allies left in Punjab, BJP's vote share now diminished in Haryana and uncertainty over UP has risen. 

Another thing which is possibly happening with BJP is Deja vu of what happened with Congress. Congress in late 2000s liquidated much of its cadre, the political Petite bourgeoisie ground forces of party. Neoliberal Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh started to get more dependent on media houses, big money and dalal street to operate their political machine. It appears that in recent years, the BJP is getting less dependent on RSS & more reliant on big money interests and media houses. It's possible that Modi & Shah became complacent in their echo chamber that since they control the air waves and they have access to big corporate money, they thought it's sufficient to win elections. It's possible that they missed something in 'on-the-ground' strategy. 

Suggestion for INDI Alliance

INDI alliance has gotten lucky and secured a revitalizing partial success. This success is very fluid and should be shrewdly capitalized upon. First thing they should do is implement strict party whip to guard the flock. You will find BJP using fists & favors to bully political opponents to switch sides. Secondly, opposition finally needs to take their gloves off. Issue a stark warning to bosses of investigating agencies that ruinous future awaits for them who have become political servants of BJP. These bosses will be destroyed when BJP loses power. Start attacking the corrupted factions of Supreme courts & other judiciary which has taken off its black robes and decided to wear saffron flags. All illegal orders of courts should be criticized most vehemently including name calling of corrupted judges. 

INDI alliance should use state agencies against corrupted officers of investigating agencies who are exercising illegal orders. Start charging and arresting corrupted officers of central agencies who are executing political orders from New Delhi. Bottom line is that INDI alliance should now learn to play scorched earth politics if they wanna fight back BJP. Also, political parties are basically collection of gangsters.  In INDI ruled states, the political opposition should now finish off and neutralize BJP ground forces just like BJP has done with opposition in Gujarat. Forget about any civility and restraint, it's time for high risk-high return style of politics. 

Success of INDI alliance is a matter of luck and fruits of errors by the BJP. This is not the result of any great manifesto or party program or any moral victory of democracy. The idea of destructive caste census should be dropped and constructive ideas for economic and political reforms should be contemplated. Though i doubt that INDI politicians will restrain from caste politics. Here, TMC (which is relatively a saner voice in coalition) should exercise authority by guiding INDI away from caste politics.