Trump's failed coup in America and lessons for Democrats
Mob of Hooligans attacked American Parliament building on the day of ceremonial certification of President elect Joe Biden who won 2020 general elections. What was the purpose of these attacks on Capitol Hill? These attacks failed to stop the process of certification and conclusion of elections. The attacks by Pro Trump rioters were undoubtedly a black spot in American history that will be remembered forever. But the real threat connected to these attacks never materialized - a Fascist coup in America.
After Trump's loss of US elections in terms of electoral college as well as popular vote by a significant margin, it was obvious to many Political experts that Trump will never agree to peaceful transfer of power. And Trump lived up to this expectation. Trump, a group of Republicans and their plutocratic backers had no respect for the elections. After the loss of elections, Trump and his backers started finding ways to overturn election results. Trump filed various court cases challenging election results in various states. These court cases were in many states and all the way up to the Supreme Court. But all decisions were against Trump. Courts rightfully dismissed these lawsuits which were based on fictional theories and without any evidence. Trump also tried to hamstring state governors, state legislators and other organs of GOP apparatus to overturn election results. But here again Trump failed to reach anywhere.
But Trump had other plans to stay in power. That was using the Military, Police & law enforcement, Armed Militias and a small group of adventurist Republican politicians (like Cruz & Hawley) to launch a coup. But this coup plan needed support of group of Republican politicians specially Mitch McConnell, Lindsey Graham and other powerful reactionaries of Republican party. Its clear that these establishment Republicans dumped Trump at critical moment. Trump also needed support of Pentagon, or at least some Army battalions to mobilize for his coup. Just few days ago, ten former defense secretaries warned that it would be futile to drag military into the elections. So Trump was looking to drag military into his coup plans.
What happened on 6th January?
Trump simply did not had the assets to carry out a successful coup. The top Republican reactionaries (like Mitch McConnell & Lindsey Graham) refused to side with Trump for their own vested interests. Trump had no support from Military which was very critical to his coup plans. And the crux of the matter is that Trump simply wasn't in control of Republican party after all his losses in various court cases trying to overturn election results. Trump still had support from some GOP fanatics in Congress and Senate but it wasn't sufficient to establish his political rule. Recall that Mitch McConnell is the key power broker who helped Trump exercise control over Republican party. Without McConnell, Trump was politically weak.
Trump had support from law enforcement for his plans. I don't just mean the low level rank and file police officers. I mean people in top brass of law enforcement, the bureaucrats in DHS & FBI and other agencies. Anybody with common sense knew that Trump was preparing something sinister for 6th January. But there was no preparation by law enforcement agencies to stop MAGA hooligans. A real law enforcement apparatus would have acted very differently. Of course, there would have been a strong presence of security forces at Capitol hill to stop MAGA supporters from breaching the perimeter. But even before that, a real law enforcement would have acted on intelligence inputs and notified a curfew in DC area to stop MAGA supporters from entering DC. The ringleaders of these militia groups would have been arrested well in advance before they even had the chance to reach Washington DC. Many of the MAGA supporters were on terror watchlists of FBI and other agencies. How were they allowed to travel and assemble at Capitol Hill on 6th January? Why no red flags were raised? America has probably the strongest anti-terrorism apparatus in the world. On 6th January, all the state machinery failed in foiling what can be described as the gravest domestic terrorism act targeting the very core of political leadership. Biden's certification of election victory would have been smooth and peaceful had the law enforcement agencies were acting in good faith and commitment. What was going on in DHS, State Police, FBI & other agencies in last several weeks in not known but something was terribly wrong. A thorough inquiry and investigation is needed to find out Trump's moles in law enforcement agencies.
Trump had strong support of militant MAGA base. Bunch of psychotic armed gangsters with weapons who were ready to do or die on 6th January. What were they planning to do? We really don't know because the Trump's coup fell flat on that day. But we are glad that we didn't had to witness their actually intended plans. The law enforcement was practically on stand down in Washington DC as Trump's MAGA hooligans attacked Capitol Hill. Only a handful of cops & security personnel stood between MAGA rioters and American parliamentarians. But the key elements of Trump's coup never materialized - support from Pentagon and bigwigs of Republican party.
Why Trump launch a coup which was dead on arrival from logistical point of view?
Its well known fact that a successful coup requires support from military. But Trump initiated his coup without it. Maybe there was something going on behind the curtains that did not come to fruition. Maybe Trump thought that when he initiates the coup, the missing elements will fall in place and pro Trump Army battalions will mobilize for his support. We can only speculate on these things as actual affairs that happened behind the scenes will not be known to the public.
Trump's coup plans were in works since long, not just after the election defeat but even before the elections. Trump was also aware of his unpopularity which was reflected in his approval ratings. Trump used to boost that he got supporters of Cops, Bikers and Military implying that he can use force to stay in power if necessary. Trump also boosted about the packing of Judiciary, sending three justices to Supreme court and dozens of appointments in various high court circuits. After election loss, Trump expected that US courts will give him a free pass but it was not to be. All of Trump's frivolous lawsuits challenging election results were repudiated. Trump overestimated his reactionary overreach and under estimated the power of American institutions. Despite all the flaws in American institutions, these institutions still proved resistant to autocratic takeover. Trump did not get the support from Judiciary, the FBI, the Pentagon and even his own Justice department at the critical moment. Courts rejected all Trump's lawsuits. Trump wanted FBI to open politically motivated investigation into Biden's family, but FBI refused. There were no Pro Trump battalions on the streets to support Trump's coup. Trump tried to make his lapdog AG Bill Barr to declare that there was massive vote fraud in elections. But Barr & DOJ refused to oblige. The final nail in the coffin was Republican's turning their back on Trump when Mitch McConnell and Mike Pence refused to reject the election results.
