Trump indictment, Realpolitik and some possibilities
Trump indictment, this time on more substantive and serious charges has finally come. The timing of indictment is impeccable in big picture of things - that is shaping of 2024 Presidential race and GOP primaries. This presents opportunities to finally wrap up MAGA movement and alter the course of American sociopolitical drift.
Timing of indictment
Ideally Trump should've been arrested and indicted a lot sooner. The brazen crimes of Trump demanded immediate detention, indictment and swift trial after Jan 6 insurrection but it was difficult for certain political reasons among which was fear of wider civil unrest and riots. Trump left White House with American institutions compromised, social order highly polarized and Republican party highly radicalized - Trump left WH with a whole lot of mess (and stealing secret documents).
The Biden administration and various State DAs started their work systematically while carefully navigating the risks of handling Nuclear football of Trump. Investigation into Jan 6 riots in Bipartisan Congress committee and Justice Department investigation and prosecution on various fronts delivered positive results. The first order of things was neutralizing right wing militias (proud boys, oath keepers etc) who were a militant threat. These groups were broken up, members of these gangs convicted of sedition and other serious crimes. Hundreds of hooligans that marched on Capital Hill were also charged
Republican party is in thrall of Trumpism since 2016 and under the thumb of Trump. In normal political party, there are various leaders all having their share of power politics in a party but GOP in last several years became a one man show. In 2016, there was fierce resistance against Trump with Lindsey Graham, Cruz, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio etc trying to take down Trump. But after Trump's victory, all these opponents of Trump (as being opportunistic & unprincipled scoundrels) became his vehement supporters. They knew that under the era of Trumpism, there best place is sycophancy to the new MAGA Boss.
Now with coming 2024 elections, various GOP leaders are trying to capture power once again. Nobody is in politics for love and certainly not for Donald Trump. With opportunity of getting away from under Trump's thumb, all these opportunistic scoundrels will make their political moves. And that's a good thing for American politics. Evil fighting Evil will neutralize some of these scoundrels. The best hope is if they can collectively dispose of Trump from Republican party and kill the MAGA movement. Why Democrats need to spend so much energy to kill MAGA when GOP infighting can possibly do the same? Republican party is like a Mafia crime family with Trump as the Big Boss. There are under-bosses and they also thrive for power. They will act only when the right opportunity arrives.
Soon after the insurrection, it made sense for Republicans to support the Boss Trump and endorse the big lie of stolen elections. But with 2024 elections approaching, republicans see an opportunity to advance their own careers. There are at least 12 confirmed Presidential candidates for 2024 and i suspect more will announce their bids specially when it becomes clear that Trump is going down. I wouldn't be surprised to see Rubio, Romney or Cruz joining the race later depending upon the situation.
The big picture is that all of these GOP Presidential candidates are unelectable. All have thirst for power but they cannot win in national elections based on their outdated southern strategy. Republican candidates have nothing to offer in terms of substantive policies, ideas, reforms and programs. Many of these candidates are imitating Trump's brand of politics, thus becoming Trump clones in effort to capture voter base of Trump's MAGA. But reading by the polls, MAGA voters aren't interested in political brand (like woke brand of DeSantis) of other candidates. If Trump goes down, GOP will lose a large chunk of electorate who will sit out the elections, refusing to vote on GOP ticket if it's anyone other than Trump. That's a great incentive for Democrats in 2024 elections.
Why Trump's MAGA base is diminishing?
MAGA base has been steadily declining since 2020 for various reasons. The reasons are not that Trump's voters have realized the sham of Trump & destruction he caused to America. The real reasons are following. Trump created a cult based on projecting himself as a superhuman who will never fail & never fall. Trump promised a 'storm' that will wipe out the enemies but storm never came. The whole cult of Trump is based on narrative that he's infallible, unbeatable and invincible. But Trump is a failure and out of power, his cognitive mental & psychological health is deteriorating. His supporter militias are now in federal prisons, law is catching up to him as damning indictments keep coming and his allies ratting him out. This has created a cognitive dissonance among his followers, who have become more demoralized and dejected.
