India's Political opposition and its Power struggle
I have written several articles about Modi and BJP's rule in India. This article is analysis on India's political opposition, what it is, what it was and where its going. I won't be talking much about the policies of government and their comparison with political opposition. This article is purely about Power politics - battle for control over states and center. In an earlier article, i explained five power centers of Modi's rule in India. I would be looking at our opposition political parties on how they fare in this perspective, how they lost power and what are the prospects of them defeating Modi regime & regaining power.
Congress after assassination of Indira Gandhi & Rajeev Gandhi - No strong leader in Congress to match someone like Indira Gandhi - Chaos of the 90s - Economic collapse, communal riots and political instability - Advani & BJP discover the antidote to socialistic populism of Congress party - Beginning of Hindutva Fascism & religious populism
Indian National Congress, presently the main opposition party on national level, ruled India for most part of post independence India. Legacy of Congress party was carried by Gandhi family starting from Jawaharlal Nehru, to his daughter Indira Gandhi and finally to her son Rajeev Gandhi. These three Prime ministers alone ruled India for combined period of 37 years, that's half of post Independent politics of India.
The three leaders of Congress had firm control over their political party as well as Indian politics. Indira Gandhi was assassinated in 1984 and Rajeev Gandhi suffered the same fate in 1991. 1990s was a turbulent time for India on many fronts, the economic crash, balance of payment crisis, communal riots, Kashmir insurgency, Battle of Kargil and many other events. Politics wasn't spared from instability & chaos of 90s. Between 1990 to 2000 India had 5 different Prime Ministers and various different governments of political parties and coalitions. After Rajeev Gandhi, Congress party did not had a strong central figure to reorganize & lead the party through 90s chaos.
When Congress was ruling party for decades, there were various small opposition parties in quest for power but they never had the strength to beat Congress. After the unpopular national emergency of 80s, Janta Party was the first political opposition to emerge against Congress Party and able to win elections and form a coalition government for 1 year. To consolidate its power, VP Singh's political strategy was polarization of India on Caste system. This was the birth of regressive caste politics in India (not to be confused with original SC/ST quota). The Caste politics of Janta Party was supposed to be the counter for Socialistic politics of Congress party. But Caste politics & Mandal commission wasn't able to propel the popularity of Janta Party much further. The Congress Party's politics of anti-poverty (Gareebi hatao), Roti Kapda aur Makaan, Nationalization and welfare state was too strong against the platform of Caste Politics & Reservation system.
The basic problem for opposition political forces in India was finding an antidote to Congress party platform that can resonate with larger public and provide significant electoral advantage. This was the time when BJP emerged based on religious populism and communal politics. LK Advani & others discovered that Hindu-Muslim divide was the key to build their political career. The multicultural Indian society can be splintered by playing majority against the minority and this majoritarian politics could be the ultimate counter to socialistic policies of Congress.
This was the birth of Hindutva which entailed Rath Yatra movement, Ram Temple politics, Babri Masjid demolition and various communal riots of the 90s. The gains on communal politics & religious populism were substantive. BJP which started in 1984 from just 2 seats, went on to win 120 seats in Parliament in 1991 establishing itself as the main opposition party and by 1998 BJP won 182 seats, single largest political party and was able to form a coalition Government called NDA. Here is an interesting documentary that analyzes the pogroms and communal riots of 90s.
In response to BJP's communal politics & religious populism, the answer of Congress party was unconditional surrender. The Congress after assassination of Indira Gandhi & Rajeev Gandhi never had a central figure to keep the party united. Leaders like Sitaram Kesari and Sonia Gandhi & several factions competed for control of the party but none of them had the leadership qualities of Congress predecessors.
Legacy of Narsimha Rao and Manmohan Singh has been touted by Congress and interestingly also praised by the BJP for economic liberalization policies after balance of payment crisis. But real legacy of Narsimha Rao & Manmohan Singh was their surrender in face of Hindutva Fascism that began first with Advani & ultimately consolidated with Modi's BJP. That's not all. 90s was the era where India made strategic blunders that will haunt India forever. Politically, we had the beginning of Hindutva Fascism. In terms of national security, we had the beginning of Kashmir insurgency. This was also the time when Kashmir started slipping from our hands with massive rise in insurgency. The power vacuum in central government created national crisis on many fronts.
