Regime change in Syria

By all appearances, the regime of Syrian President and dictator Bashar-al-Assad is near dissolution. Syria endured a civil war against terrorist groups which were funded from abroad for last 12 years. The terrorist groups like ISIS, Al Qaeda, Al Nusra, FSA etc were various militant organizations originally funded by US, Israel, Turkey, Saudis etc to overthrow Assad for variety of reasons. For US, the support to Syrian rebels was based on mission to export democracy - the usual argument. For Israel, the motive was to expand its territorial boundaries, usurpation of territory of neighboring states as it has always done. For Turkey and Saudis etc, the motive was getting a piece of territory and influence in this ethnic region. Saudis in previous decade had bitter rivalry with Shiite bloc of Iran. Erdgan in Turkey was bitterly against Kurds as well as Syrian regime.

The conflict had largely boiled down in last 5-6 years but now there is a very sudden flare up of conflict with new rebel faction of HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) that took over toppled Syrian cities in a matter of days. The names like HTS of rebel organization matters little, these are fanatic radicals and congregation of various terror outfits that have been around in the region since past decade under various kind of names & receiving material support from abroad. This is not any organic and democratic movement for positive change, these are fanatic killers and mercenaries. 

Why did the conflict suddenly flared at lightning speed and why there was very little resistance against it? First, it appears that Russia has now abandoned Syria. Syria was home to Russian naval & military bases in Tartus, Latakia etc. This relationship between Russia and Syria dates back to Soviet Union era. To protect its strategic interests, Russia backed Assad regime since the start of insurgency by giving it material and military support for a long time. Russian Air force and Russian Wagner group directly participated in conflict to stop fall of Assad regime. However, many things changed in last 3 years. 

The Russian military resources are now stretched very thin due to intensive war in Ukraine. It's possible that Russia no longer has defense assets to sustain its positions in Syria however crucial it was. Russia has taken tremendous losses in Ukraine conflict and may no longer afford to carry Assad regime anymore. Without the support of Russians, the rebel forces would've disposed Assad regime a long time ago.

Secondly, US and Israel have opened a war front in middle east. To naive pundits, the genocide in Gaza is an independent atrocity by Israel. They also believe that Bibi is acting on his own, committing war crimes. But from a broader perspective, this is a new front of war by Israel against Iran & all its satellites including Hezbollah, Houthis etc. This front is fully planned and supported by US to neutralize Iranian bloc in middle east. This includes Hezbollah whose top military commanders are now already assassinated by Israel. This includes Houthi rebels which are already target of US air & naval strikes. And this includes Assad regime which Israel & US have now decided to overrun. 

Apart from Russians, the Iranian regime has also been a strong backer of Assad regime. Iranian revolutionary guard, Hezbollah and Shiite militias have been actively participating in Syrian civil war on side of Assad. However, with intensive war waged by Israelis, with full weapon, diplomatic and material backing of US against Iran & its proxies, the Iranian defense assets are also stretched pretty thin. Israel has also assassinated numerous commanders of Iranian regime just like fate of Hezbollah, thus making it incapable to operate on multiple fronts. Hence, it appears that Iran has also withdrawn its support to Assad regime.

Now with Russians and Iranians withdrawing their critical support to Assad regime and foreign (Israel & US) sponsored terrorist groups relaunching their military campaign in Syria, Assad regime has no resources on its own to defend itself. The Syrian conflict is actually one element of global power struggle between US & NATO against Russia & 'illiberal order' (Russia, Iran, North Korea etc). We see this global power struggle play out in Europe with Ukraine conflict. The events unfolding in middle east are another dimension of this broader conflict. The Genocide in Gaza was a plan to goad Iran into the conflict. Iran has been giving drone supplies to Russia for Ukraine conflict. North Korea is giving troops to Russia for Kursk defense. All these things are connected. 

The usual mainstream conventional thinking is that a brutal dictator in middle east has been overthrown for the pursuit of Democracy. This has nothing to do with democracy or any organic social change. This is part of heated geopolitical rivalry between US and illiberal world order (Russia, Iran, North Korea & their proxies). The overthrowing of Assad in Syria may create a chaos and anarchy as recently happened in Libya after overthrow of Gaddafi. While Assad and Gaddafi were brutal dictators, i do not see that removing them purely from outside geopolitical motives will lead to creation of democratic political system. An endless civil conflict and instability awaits for Syria and its people.