Balance of Power - Impact of Ukraine and Middle East conflict

What happens when system of Balance of power breaks down? ..... western bloc became too powerful after the dissolution of soviet union ..... Both in terms of military power and economic policy, the western world imposed itself on rest of the world. The consequences were brutal.

Western pundits have very certain view of things on Ukraine conflict. To end Ukraine war, US & NATO needs to have full commitment for a Ukrainian victory & nothing else. Whatever weapons & equipment Ukraine needs, howsoever Ukraine intends to use it, all should be provided & authorized to Ukraine to defeat Russia. The goal being expulsion of all Russians from Ukrainian territory. The risk of Nuclear war is zero. Backing Ukraine today is averting Chinese invasion of Taiwan tomorrow. Any attempt for political settlement is like 'Czechoslovakia' sell out of in 1938 which emboldened Hitler to start world war 2.

These are all stated positions of western pundits and US government hawks. If i can lift the veil a little, the thinking of these pundits and hawks have further motives. That is, it's necessary to cripple Russia so that it can never mount any foreign aggression in Europe. A 'complete victory' over Russia is necessary. A decisive blow is necessary to break the 'illiberal world order' of Russia-China-North Korea-Iran etc. And US unipolar world order, as it existed for brief period after end of USSR, should be restored. No other superpower or power bloc should exist with its independent policy or international vision. 

My position has been that the US & NATO states backing of Ukraine was necessary and justified in 2022 to preserve the existing world order (as flawed it may well be), and preserve the peace and stability of Europe. Russia was undoubtedly the aggressor in this war and all it's excuses for the war (like US sponsored a color revolution in Ukraine in 2014) have no merits in face of Russia's brazen attack on international system (as imperfect it is). 

But now, new dangers in world are emerging and Ukraine conflict cannot be viewed only from a perspective that we employed in 2022-23. Now there are threats of wider war among group of nations and Russia is not the only aggressor in this threat of broader conflict. US and Israel have opened a second war front in middle east against Iran and Lebanon. This war of aggression started by Israel with full backing of US is as much unjustified and illegal as the Russian aggression that started in 2022. This began with Israel committing a Genocide in Palestine with full material and financial backing of US. Then Hezbollah and Iran were goaded into the conflict as Israel has launched unprovoked bombings, terror attacks and assassinations in the region - all with backing of US.

Here, we should have no illusion about the stance of deniability of Americans. There is a narrative of western experts that Bibi has started this war and US is just a helpless spectator. All that is bunk. This aggression by Israel has complicity, material, financial and diplomatic backing of US. All that is not unsurprising. This is war of 'Democratic world' vs 'illiberal world order' as western pundits have always professed about. So now two fronts of war have opened. First was started by Russians in Ukraine. Second was started by Israelis & Americans in middle east. And additionally, US has also declared a trade war against China which deserves a separate discussion for later date.

Balance of Power

Branko Milanovic recently wrote an article where he mentions about parochialism of eastern Europeans and how they have a limited view of the world. Let's look at historian and pundit Timothy Snyder and how parochialism is quite evident. Snyder lives on an Island where the news of Genocide by Israel and war in middle east hasn't reached. Snyder, as a humanitarian, has spoken against Genocide of Ukrainian people (and that is correct) but since last year Snyder has never made any serious analysis of Genocide in middle east and how broader war in unfolding. 

Snyder also says that China will get emboldened to attack Taiwan if Russians are not stopped today in Ukraine. That may be true. But as global Balance of Power is crumbling, it's America and its allies that are starting new wars of aggression, not China. As per Snyder's world view, all the aggression in the world is done by authoritarian like Soviets, Russians, Chinese etc and Democratic nations are peaceful defenders. Snyder has never heard of aggression and wars by 'Democratic states'. But to give a little credit to Snyder, while he has not condemned the Genocide in Palestine, he has not supported it either as many other western pundits do under the slogan of "Israel has absolute right to defend itself". He has shown 'neutrality' on Gaza Genocide.

