US Presidential elections and a plan to prevent anarchy

US elections are just few days away. I believe that Trump will lose these elections due to various reasons that i briefly summarize below. I also believe that there's high possibility that Trump & Republicans will not accept election outcome especially if their margin of defeat is narrow. This may result in anarchy and violence as witnessed at the end of previous Trump Presidency. To tackle this scenario, i propose certain steps to maintain peace and order in America.

Trump will lose - Question is the margin of his defeat

Trump will lose next month due to several reasons. First is that Trump is betting big on his base turnout strategy that entire Republican base will turn out to vote for him on election day which is very unlikely. Trump's core MAGA appeal has also shrunk in past four years which is evident from size of his rallies. A crucial factor in this election will be women electorate which i believe will vote overwhelmingly against Republicans due to Republican war on women; repeal of Roe vs Wade and draconian abortion bans in Republican states.

Trump's loss of mass appeal is also demonstrated by complete lack of mass mobilization in face of his arrests and indictments earlier in 2023 and 2024. While MAGA people appear in greater size on social media and skewed public polls, the actual ground presence of MAGA is declining. Many of the MAGA groups were broken up after arrests and incarcerations proceeding Jan 6 riots. Several leaders of MAGA groups were prosecuted, the movements withered away. 

Trump still manages a sizable MAGA following but it's insufficient to match the popular support of Democratic party which now enjoys length and depth in social support. From labour unions, to women, to students & youth, to middle and lower class - the support of Dem party has expanded. This is due to objective reasons. The improvement in economy, government welfare measures, American rescue plan, low unemployment, revival of manufacturing jobs and healthy growth which is strongest in G7 nations. 

Trump's model of politics is also repulsive to large section of American plutocratic class but with some exceptions. Much of the plutocrats prefer order and stability in country. Trump will cause upheaval in American economy that will destabilize the plutocratic order. American ruling class refuse to take this risk. Trump's blanket tariffs, deportation of migrant workers and reversal of Biden's Green economic initiatives will be highly disruptive. Hence plutocrats are pouring big money in Dem Party campaign. While Trump promises big tax cuts, deregulation and privatization to Wall Street & billionaires, the risks of social anarchy and economic instability is too great if Trump is given power.

A large section of American establishment, the blob, the defense industry etc also see long term threats to their strategic interests under Trump rule. The equation is simple; Trump = Chaos. The American establishment thinks long term and they cannot afford a foreign policy chaos of Trump presidency especially when world is in too much instability already. American establishment and plutocratic class prefers a predictable and conventional political leadership which Kamala Harris and Walz offer. This is diametrically opposite to erratic and highly unpredictable nature of Trump.

Trump's social support and populist appeal has diminished. Trump has lost appeal in plutocratic circles. Trump had no appeal in American establishment even in his first term. With such lack of appeal in all arenas, i do not believe it's possible for a candidate to win Presidency. Trump may still win because elections are unpredictable gamble but this however is unlikely. Trump may lose in a close race which can be another crisis in the making. Trump will not accept his defeat and if defeat margin is small, he will again try to create social unrest.

Measures for November 5 and thereafter

Assuming Trump tries to recreate past scenario to refuse election results, it's imperative to plan ahead to minimize social unrest and violence. Several steps are to be planned in advance.

   

1. Cutting exposure of Trump to the public. Trump should be detained, put under house arrest or special detention facility. Trump's internet access should be shutdown completely. Associates of Trump who reject election results and overtly or covertly instigate violence should also be detained. 

2. Shutting down of disinformation news media and internet platforms. News media (especially Fox, NewsMax etc) and internet platforms X/Twitter accounts and Truth social etc which spread election disinformation be curtailed and even shut down if necessity arise. 

DHS/FBI should start compiling a list of all disinformation channels and internet outlets which would likely to create disorder in wake of election results. Such accounts should be identified and immediately marked for suspension at the first sign of trouble. If need arises, Truth social and X should be suspended entirely if the owner of these companies refuse to comply with government order of removing election disinformation. 

3. All government agencies should be prepared to fulfill their roles for any crisis. FBI, National guard, Secret service, DHS, local law enforcement etc should start monitoring of threats to peaceful elections, security of election workers, politicians, institutions etc. A liaison office at White house should be created to co-ordinate all agencies.  

4. SCOTUS remains a wild card. Having given immunity to Trump and sabotaging Trump's prosecutions, the SCOTUS judges may try to hand Trump a stealthy victory in case of any legal dispute (like Bush vs Gore). If such illegal power grab is attempted, Dem party should reject SCOTUS orders, treat justices as hostile enemies of state and retire them forcefully. This is a dangerous scenario but it's the only way to stop Trump from getting power. 

5. Prepare for unexpected - Coup, riots, interference by foreign power, terrorism, assassination attempts. In face of defeat, mass revolt by MAGA seems unlikely but terrorism by MAGA groups and lone wolfs is a possibility. Leaking of damaging material, real or fabricated documents and deep fakes by hostile foreign power is a possibility. Assassination plots of Dem Party politicians is also a possibility.