Religious militant organizations threatened to start civil war in 1990-91. The insurrection of 1990-91, lead by Advani and BJP, was direct attack on India's secular foundation. It was waging of war against Govt of India and warranted a fierce response from govt in power at the time to defend India's secular foundation, communal harmony, peace and social stability. Army and paramilitary forces needed to be mobilized against religious militias which had captured the streets. Politicians like Advani and leaders of religious militant organizations should've been put on trial for waging war against Govt of India. The trial should either have been in military court or on special anti-terror fast track civilian courts to dispose these cases within few months.
Nowadays opposition political parties, intellectuals and activists cry about rise of Fascism in India. The 90s was the birth of this Fascism and what we see today is its full consolidation. Defending country against Fascism is not easy and govt in power must take tough decisions against Fascism threats when they first emerge. Narsima Rao, Manmohan Singh and those in power at the time didn't had any courage to take those decisions. History shows that Fascism once fully consolidated cannot be defeated by normal political process and elections because Fascists subvert the state and destroy all political opposition. Only way to stop Fascism is to nip it in the bud.
Congress after 2004 - UPA alliance & retaking power - A weak ruling Congress Party and a strong BJP opposition - BJP had a strong influence over military, judiciary, investigating agencies and institutions despite being in opposition - 10 years of Congress rule was a battle of survival as BJP cornered ruling Congress from many fronts - Congress did not take a stand against Fascist forces and abandoned the country just like in 90s
Without any strong central party figure like Indira Gandhi, the Congress party adapted itself for political survival. Congress again came to power in 2004 by forming a coalition Government called UPA (United Progressive Alliance) by joining with several regional parties. The Congress leadership under UPA was managed by several top politicians which acted as a collective brains of Congress Party. While Manmohan Singh was made the Prime Minister, the power of party was collectively in hands of Manmohan Singh, Chidambaram, Ahmad Patel, Sonia Gandhi, Mukherjee, Sibal etc. Along with these Congress politicians, other senior politicians and coalition partners like Sharad Pawar and Mamata Banerjee were also the part of collective brains of UPA govt.
Despite being in power, Congress struggled for control throughout its tenure. The investigating agencies launched various corruption investigations against ruling politicians & Supreme court gave adversarial judgements against ruling Government. Many of the cases against Congress-UPA politicians were politically motivated and a part of cold coup operations to bring down the Congress Government. CAG, the central Govt auditor for financial accountability presented various reports that Congress Govt has caused tremendous economic losses to the national treasury due to unsound economic policies. Much of these investigations were exaggerated nonsense but the pattern behind this was clear. A targeted campaign to malign and bring down ruling Congress Govt (read 1, 2 & 3).
What it really shows is that despite being out of power, BJP had strong influence over the investigating agencies, Supreme Court and Govt institutions. But that was not all, BJP also had a strong connections with the military & Intelligence. Army chief General VK Singh and Intelligence chief Sanjeev Tripathi were Pro BJP people along with many other Generals who went on to officially join the BJP after their retirement.
BJP also had a strong multidimensional street power despite being in opposition. On one hand BJP had its traditional base of religious militant organizations, gangsters & fanatics. On other hand BJP masterfully created another popular front of Anti-corruption movement which had a secular face. The anti-corruption movement was an umbrella for various groups - Ramdev & Ravi Shankar Black money movement, IAC Anna Hazare Lokpal movement, Civil society protests groups against corruption etc. These were various offshoots created by the BJP to target ruling Congress Government. They raised issues of Black money, corruption, accountability, women safety, inflation, nepotism etc. The idea of creating these street forces was a project of ex-Intelligence Pro-BJP officers like Ajit Doval.
Mass movements against Congress govt in 2011-12
People like Doval organized the color revolution in 2011-12 which did not bring down the Congress Government but greatly weakened it and tarnished its political image. The idea of creating Street movements was a strategy to conceal the religious fanaticism of Modi & BJP which was only popular in backward communal states like Gujarat. In other parts of India, people had not forgotten the scars of Gujarat communal massacres of 2002 which also resulted in BJP loosing power in 2004. So a multidimensional approach of creating street movements was implemented to target ruling Congress govt in urban parts of country. The religious militant organizations remained active in backward states like Gujarat & UP spreading their communal messaging while Anti-corruption movements were activated in Congress ruled states and capital, New Delhi. Congress did not have a concrete plan to deal with street movements that had a secular face.
