Ukraine conflict and threat to world order

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has created a climate of geopolitical instability and uncertainty not just in Europe but globally.  The motives of Russia are not clear. Surely, Russia has given a long list of grievances about west's hypocrisy and not keeping up with past promises. Russia says NATO has expanded beyond its promises, the color revolution in Ukraine, Americans have been imperialists and provocateurs, and Russia has a right to self defense. Surely, there are valid grievances but they do not amount to any immediate threat to Russia. What motivates Russian aggression? I don't know. There are several theories on it but that's another discussion. Some experts say that Putin's external aggression is motivated by his regime's domestic failures.

My focus is on specific point. Russia claims that Ukraine is not a real country. This is dangerous doctrine. I know there's a past history of Ukraine, its special place in old Soviet Union, the history of Crimea, the ethnic connections with Russia are undeniable. But to say that Ukraine is not a country is dubious narrative and this kind of doctrine has far reaching consequences that can unravel the world order. This doctrine if applied by other nations can unfreeze many old conflicts around the world and lead to chaos. We Indians can say that Pakistan is not a country. The British carved it out from greater India. The language, the culture of Pakistan is common to India. India has more Muslims than entire Pakistan. So Pakistan is not a real country (many ultra right groups in India believe that Pakistan is an artificial country).

Chinese can say that they don't like the McMahon line and India is not really a country. India is a loosely held crumbling federation of states. The British ruled India and many other countries in the region in past centuries. The borders of region are drawn according to British imperial policy objectives of the past. So China can say that they don't believe the existing territorial demarcation drawn by British. China already claims 38,000 Sq km of Indian territory and claims ethnic-cultural heritage over Arunachal Pradesh (China's claims are of course non sense). China can also say that Democratic Taiwan is not a real country and thus can be assimilated into mainland China by use of force. China also has these dubious old maps which it flaunts to claim territory in Asia as a part of mainland in past history.

Turkey can make variety of claims citing interests of ethnic Muslims in the region including Tartars in Ukraine. Anybody who had an old empire or have territorial dispute with their neighbors can unfreeze past conflicts. The idea that some country is not real or some region of country is not real opens a Pandora box. The age of empires is long gone and American hegemony is also receding. Nostalgia of empires and spheres of influences will only create instability. I would remind Putin of his own words - Anybody who doesn't miss USSR doesn't have a heart, anybody who wants it back has no brains.

Some may say that what Russia is doing is isolated affair in Europe. Its far fetched to consider a risk of broader instability and other nations also trying adventures like Russia. Well, the world is ruled by fools and evil people, and they itch for conflict. Tyrants like Uncle Xi, Erdogan and Modi are irrational and unreasonable. And this amplifies the risk of war.  The old frozen conflicts and territorial disputes undoubtedly exist but to flare them up with military aggression without adequate motivations is highly irresponsible and dangerous. The fragile world order, however imperfect, is worth protecting and issues must be resolved with dialogue. Who knows what Putin's intentions are? At this point he appears to be unreasonable and inflexible. He doesn't care about sanctions and impact on Russian economy and Russian people. 

 

Even if Putin doesn't want a broader conflict and he's trying focus on Ukraine only, there can still be unintended consequences. Conflicts take mind of their own and wars start which can easily get out of control. Putin has also put Nuclear option on the table claiming that if NATO intervenes, Russia won't hesitate to go to Nuclear threshold. In past, Russia's position was that Nuclear deterrent was reserved for two conditions. 1) A retaliation against nuclear strike on Russia. 2) A conventional attack against Russia that threatens the existence of Russian state. Now Russia has expanded its Nuclear deterrent in aggressive unreasonable way - If NATO intervenes in Ukraine (not a Russian territory), then Nuclear option is on the table. The kind of rhetoric coming from Russia is alarming as if they are playing a dead man's bluff. They are projecting that they don't care about anything, any sanctions from west. Also Russia is trying to bite more than it can chew. If Russia's grievance was west orchestrating color revolution in Ukraine, then Russia has reciprocated that with its own aggression by retaking Crimea. Now what's the point of present escalation of such magnitude? 

There's also an opinion that Putin is a calculated thinker. Putin waited for right opportunity to make aggressive moves. The weakening of US under Trump regime, the global pandemic, fragility of global economy and various other factors - Putin may see this as a best shot to make some aggressive play (we don't know what's his end goal). But i don't think that's the right perspective unless Putin is too blind to see. Russia is equally weakened in this pandemic, if not more. The virus unleashed chaos in Russia and more than it did in Europe (official Russian statistics are false). The Russian economy is very weak. Russia is facing a Demographic crisis and any war will be catastrophic for Russia by wiping out young generation. And most of all, the allies unity (US & Europe) is very strong and US under Biden is capable to give competent response to Russian aggression.

Ukraine is a real country and its people have their own ambitions. Of course there are ethnic Russians in Ukraine and they also must have equal rights. Ukraine is a diverse country and its fate should be decided by its own people. No superpower has the right to use it as a pawn for its own purpose. Russia's aggression against Ukraine (a country which it holds dear) will make Ukrainians a permanent enemy of Russia. Is this what Russia really wants? There are no strategically favorable outcomes of this conflict for Russia. As an Indian, a country which has been historically close to Russia, an all weather friend; my advice to Russia is stop aggression against Ukraine and start dialogue. Take Nuclear threats off the table.