Ukraine conflict and politics of settlement

Politics is continuation of war by other means

The saying looks erroneous but there's a meaning to it which i will get into below.  With Russia battered and bruised in Ukraine conflict, it appears that Russia don't have any strategy for victory and this certainly may be true. Russia's original plans for 'special military operation' were nonsensical fantasy of taking over Ukraine within a matter of days. Since then, the failures continue to pile up everyday as Russia is taking immense damage in terms of demography, economy, equipment and industry. 

The economy of Russia has come to a halt. On face value, Russia has managed to bypass extreme western sanctions to continue its trade & commerce with foreign countries both for defense procurement (in a limited way) and oil & gas exports through variety of channels. But this is a war economy which doesn't have any ideal national goals like technological advancement, improving standards of living of citizens, building infrastructure and industry, social progress etc. The war economy is only about burning national resources (including human resources) into the war furnace and for no meaningful ends. 

It can be said that, Russia has started a quagmire which it doesn't know how to get out of. But there may be one possible scenario that Putin is still eyeing for. A political solution in an environment favorable to Russia. An environment where Donald Trump is in power in America and far right wing parties are in power in major European states like France & Germany. Donald Trump & many of these extreme right politicians are incompetent and half deranged people but they don't have inclination for a long term war (or so they say). The reasons for their affinity to Russia are several and complex. I won't get into the reasons why Trump likes Putin or why AfD wants a rapprochement with Russia. 

Putin doesn't want this war now that it has become his nightmare. Putin doesn't have any capacity to continue this war for too long. Ukraine has the upper hand in war with infinite equipment and monetary backing from US and NATO states. Here another point has to be highlighted. The defense industry and economic potential of America is immense. It has ability to produce and dispense trillions of $$$ of war material without straining its economy. Recall the war on terror and how US continued long decades with those conflicts that cost them Trillions of dollar. However, US economy kept running well alongside the wars. US has great industry and power of wall street, US has the privilege of dollar being world reserve currency, US enjoys unmatched diplomatic attachment to other affluent nations in Europe and Asia Pacific - for whatever reasons the potential of US is manifold to that of any other nation.

Russia's economy crumbled very early on when Russia started this war. Russia will never be able to outmatch or even get close to Ukraine's capabilities given its backing by US & NATO. I think this is now pretty clear, even to Putin. Political solution is the only option for Putin. Here another point has to be highlighted. US and NATO are now eyeing for COMPLETE military victory. The Russians to be expelled from all Ukrainian territory and humiliated. The goal is to cripple Russia forever so that it can never mount any future aggression. 

Russia is blamed for political interference in US and NATO states. Russia is backing Donald Trump, Russia is backing AfD, Russia is backing xyz political party in NATO state is now a recurrent theme in the background of critical elections in US & Europe. How much of this is true? We don't know. Whether Russia is extensively meddling in politics of western nations or he's just biding time for victory of 'pro-Russia' politicians in west, nevertheless Putin is desperately looking for favorable political developments in west, especially in America. 

So the outcome of war, from perspective of Russia, lies very much in international politics and not so much on battlefield anymore. Western pundits (Timothy Snyder etc) claim that Trump will sell out Ukraine to Putin. Western pundits also say that we are in pre-world war period and Ukraine is like Czechoslovakia. Any compromise on Ukraine today will lead us to full scale war in Europe tomorrow. Decimation of Russia's military capabilities and a complete victory is the best hope for future peace. This may be true. But wars can happen through other dynamics. Like when Balance of Power system gets broken, there can be unforeseen consequences as Karl Polanyi discussed about the pre-WW2 era. 

The global re-alignment is happening. The global balance of power system is in the flux, and instability we are seeing in the world is its direct consequence. Today, any hint of political dialogue with Russia is branded as appeasement of Putin. Unfortunately, the political actors who call for such a dialogue are themselves moronic and deranged (Trump is prime example), so all their rhetoric is ipso facto dismissed as fringe political discourse. Surely, it was necessary as well as justified for US & NATO to back Ukraine in 2022. But such backing should be supplemented with suitable options for political settlement and surely with keeping Ukrainian interests in mind. And rational liberal western politicians need to also weigh the consequences and risks of vision for total & complete victory over Russia.