What is the concept of Balance of Power? It simply means that major countries have sufficient military and economic strength to have independent national policy. It also means that these nations have rational behavior and respects the sovereignty of others, and their behavior is kept in check by power capabilities of other powerful nations. Balance of power throughout various time periods have been between several national actors. In early 20th century, the breakdown of balance of power was an important contributor to world war 2 (see Karl Polanyi's thesis on this). After end of world war 2, balance of power system was established by the victors. Traditionally, the permanent members of UN security council have maintained balance of power. 

What happens when system of Balance of power breaks down? The 'Democratic world' or western bloc became too powerful after the dissolution of soviet union. And they started wars of aggression (Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria etc & countless bombings of nations across the world). They also thrusted 'Washington consensus' as supreme economic doctrine on rest of the world with economic institutions like IMF etc. Both in terms of military power and economic policy, the western world imposed itself on rest of the world. The consequences were brutal. There were humanitarian tragedies, collapse of nation states, chaos and anarchy in various parts of the world.

With dissolution of Soviet Union, the balance of power tilted to the west (US & Europe) for a while. But after great recession, failed long wars and economic stagnation of west; the balance of power started to tilt back. This time, there's no specific nation or power bloc that is a counterweight to western power bloc, which is very specific and defined with institutions like NATO and EU. Rather, a loose group of nations and certain infant imperfect institutions are acting as counterweight. They can be called 'illiberal order' of nations like Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Syria etc. But actually there's a broader group with infant institutions like BRICS, SCO and so called non-aligned states. And this counterweight to west not exclusively comprises of authoritarian states but it also includes Democratic states like Brazil, South Africa and India.

Now Russia, whether a good or a bad actor, was a structural stone in balance of power system. With Russia's weakening, the balance of power is significantly tilting towards the western bloc. It appeared that the liberal democratic western bloc is a rational force but now their actions demonstrate otherwise. The war and Genocide in middle east may be an indication of things to come. While it was necessary to preserve the world order in 2022 by taking a stand against Putin, i don't see similar urge by western pundits on issue of middle east war. And how can they? Because the west itself is complicit in this Genocide and aggression.

The politicians of west also demonstrate intellectual bankruptcy and decadence. Surely, not as much as their Russian counterparts. In America, grand event and standing ovation is organized by politicians to welcome Bibi Netanyahu; giving legitimacy to chief architect of Genocide and a war criminal. Some politicians also visit Israel and autograph Missiles and bombs that is to be dropped on 'enemies' in Palestine. Perhaps, this can be explained by their complete financial subservience to Israeli lobbies (like AIPAC) who bankroll these politicians. While the 'meddling' of Russia in US politics is frowned upon, same is never discussed about Israel which pours hundreds of millions in US politics to finance its favorable politicians and cast out its critics. 

Today, the positions of west are becoming absolute, like asserting the 'absolute right' of Israel to defend itself & thus giving it full material backing. Like the vision of 'total and complete victory' against Russia. It was said that Russia's call for dialogue is a ruse to gain time & regroup. Surely, we have to be skeptical over Russia's duplicity & deceptions as it was the aggressor. But today, even consideration of political settlement is outright dismissed. Meanwhile, the war is getting bigger and broader. I am concerned that when & if, a window for opportunity arrives for genuine political settlement to wind down the conflict with keeping Ukrainian interests in mind, the window may get ignored due to rigid conviction towards vision of 'complete victory'. And even if complete victory is somehow achieved, how will the America and its allies rule the world thereafter? Did America & its allies spread peace & prosperity in the world in post USSR era?

Still, giving benefit of the doubt to 'Democratic world' and 'liberal world order' and assuming that they have best interests of global peace in mind, the western leaders need to demonstrate their maturity and sensibility. West can start by shutting down war in middle east. Let's limit the world only to one war at a time - the Ukraine, and think of dealing with it. And US position on Ukraine will have international support only when it shows consistency in its positions on international law. Otherwise, the world will become fragmented and factionalized where only brute force will matter. The west cannot play on both pitches simultaneously; supporting aggression & Genocide in middle east and condemning the same in Ukraine.