In 2012, Congress once again found itself in similar predicament like 90s. The resurgence of Fascist BJP and a time to take a tough stand. What actions were needed? A lot needed to be done to save the country. The removal of Pro BJP military and intelligence officers and cleaning up of institutions from Hindutva agents. Crushing the Doval's color revolution with full force, that means invoking National security Act against Anna Hazare, Kiran Bedi, Ramdev, Ajit Doval etc and shutting down these street movements. But the Congress feared that BJP and religious militant organizations may start a civil war in India (just as they threatened in 90s). Instead of crushing the BJP sponsored color revolution, Congress foolishly gave them kid glove treatment (read 1 & 2). In 90s, the Congress surrender established the BJP and brought religious militant organizations into mainstream politics. In 2010s, Congress surrender resulted in consolidation of Fascism and marked the beginning of the end of liberal Democracy.
India's Political opposition after 2014 - Fascist BJP crushes all political opposition after taking power - Congress top leadership finished and party lost grass roots connections with all centers of power
There is night and day difference between BJP and Congress role as opposition. BJP while in opposition from 2004-2014 strangulated the ruling Congress party by giving fierce resistance on all fronts. The Congress role as opposition since 2014 has been pathetically weak and can be best described as continued capitulation in face of enemy. As i explained, the Congress worked as a collective brain of various people like Chidambaram, Sibal, Ahmad Patel, Mukherjee etc. A fundamental problem of Congress party is its failure to replenish its top leadership.
Much of the senior leadership of Congress is now dead and/or retired due to old age. Party strategist like Ahmad Patel, regional leader like Shiela Dikshit, senior leaders like Pranab Mukherjee etc passed away in recent years. Former PM Manmohan Singh (now 88 years of age) suffering from poor health has retired from active party politics. Other senior leaders like Mani Shankar Aiyar and Kapil Sibal are semi retired and also not involved in party politics. Chidambaram, who i believe is presently the most capable senior leader in Congress, is marred by politically motivated investigations on corruption and misuse of office on cases when he was a minister.
Many politicians of Congress party have quit the party and joined BJP or other opposition political parties. Former Congress minister like Jyotiraditya Scindia, regional leader like Rita Bahugune and senior politician SM Krishna have now joined BJP. Apart from the big Congress politicians, many smaller leaders MPs, MLAs, MLCs and party workers have also left Congress and joined the BJP or other political parties. To an outside observer, this may look shocking but politicians changing their parties like changing of clothes is quite common in Indian politics. Indian political parties and politicians are unlike traditional political parties in western countries where politicians are bound by some ideology and set of principles. In India, most politicians in parties are purely motivated by advancement of their political careers and accumulation of wealth & power. If they see that their political career is getting stalled in a particular party, they switch parties for their best interests.
There is a big vacuum in top leadership of Congress party as much of its senior leadership is now gone. The Congress which worked as collective brain under leadership of several top senior leaders is becoming brain dead. As party brain is dying, the party is getting paralyzed at its hands and feet. The Congress party has lost its street power and popularity in places which once were its strong grounds. The party is getting disconnected from important institutions like Military and Judiciary. On the other hand, Modi is able to capture these institutions very effectively.
Rahul Gandhi - A novice politician
Rahul Gandhi is projected as a political alternative to PM Modi. Rahul Gandhi, now 51 years of age has been in politics for more than 2 decades and as a parliamentarian for 17 years. Despite such a long political career, he has not held any union ministry portfolio in 10 years of UPA government (2004-2014), has not administered any state government as a chief minister or a state cabinet minister. Rahul Gandhi's tenures in Parliament also have no special achievements. He gives various speeches in parliament condemning ruling government on various issues but has not performed any real parliamentary functions. Rahul Gandhi has not been a part of any Parliamentary committees and panels that scrutinize functions of union government. I have not heard of any landmark legislation or paper drafted by Rahul Gandhi in his parliamentary career on any critical matters of India.
