Future of Ukraine conflict under Trump

US position on Ukraine is taking a drastic turn with Trump back in White House. The Biden policy on Ukraine was cautious but slightly flawed as it was based on open ended conflict and with no diplomatic engagement with Russia. Biden's policy was driving Russians out of Ukraine by raising the cost of conflict for Russia so much that Putin will either withdraw or there will be regime change in Russia. Since Russia was taking a beating, the policy was slowly taking the conflict to military victory and keeping war below the Nuclear threshold. The criticism of Biden's policy was that it had no endgame strategy. This article summarizes the shortcomings of Biden's Ukraine policy. The policy of seeking a military victory might have produced results if US maintained a commitment to it for few more years. 

But then Trump won the elections and took the Ukraine policy to the other extreme end. Past policy was - No dialogue and focusing on military victory. New policy is - rapprochement with Russia and abandoning Ukraine completely. I keep aside the figleaf and smoke & mirrors of Trump's policy. The so called initiative for ceasefire, the deal for Ukraine's mineral reserves and Trump's proclaimed efforts of trying to find a peaceful solution are all deceptions. In clear & simple terms, Trump regime is just walking away from all obligations towards Ukraine. Ukraine is abandoned, thrown under the bus and being handed to Russia on a platter. Experts are still trying to figure out Trump's motive for such an unprecedented turn.  

 

Several reasons for Trump's anti-Ukraine policy are presented. While some experts say that Trump is an incompetent fool who has no knowledge on foreign policy, other go as far as saying that Trump is allied with dictator Putin. My own take about Trump's mindset is this which dictates his decisions. While several reasons can be attributed to Trump's positions, his vindictiveness is a strong driver of his actions. This takes us back to 2019.

We recall the first Trump impeachment of 2019 on Ukraine aid scandal. Trump was running for re-election and Biden was anticipated as main contender against Trump in 2020 election although Biden had not won the process of primaries. Trump stalled weapon deliveries and aid to Ukraine. In that infamous phone call which lead to impeachment, Trump pushed Ukrainian President Zelensky to prosecute Joe Biden's son Hunter Biden on some corruption issue as a quid pro quo for Ukraine aid delivery. The goal of Trump was obviously to implicate Joe Biden in a scandal and ruin his Presidential campaign. 

However, as we recall that the phone call was revealed to the public and it became a big scandal for Trump. While Trump was not convicted, Biden was able to run a successful campaign and defeat Donald Trump in 2020 elections. Had Zelensky assisted Trump in witch hunt against Biden's son, it would have scandalized Biden's election effort and ended it prematurely. Thus Trump has this vendetta against Zelensky and possibly perceives him as a reason for his defeat in 2020.

There are other factors behind Trump regime's policy on Ukraine as well. Obviously it's true that Trump regime is full of incompetent political cretins who have no understanding of anything let alone foreign policy. Also, Trump has a strange affection with Putin and people like Orban because Trump himself has authoritarian style of governance. But Trump's deep rooted pathological vindictiveness is the strongest force which drives his thinking. 

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