Delhi Pandemic alert system (GRAP) and Positivity rate

There needs to be a reconsideration of Delhi's GRAP system. Covid-19 GRAP was a system formulated in response to public health crisis (humanitarian carnage) unleashed by Delta wave last year. The GRAP system has formulated a mechanism for phase-wise economic shutdown and lockdown of Delhi in response to rising Covid-19 cases.

 

Photo - HT

This system factors in positivity rate (percentage of detected infections to total number of daily tests) as a guidance to establish how serious pandemic emergency is at any point of time. However, situation with Omicron wave is different than Delta wave - considering mortality and severity of disease. This is due to various reasons - the nature of new virus variant itself, our present vaccination rates & immunity in population, natural immunity from past waves etc. On question of immunity, i am not implying that we have "so much or so high" immunity due to vaccinations and natural infections. That question is for the experts to determine. But i can definitely say that Omicron wave is different from Delta wave and level of emergency is different. Hence we also need to modify our graded action plan according to it. Otherwise, we can shutdown the state per-emptively without adequate reasoning. And shutting down of economy has grave consequences considering socioeconomic reality of state.  

A much better mechanism for Omicron wave response should be based on reviewing our healthcare capacity, hospitals beds, stock of essential supplies like Oxygen & other medicines (from initial view, the need of Oxygen is less than what we faced in Delta wave) according to present situation. Its not just in case of Delhi, other states/cities should also review their pandemic action plan to adjust it to reality of Omicron wave which is different than past waves of pandemic. Instead of just applying a blanket preset system of shutdowns, Govt should also focus on more targeted measures like crowd control (stop all election rallies), enforcing better mask behavior (market places etc), suspending and/or restricting public events & mass assemblies (religious & community gatherings) etc.

Meanwhile, our Delhi CM is at the frontlines of leading the Pandemic response.

Photo - Source

PS - The two parameters of GRAD - Positivity rate and new cases over 7 day period expected to rise pretty quickly in coming days. But the parameter - Hospital occupancy should be the key factor to consider, in making decisions for restrictive measures.