Rahul Gandhi is seen commenting on public issues regularly like on
inflation, unemployment, pandemic mismanagement, erosion of civil
liberties etc. He also comes up with his slangs to target prime
minister Modi and BJP politicians. Surely, Rahul Gandhi as many interesting slangs on Modi like 'Chowkidar chor hai', 'Modi is puppet of Adani & Ambani', But criticism of Government, raising
public issues and regular media appearance doesn't make one a national
leader. What are Rahul Gandhi's ideas for actually solving India's problems? We don't know as he never authored any legislation on any issue. Political commentary is one thing, actual governance is another. What is Rahul Gandhi's track record on governance? There is none because he has never exposed himself to actual governance responsibilities in any state government or union government when Congress is in power. How to reform our institutions and political system? How to solve India's structural problems? What should be our foreign policy? What should be our trade & industrial policy? I haven't heard or read any comprehensive proposals on these things from Rahul Gandhi.
What are Rahul Gandhi's connections with Indian institutions,
military, corporate India, grassroots movements on streets and
familiarity with "the system" of the country? I don't think he has any
connection (Rajeev Gandhi had similar problems). Surely, Rahul Gandhi has a team and a dedicated staff which
organizes his events, talking points and clever sloganeering. But
that doesn't connect him to any power centers of this country. In contrast, look at Modi. By favor or by fear, Modi has built strong
connection with military, establishment and institutions. These connections were
built not just after Modi won 2014 elections but much before that. I am not talking about the merits of Modi's policies and his governance. I am just analyzing Modi's management of power. Modi has cultivated a long political career from Gujarat to new Delhi.
Rahul Gandhi is nicknamed Pappu by India's ruling BJP party. Pappu is used as a nickname for kids in India and also used as a Hindi slang to describe a novice amateur person. I am not interested in commenting on personal insults and name calling in politics. But there is a deeper meaning to this pappu slang. Lets look at political image and career of Rahul Gandhi and compare it in perspective of someone like Modi. I am not talking about comparison in terms of policies, i am only talking about their track record in power politics, and how ruthlessly they wield power.
Congress Party has also turned its party positions into a ceremonial posts. Rahul Gandhi has been the General secretary and President of Congress party. Compare Rahul Gandhi's role as Congress President or secretary to role of someone like Rajnath Singh, Amit Shah & Advani who held same positions in BJP. While you can criticize the corruption & malfeasance of BJP politicians, its undeniable fact that these BJP leaders were fully committed to their role as Party president and secretary. Management of political party is among the toughest jobs in Indian politics. Its not some part time ceremonial job as Congress made it to be under Rahul Gandhi.
In crude terms, Presidents and general secretary of party are like Boss and Underboss positions which comes with great responsibilities. The job of Bosses is to ruthlessly protect their turf, expand it and keep every party member in check. Look at someone like Amit Shah & Rajnath Singh on how they run their enterprise (i mean political party). They use favor & fear, bribery & intimidation, every tool at their disposal to expand their party and keeping control of all their members. They are not bound by any moral principles or ideological boundaries. Orchestrating communal riots, killing innocent people, destroying innocent lives, blackmail & extortion, buying & renting rival politicians - BJP Bosses go to any length, do anything and everything to consolidate their power. Now compare the BJP Bosses to someone like Rahul Gandhi.
Is it a surprise that BJP has nicknamed him as pappu? A novice politician who has no strength to swim in political ocean full of sharks. Modi & Shah have outwitted leaders like Chidambaram and Manmohan Singh who were much wiser and cunning politicians than Rahul Gandhi. Does Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi have a standing against shrewd political masters like Modi and Shah?
Regional opposition Parties fighting for survival - BJP's battle with smaller parties - Smaller parties coming together to protect their sphere of influence and political survival - India is missing a united front on national level
As Congress party is fading away, the opposition to Modi's BJP is coming from smaller determined parties. India is not like US or UK where you only have two parties or four parties, India has a multiparty political system with dozens of major parties which contend at state & local level politics. These parties are also relevant at national level as they help in forming coalitions with other parties for Parliamentary majority and establishment of central ruling government.
While BJP has taken over many smaller parties, there are various parties that are giving a stiff resistance to BJP like in NCP/Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, TMC in West Bengal, Communists in Kerala etc. These parties have popular local support and street power in their states which is making difficult for BJP to destroy these parties. I don't think that resistance by these regional parties is based on principles to defend Democracy and constitution of India (as they claim), their resistance is purely for their self defense and political survival. As Arun Shourie once said, many of the politicians of these regional parties are in mortal danger from Modi's ruling BJP and surrender is not an option for them.