Another reason for decline of Trump's appeal is economic environment which is becoming unfavorable to Trump. Fascism has traditionally gotten stronghold in falling & desperate societies - economic decline, falling standards of living, high unemployment, socioeconomic inequality etc. While American economy is still far away from achieving many goals like solving issues of economic inequality, economic rights (universal healthcare, free college education, right to a decent paying job etc). Nevertheless, many positive things have been happening in American economy with new industrial policy (Bidenomics) which has great potential. The strong labor markets, record low unemployment, falling inflation and a lightning fast recovery from pandemic recession has put US economy on strong foothold. The rust belt of America (which voted for Trump in 2016) is seeing the benefits of new industrial policy as well.
What to do with Trump?
Trump's latest indictments carries maximum punishment of 400 years if he's convicted. And more indictments are on the way regarding Jan 6 riot, Georgia's phone calls, fake electors plot in various states which were all attempt to overturn 2020 elections. While Trump deserves to be punished for all the crimes there is a Realpolitik way of doing things. Trump's criminal history & brand of politics has some similarities with Spiro Agnew (VP of Nixon) who was boxed in by law enforcement for his corruption. Once thought to be a replacement for Nixon and strong contender for Republican Presidential candidate (1976), Agnew's political career came to a sudden sunset. As he realized that he has no chance of escaping accountability, he pleaded guilty on lesser charges and walked away from politics. The prosecutors likely had much more on Agnew to pursue but ending his political career was a better outcome.
There are two ways of looking at Trump. First is enforcing the rule of law to the letter - that will mean putting Trump into the grinder for all his brazen crimes and illegal acts. This way, Trump will go down as a Martyr of MAGA movement. Other way is offering a deal to Trump. He will plead guilty on lesser charges (legal experts can work out the details) & can be given a suspended sentence or a pardon. The guilty plea will include (unwritten) part that he will end his Presidential bid & end his political career forever. Apart from that, Trump should also concede his defeat in 2020 elections. If Trump unequivocally concedes his 2020 loss, give him a get out of jail free card. This sounds far fetched but there are tremendous benefits to this (if such deal is possible).
If Trump drops out of politics & concede his 2020 loss, MAGA movement will come to a quick end. The sociopolitical rehabilitation of America can begin sooner. Another bright side of it is that radicalized Republican party will lose significant political capital because it has been betting on Trumism for political victories. Trump's superhuman cult will be easily deflated and Trump clones (DeSantis & others) will also suffer setbacks in selling their brand of toxic politics. Trump is an old geezer & will die soon (like discredited Berlusconi of Italy) and MAGA will wither away. So if somehow Trump can be put to retirement in exchange of a deal which will minimize his punishment & offers him a way out of jail cell, it will be hitting two birds with one stone.
But the problem with this theory is that Trump might not accept any deal due to his psychopathology, he simply cannot pivot and simply cannot be appealed by rationale and reason - Trump is on autopilot mode of self destruction driven by his pathology. This we have to see. The strategy should be putting maximum pressure on Trump by speedy trials and exposing all his criminal acts. Maybe Trump can be boxed in and his survival instincts (if he has any) will kick in that will force him to surrender.
There's also a question of reversing cultic programming which experts like Dr Bandy Lee & others have been contemplating. How MAGA base & millions of Americans who have been in this cult for last 6-7-8 years can be cured? This is also a complex subject & more thought is needed on this. But to me, it makes sense that first step towards the rehabilitation of MAGA infected is giving them a shock and awe treatment of objective reality. A sudden collapse of Trump may well can achieve that. Once MAGA's head is cutoff, only then further inroads can be made into reversal of cultic programming.
Off-topic and Extra stuff - Opening song of Damages
Comments
Post a Comment