Biden's last acts in foreign policy
Israel, US and Turkey backed rebels overran Syria and Assad flee the country. Don't be mistaken by public stance of US that they're concerned about threat of terrorists groups (ISIS, HTS, Al Nusra etc) influence in Syria after fall of Assad regime. These groups are actually assets of US, Israel, Turkey and they are terrorists indeed without any democratic or humanistic inclinations.
The fall of Assad regime comes with festive gloating by Americans, Ukrainians, Europeans and west in general. It's a victory indeed as Russia's only ally (dating back since USSR) is now overthrown. Russia's critically important military bases in Syria may also be evicted. These bases were critical for Russia's supply line and outreach into Mediterranean as well as Africa. Russia has surrendered Syria without much fighting as it knows that resistance is futile at this time because Russia's military is ruined by Ukrainian fiasco.
Russian regime is vulnerable. And they face great crisis in immediate neighborhood Ukraine. It's also a humiliation of Putin who in 2017 regarded Syrian military operation as great success of modern Russian foreign policy. Russia will also lose its influence in Africa. It appears that Russia is now turning its policy to solidify status of regional power. Regional power means ability to exercise strong influence in immediate region through non-military (and sometimes military) means to achieve favorable outcomes in neighborhood.
The dream of being a superpower to influence the world and far away continents is now over for Russia. Even in region, Russia's situation is dire as Ukraine war has drained Russian military resources, ruined Russian economy and destroyed its demography which was already in serious crisis before 2022. Now all the above perspective was about damage to Russian global geopolitical position which undoubtedly has taken big hit on the chin. But what about the perspective from middle east security and stability? Western pundits especially pro Ukraine experts like Timothy Snyder have nothing to say on this. All they have is gloating about another defeat of Russia which undoubtedly it is.
Future of middle east security
For western pundits these days, everything is about Ukraine war and nothing else matters. However, there is grave overlooking of serious instability arising in middle east which is created by US, Israel & NATO (Turkey is also NATO member). The humanitarian destruction in middle east created by Israel with backing of US in last year alone is probably comparable to that of genocide committed by Russia in Ukraine. Israel's bombing of Gaza, Israeli settlers terrorist attacks against Palestinians in west bank, Israel's attack on Lebanon and now bombing of Syrian infrastructure - all with material backing of US - has created a tremendous humanitarian carnage.
If history tells us anything, Syria is now at risk of breakup and looting by regional powers like Israel and Turkey, with backing of US. What happened in Iraq and Libya may well be repeated in Syria. Breakup of nation creates great humanitarian tragedies - mass murders, sectarian killings, terrorism, millions of refugees and other disasters. US and Biden Administration is among the perpetrator parties of this carnage.
A critical question is whether the rundown of Syria even necessary. Surely US achieved a strategic victory by evicting Russia's long time ally in region. But what about its implication to the region? Has US considered that? Has US weighted the humanitarian carnage it will create in middle east? Assad, like Gaddafi, was a brutal dictator but under Assad regime, there was a degree of stability (territorial integrity) in the region. The terrorists replacing Assad are not humanitarians by any means and they have absolutely nothing to do with democracy. Does it make any sense by rehabilitating ISIS/Al Qaeda/Al Nusra/HTS terrorists into a national regime? These are fanatics, killers and mercenaries which are as bad (probably worse) as Assad.
It's well known that Biden administration is departing in matter of weeks. Donald Trump replacing Biden in White House in few weeks is an unfit, incompetent and destructive to US security interests. This is creating a sort of panic in US establishment and Biden administration in final few days. Hence they are taking some last minute measures. Are these measures sensible? While US evicted Russian ally Assad from Syria giving a strategic victory. This may come at tremendous humanitarian costs to Syria and middle east which might be disintegrated and ruled by various terror gangs while its territories usurped by regional powers; Turkey & Israel in particular.
It also merits thinking about what exactly will US & NATO achieve by evicting Assad specifically from perspective of Ukraine conflict. Russians have quietly accepted their humiliating defeat and will probably transfer their military assets to their home bases. Russians didn't have any inclination for resistance in Syria. In fact they readily accepted their defeat & will probably try to work out some sort of new diplomatic arrangement with new Syrian regime. That's why the rollover of Assad regime was finished within just 13 days. A conflict that originally started 13 years ago.
If anything, it shows that Russia will now be more focused on regional power doctrine and thus seeking favorable outcome in Ukraine rather than defending its assets far away in Syria which makes no sense right now. After his election loss, Biden authorized Ukraine to use certain long range American given missiles against Russia. This will not change calculus of Ukraine conflict in matter of few weeks of what remains of Biden administration. It appears that these are hasty decisions which are made in anxiety about incoming Trump regime.
While much of current focus is on Russian aggression in Ukraine, the reality cannot be ignored that US & its allies have a track record of destruction of nation states, inciting terrorism and color revolutions and balkanizing regions in the world through hard & soft power. Pro Ukrainian pundits like Snyder say that Putin is the new Hitler. But if Putin is the new Hitler, we actually have two Hitlers in our times. Putin foolishly dreams of empire of Eurasian integration project, a nostalgia of USSR. Second Hitler is Bibi Netanyahu who is nostalgic about project of greater Israel by usurping neighboring states. While US is backing Ukraine against Hitler Putin. US is also backing Hitler Bibi to unleash carnage in middle east.
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