The modus operandi of BJP in dealing with friendly regional parties is simple. To form a govt, BJP form alliance with parties in places where its in minority. Then BJP starts eating up its coalition partners and take over their sphere of influence. The politicians, party workers and leaders of regional parties are inducted into BJP by giving them lucrative incentives. The top leadership of these smaller parties soon find themselves without any hand and feet. The Chief minister of such coalition state govt is just a puppet of BJP's central leadership in New Delhi and forced to walk a tightrope on central govt policies even if they are unpopular or illegal. BJP's alliance with JDU is a good example of this model. In Maharashtra, Shiv Sena which was a long time partner of BJP was able to realize this political model of Modi's BJP and broke away its coalition with BJP. This has unleashed a bitter conflict between former allies which we are witnessing playing out these days.
In South, the Communists (LDF coalition) in Kerala are committed secularist with a strong support from secular electorate. The politics of religious populism, Ram temple and Hindutva has no traction in Kerala where population is well educated and informed compared to backward states of North India like Uttar Pradesh. Its unsurprising that BJP won zero seats in Kerala state elections of this year despite BJP trying various nefarious plots and using secular credentials of career bureaucrat Metroman.
In Punjab, the Akali Dal is also forced to walk away from its alliance with BJP due to crisis over new farm laws. The central legislation by BJP forced upon states has made it very difficult for several coalition partners to work with BJP. The smaller parties which are coalition partners with BJP see that blindly following BJP's central agenda is a path to their political career suicide. New farm laws are greatly unpopular in states like Punjab & Haryana and its almost foolhardy even for BJP's partners to support them. Of course there are politicians like JDU's Nitish Kumar which are completely unprincipled that their only ambition is being a Chief minister even if that means becoming a total puppet.
While the Congress party is fading away, the resistance to BJP is coming from smaller regional parties and remnants of its former allies. Even with all the power of Modi's BJP and lack of central opposition party, the regional parties have thrown a spanner in the wheels of Modi's autocratic BJP. The opposition parties are also trying to stitch up a national alliance to take on BJP but without a strong central party to keep everyone together, the alliance isn't materializing. Various efforts are being made by senior politicians like Mamata Banerjee and Yashwant Sinha but a unified national front has not come to fruition so far. Here again, we can see that there are opposition forces to fight BJP but Congress has become so weak that it cannot provide any central platform to bind these forces together.
India's Political culture - Opposition political parties lack fresh ideas - No ideas on political reforms and solving longstanding structural problems - Several of BJP's bad policies are continuation of past Congress policies
India's Parliamentarians - Nearly half of MPs have criminal cases against them
Our Democracy, constitution and electoral system needs structural reforms for a healthy political system. Political parties in India in their present forms are more like criminal enterprises and governance under these political forces is kind of neo-feudalism. Many of our politicians are gangsters, criminals, members of religious militant organizations, big landlords and oligarchs of the country. Broadly speaking, the disastrous Modi regime in power right now is not the problem, its a symptom of a bigger fundamental problem. That is our failed dysfunctional political system which has culminated into someone like Modi.
The disastrous policies and governance failures of Modi's BJP is legendary but the opposition political parties also lack fresh ideas. Since BJP is based on hardline religious populism of hindutva, ideally opposition political parties should have a strong secularist standing. Instead, the Congress and other political parties are adopting a soft-hindutva position (read 1, 2 & 3). Modi and BJP politicians are famous for visiting Hindu temples and parading at religious roadshows. Nowadays, opposition political leaders are also practicing these rituals like copy cats. In terms of politics of religion, BJP has dragged opposition parties towards the right.
In terms of economy, while Modi's track record has been a complete disaster, the track record of past governments of Congress and Coalitions in recent history is not extraordinary either. High unemployment, inflation, corruption, lack of development and economic mismanagement were also rampant under previous governments. In fact, these were among the reasons which sunk the popularity of past governments.
