US Presidential Debate

There's a knee jerk reaction by many progressives about the performance of Biden. Even many sensible centrist progressives who until few days ago were die hard Biden backers are now calling for Biden to step down. Why?

It was always clear to many people that Biden was too old to run for second term. His frailty (he can barely walk), fumbles & forgetfulness in recent public speeches and giving only controlled interviews since last several months were indicative of the problem. Given all this, Biden's debate performance is not at all surprising. But in US politics, there's a strong current of conventional thinking regarding supporting party candidates. Even sensible people who think on the contrary always go with the current without thinking of the consequences. When some people pointed out the possible risks with Biden candidacy, the Biden's fanbase dismissed them by pointing to Trump's public failures and convictions. It was even expected that GOP will be in chaos as Trump would not be a candidate as he will be convicted and sentenced to prison on number of criminal cases. But due to protection from courts (especially SCOTUS), Trump remains free. 

Two things have to be separated. Biden's old age and Biden's performance in office. While Biden appears physically weak and incapable, his track record in actual delivery and governance is quite good. The economy is strong, labour market is good, inflation is falling and wage gains (including that of middle & lower class) have outpaced price rises. US is the leading economic performer among G7 nations. Some points of contention about Biden's performance is his middle east policy (blank check to Bibi) and possibly unnecessary confrontation attitude towards China. But on domestic policy, Biden's track record is nearly impeccable. And mind you that Biden is operating in a very divided Govt; having to deal with a rogue supreme court, obstructionist MAGA Congress and Senate where Dems barely have a majority. Given all these circumstances, i wonder if any other President would be able to do anything better.

Again two things have to be separated. Actual substantive governance of President and Performative Public profile of President in American politics. Not only you have to deliver the goods but you have to publicly present yourself as capable and astute leader. In last debate, Trump who actually is the most incompetent & most unfit person ever but he presented himself as competent leader on debate stage. Biden stuttered, coughed and seemed lost at times. Undoubtedly, everything about Trump is a lie. He's a psychopath who presents himself as competent by deviously concealing his true incompetence and predatory personality. 

The crowd, the electorate, much of the voters don't measure politicians by their substantive track record. They vote for candidates based on their superficially likable personality. Trump is an empty vessel, the most incompetent and most dangerous person in this world but millions elected him in 2016 purely on his superficial personality of reality TV star. The performative aspect of candidate can be more important than their actual competence and policy ideas. This is unfortunate shortcoming of today's politics. And progressive supporters of Biden suddenly woke up to this rude shock. Biden didn't appear as presentable on public stage alongside Trump. Is this the cause of panic among progressives?

Since last year, there was this narrative created by many Biden fanbase that Biden is the irreplaceable candidate for Dem party. I was never convinced on this. Is Democratic party such a narrow field that they can't find a suitable replacement? Of course they could've at the right time earlier. Many of the same progressives who attacked others for suggesting to find replacement for Biden are now suggesting for replacement of Biden when it's too late. The Biden fanbase attacked their opponents by claiming that there's no mechanism for replacing Biden. If there was no mechanism then, how can there be now?

Even the debates itself were a mistake and Dems should've never agreed to it. You can't debate someone like Trump; a devious psychopath who doesn't believe in any principles and norms. He would lie, deflect, insult and project. He would gaslight millions of viewers with big lies. On top of that, Trump is a convicted felon and also out on bail on many other charges. How can such person be allowed on a Presidential debate platform? The debate format was also skewed with no fact checks for Trump lies but even otherwise it's impossible to fact check Trump who lies with every breath. 

If policies, substantive governance and actual track record determines outcome of elections, Democrats have nothing to worry about as Trump is unelectable as he's the worst President ever. Then there's also genuine grievances of electorate against the Fascistic Republican party. Like the GOP's war on women rights, GOP war on Social security & welfare, and GOP war against student debt relief. The women, the youth, the labour unions etc are a strong force that will passionately vote against Trump and GOP in general. Another thing to note is that there's a media frenzy against Biden, a general anti-Biden bias in Press since last few years. The media polls are not accurate reflection of political reality (recall the Red Tsunami that never came). While people vote on sentiments and performative aspects of politicians, the real issues can be the main driving factor in elections. In last few years, Trump endorsed candidates have been beaten & battered in local elections (1, 2, 3). This also indicates that Trump is a lot of hot air in media and internet but weak on ground politics. 

The problem with Dems and Biden fanbase is that they are worried that while Biden is not presentable and astute in performative aspects, the Trump's astuteness and charisma (which really comes out of his dangerous personality) may dupe American people once again as in 2016. Regarding dumping Biden for another candidate at this late stage, i think it's too late for that. Dems should now focus on making their campaign issue based rather than candidate centric. Increase their ground game on bread & butter issue based politics (Women rights, student loan, inequality, healthcare, social security etc). And later, Dem party also need introspection and future strategy for leadership transformation. This is not the right time to do just few months before the elections.