Trump Presidency has changed the Political dynamics of America - Republican party has become a grave threat to nation
When Trump entered the Republican primaries in 2015, some experts predicted that Trump will be a wrecking ball for Republican party and will lead to breakup and collapse of Republican party as a national force. These experts predicted that there will be a historical party realignment in America. Whereas i agreed with this analysis to the point that Republican party has become a Fascist force. But i am skeptical of idea that Republican party will collapse as a national force. Just because Fascist forces are destroying a country doesn't mean they will get defeated. National survival is not guaranteed. Nations do collapse and are wiped out. Democracies can become dictatorships and autocracies. There is no law of physics that says Fascist forces get defeated and Democratic forces always prevail. I saw America moving in the direction of United Kingdom. A post industrial nation ruled by reactionary right wing lunatic party since last 11 years. The Tory party which has destroyed UK with all kind of destructive policies - A decade of Austerity policies, Budget cuts, Brexit insanity, Scottish referendum etc has ravaged British economy and society in last 12 years. Despite all the acts of political insanity by Tory Party in UK, it still manages to win elections.
But conclusion of Trump Presidency had made four things very clear.
1. Dem Party and its politicians should realize that they are themselves in mortal danger from threat of Fascism. The Fascist forces emerging in America do not believe in any rule of law, norms and traditions, and neither do they have any respect for elections and normal political process. These forces have one central characteristic - grabbing power by whatever means necessary. Recently FBI arrested militias in Michigan that were planning to kidnap & assassinate elected Politicians including the state governor. The threat from these militias was always there in the back of minds of Democratic politicians but they hadn't fully articulated this threat and extent to which these Fascist forces can manifest into. The attack on Capitol hill by MAGA hooligans is the 6 Alarm fire wake up call to Dem party and all politicians that believe in traditional American democracy.
2. Money bags, financiers and party plutocrats supported Trump for Tax cuts, deregulation, privatization and other pro Wall Stt policies. But the Wall Stt inclination towards Republican party is dwindling. The Capitol Hill riots had made many companies to withdraw funding to radical republican politicians but the trend of Wall Stt withdrawal from Republicans is even before that. Many republicans lagged behind Democratic competitors in Wall Stt funding in 2020 elections. This was mainly because Covid-19 pandemic in America has exposed the true nature of Trump leadership - Genocidal, suicidal, chaotic and highly destructive governance of Trump and Republicans. Its well known how Trump threw America into chaos by his foolhardy, anarchic and completely incompetent governance. Dems need to act against republican financier oligarchs who still wanna invest their money into republican party even after the true fascist nature of republicans has been exposed.
3. Trump may be gone by 20th January but Trumpism will continue to live. A significant section of American society has been zombified to the extent that it has embraced Fascism. It doesn't take a majority of lunatic fringe to destroy society and political system. My calculation suggests that 20% of lunatic fringe is enough to destroy society. Trump's hardcore base was also near this mark. Dem party must realize that while defeat of Trump is the most immediate goal, there is a long term goal of economic recovery, rehabilitation of society and cleaning up of political system. A complete overhaul of Political, Social and economic system is needed to decisively beat Fascism. Otherwise, fascism comes in many waves of attack. What you saw with Trump Presidency was only one wave, there will be more waves like it in future. Today we have Trump, tomorrow we may have a new Fascist demagogue like Trump and he may be more clever and powerful than Trump. We can already see that scoundrels like Ted Cruz are trying to capture the lunatic fringe base of Trump for his political career. Bottom line is this - We need a strategy to decisively beat Fascism. And this brings us to final point.
4. The thesis of party re-alignment is back into play. American political system was in a limbo since last many years. Trump has been a catalyst which has accelerated the pace of change in American politics. Which way American politics will go? This, by no means, is clear as of now. America can go either way - a Democratic republic or a Populist Fascist dictatorship. The real goal for this decade is to destroy and crush republican party as a national force. Its the only way, America can survive as a Democratic republic.
My advice to American politicians, activists, intellectuals and most importantly those who are in Power
There were events in 2020 that changed entire political and social dynamic in America. I would say that Democrats should consider themselves incredibly fortunate to win these elections and getting into power. Now only thing that matters is what you gonna do with that power. Of course you should think about all the policies you need to do rebuild economy, foreign relations, social harmony and many things which Trump has left in tatters. But with all these policy goals, you should have one core objective in your mind - strictest accountability against coup plotters and Fascist movement that is emerging in America. In fact, the single most critical goal of Dem party should be cleansing of American politics from the Fascist forces. And Dem must use all the levers of powers to achieve their goals. Use FBI, DHS, justice department, State Police, IRS and all agencies at their disposal to crush Fascist forces in America. Bury Trump and his family in deepest bottom of the planet for all their crimes including inciting insurrection against America. And Trump was just a frontman for Fascist forces that are infested in Wall Stt, Govt bureaucracy, Law enforcement and Pentagon. This infestation has to be cleared for America to retain itself as a healthy functioning Democracy.
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