While Modi has embarked upon foolhardy policies like Demonetization and new citizenship laws, some other bad policies of Modi regime are actually continuation of past Congress govt. BJP's scandalous asset monetization pipeline - a glorified term for privatization, is actually the re-branding of Congress policy of PPP (Public Private partnership). Here in Delhi, Congress privatized State electricity distribution to Reliance energy. Delhi's Airport express Metro line was leased to Reliance Infra for 30 years which ended in tremendous losses. Congress was also trying to privatize state water distribution system in Delhi.
Fiscal Austerity which is one of the hallmark of Modi govt began under Congress. The fiscal consolidation committee, budget cuts, moratorium on new govt job creation and various austerity policies etc were initiated by Congress and later continued by Modi's BJP. The Aadhar Biometric database system for social welfare programs was initiated by Congress under leadership of billionaire Nandan Nilekani, founder of Indian tech company Infosys. Now BJP has made it a national ID system for everything including taxation, banking, financial transactions, civil records etc. While the govt touts it as a system of effective delivery & good governance, there are serious concerns about the cyber security aspects, privacy and potential abuse of this National Biometric system.
Another highly dubious policy recently formulated by BJP and now also peddled by opposition political parties is on the issue of OBC reservation. Modi's OBC bill gives right to state governments to notify OBC castes, and along with this another dubious idea of Caste census proposed by BJP politicians and foolishly also co-opted by several opposition parties as well. These laws on OBC will do little to address caste exploitation in India. Rather they will become a regressive political instrument to polarize & divide population. Castes and communities will be pitted against each other for political gains. This is similar to politics of religion which is used to divert people's attention from bread & butter issues, social security, jobs and livelihood.
India's failing Democracy and electoral system - India's problems not just due to corrupt & incompetent political parties - Structurally weak and flawed electoral system also a contributing factor - A brain dead electorate - Impossible for a competent and visionary political force to emerge in present decayed system
Given all the corruption, incompetence and barbarism of our political parties, a natural question comes to mind is why there are no healthy and competent political parties in India? How come reactionary religious and corrupted political parties and criminal politicians rise to the top? I have discussed these problems in my earlier article. But the core summary of this is that real issues don't matter in Indian politics. Issues like unemployment, poverty, social security, education etc are suppressed by foolish issues of religious populism, Hindutva, Ram temple, caste politics, nationalism etc.
Electorate doesn't understand their very basic interests - things like jobs, social security, education, household income and their basic human rights. You can forget about our electorate understanding anything about industry & trade policy, foreign policy, environment, Global warming, pandemic and other complex challenges facing the country today. Majority of our electorate population is uneducated/lowly educated/illiterate, socially backward and tribal cultured. India is a deeply tribal society based on castes - Jats, Gujjars, Patels, Rajputs, Thakurs, Yadavs etc which vote for their politicians according to their tribal interests. Similarly there are politicians who try to capture Dalits and backward classes, Muslim vote bank and other minorities. Since most of our tribes/castes are under umbrella of Hindu religion, BJP's strategy is to capture this broad vote bank.
Distant cousins - Populist leaders duping ignorant, backward and economically depressed electorate. Left - Modi's religious populism of Hindutva. Modi meditating in a cave. Right - Donald Trump's cultural populism. A reality TV star with magnetic personality.
Since much of the electorate is uneducated and backward, its easier to fool them with demagogy and diversions. To an outside observer who wonders how dictator like Modi has manage to win elections, the answer is similar to rise of Trumpism in America. In America you have Sociopath Trump who won 2016 elections based on cultural populism and Kayfabe personality. Trump a reality TV personality, famous for his TV shows and his majestic style of conversation created a cult following in America. Trump's slogans of 'America first' , 'Make America great again' and 'drain the swamp' resonated with his lowly educated, socially backward, mentally unstable and economically depressed followers.
Rise of BJP and Modi in India is not very much different from rise of Trump's populism in US except much larger section of Indian population is economically depressed, ignorant and backward compared to developed nation like US. In India, religious populists, tribal leaders and Hindutva clerics use their demagogy to capture imagination of poor ignorant electorate. Coming back to the basic problem - its nearly impossible for a competent and visionary political party to emerge in our political system where the electorate doesn't understand national issues and their own self interests. Also criminals and Mafias have penetrated so deeply in our political system, now there no room for middle class bourgeois with healthy thinking to participate in politics.
I see many political commentators complaining that Rahul Gandhi or other other politicians are unable to spread their messaging to electorate. The problem is not really the messaging, the problem is also the electorate which do not have interest in issues of bread & butter and basic livelihood. Electorate chase after Ram temple, nationalism and Hindu Rashtra dreams. Uttar Pradesh politics is prime example of decayed political system and ignorant electorate. Hindu Cleric Ajay Bhist has screwed up everything in UP - state's economy, pandemic response, human development index etc. The state lags far behind in development metrics like per capita income, social security, state healthcare coverage, education system, employment etc compared to most states (Bihar follows UP closely). Despite all the mismanagement and bungling, the Cleric Chief minister is quite popular in his state.
How can Political opposition defeat Modi's BJP? - Modi is not invincible
The big question is how can Modi's BJP be defeated. The manifestos of opposition political parties, their talking points and their attack on Modi's scandals and corruption don't really matter. Modi's BJP has five power centers by which it exercises its power. In short Modi has control over military, institutions, investigating agencies, oligarchs and religious militant organizations. To dislodge BJP from power, the opposition parties need to break BJP's control over these power centers. In crude terms, the opposition parties need to score at least 3/5 to win over BJP. If Opposition political parties can checkmate BJP on at least three of the five power centers, then Modi's BJP can be defeated.
India's political picture is doom and gloom, as India transforms from a liberal Democracy to an elected dictatorship. Even in such dark times, there are rays of hope. There are elements of resistance and bits & pieces of political opposition fighting BJP. It requires efforts by smart politicians to put these bits and pieces together and stitch everything into a national political opposition.
In terms of street politics, various street movements are emerging to counter BJP. Movement against CAA, against Privatization & austerity and movement against regressive farm laws are prime examples. Its well known that BJP has army of lakhs of goons in its religious militant organizations. But the strength of mass movements against BJP is much greater. Also the center of Modi's street power is focused in North India and specially backward states like Bihar, UP & Gujarat. Beyond these states, the popularity of BJP is not so great. Even without a national political opposition that can support and galvanize street protests, mass movements are emerging on their own. While BJP has infinite money to throw in elections campaigns, its still not able to win several critical state elections because BJP doesn't have street power and popularity in these states. Several opposition parties have street power in states to outplay BJP in local elections. Kerala and West Bengal are such examples.
In terms of judiciary, Modi has got full support to all his illegal policies and corruption from courts until recently. But now there is some hope with new Chief Justice of Supreme Court and also proactive behavior of several high courts in wake of pandemic and civil rights issues. I think what Supreme court now needs to do is give judgements on stalled constitutional cases. Recall that Modi has made unconstitutional laws like new Citizenship Act. For whatever reason, Supreme court so far has been hesitant to hear petitions on this unconstitutional and highly illegal law. Now Supreme court needs to fast track these constitutional matters and deliver its judgement.
Modi also enjoyed backing from military and establishment, thanks to officials like VK Singh, Bipin Rawat and Doval. But now Modi's image of invincible national leader is dented with his foreign policy blunders on China and crisis at LAC. Recall that BJP and media built a farcical image of Modi - an invincible leader, who is respected by other nations including big superpowers. India's isolation in region, expansion of China and India's helplessness is now quite visible. India's domestic situation is quite unstable with economy in shambles, mass protests on streets and policy paralysis in govt. I feel that many people in military and establishment who once favored Modi have now changed their minds by 180 degrees.
The crisis of Modi's centralized governance is also visible at instability of puppet BJP State Governments. The frequent changing of Chief ministers in Uttarkhand and in Gujarat & Karnataka is a sign of weakness and mismanagement. The weakness of Modi's centralized governance comes from its inherent nature, only Modi & Shah are allowed to be the kings and decision makers while rest of the politicians need to live under their shadow. Indian govt, its political and social dynamics is too complex to be run like a 'one man show'.
India is going through its worst phase in its recent history and this must be reversed. Victory of right over wrong, truth over lies - these are empty slogans in children's story books. There is no guarantee that truth will prevail and country is always destined to become a shining Democracy. Survival of Nations is not guaranteed and nations do fall apart. India is now in advanced stage of State failure. There is only a finite time for a country to realize its failures and change its political course. Some say that India has already passed that point of no return.
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