India ending Lockdown - Government has surrendered in Covid-19 Battle
Indian Government has started relaxing the lockdown and reopening economy while Covid-19 pandemic rages in full swing in the country. Here in Delhi, which has among the highest cases in the country, the Govt has allowed the opening of market places, shopping malls, private businesses and offices. The Govt will also open temples, mosques, restaurants, hotels etc next week. Schools, Colleges & educational institutions will be likely opened next month. All this reopening is done in the middle of rapidly spreading Covid-19 pandemic. This is in complete contrast to Covid-19 response strategy of most of the developed countries where reopening of economy is done only after Covid-19 spread is under a reasonable control. I wrote almost 2 months ago that India's Lockdown measures will not be
able to stop Covid-19 spread and briefly explained the reasons in post
few days ago.
Firstly, its important to understand that Covid-19 progression and the results of Lockdown strategy is very different in India compared to Europe or most other developed countries.
Covid-19 progression and response strategy of Europe
Plotting Daily new cases vs Time. Blue curve represents possible future trend of new cases with relaxation of Lockdown
1. Infections have been controlled temporarily. New cases continue to decline as Covid response strategy in European countries like Italy, France, Spain, Germany etc has finally paid off.
2. Precise percentage of infected/uninfected population is not known. But reasonable to believe that majority of the population is still uninfected.
3. Herd immunity has not been achieved.
4. European countries having temporarily controlled the virus, are now reopening their economies.
5. Reopening of economy is like titrating infection rate with economic activity. Opening the economy will mean rising of infections. Government will try to open economy as much as possible while keeping new infections under a threshold (healthcare capacity). If new infections breach that threshold, the government will review the situation and scale down the economic activity. Goal of Government is to allow maximum economy activity while also saving maximum number of lives. A delicate balance has to be achieved between the two things.
6. European countries may preemptively tighten the lockdown around winters to curtail any surge of infections and seconds wave of virus.
7. This strategy of balancing between sustaining economy and saving lives is Temporary for next 6 months to 1 year. This is the time frame when vaccine and therapeutics are expected to become available.
8. Vaccine and therapeutics will be the final solution against the virus and governments are trying to survive next 6 months to 1 year until this solution arrives.
Progression of Covid-19 in India
India relaxing Lockdown when New cases continue to rise rapidly (Source - Worldometers.info)
1. Two months of Lockdown has failed to curtail the spread of virus in the country.
2. India is now starting to relax lockdown measures while pandemic still spreading at high rate. New highs of daily infections happening every day.
3. With more than 1,75,000 detected cases across country, Government is starting to think that infection is now beyond control. Its also well understood that real number of cases are much higher and remain undetected because of lack of testing.
4. India's healthcare capacity is about to be overrun. Covid-19 progression has already surpassed healthcare capacity in states like Maharashtra. Same thing may happen in Gujarat, Tamil Nadu & other states in coming weeks.
5. With return of migrant workers to their native villages, the virus will reach rural India and other districts which remained unaffected so far. Without any healthcare infrastructure, public awareness/literacy and lack of basic amenities (running water, sewer system etc), the virus will spread unrestricted rapidly.
6. Govt has come to conclusion that economic & human costs of Lockdown far outweighs the healthcare & human costs of Covid-19. Govt has also accepted that Lockdown measures have failed to control the spread of infection so time has come to reopen the economy.
7. Reopening the economy and relaxation of lockdown measures in coming weeks means virus will spread unrestricted at a very fast pace in coming weeks and months.
India's Daily new cases vs Time plot. Blue line projects India's Covid-19 cases will continue to rise with relaxation Lockdown and surpass the Healthcare Capacity of country soon.
8. Official statistics and Data of India's Covid-19 cases and deaths are now meaningless. India with a massive population with a weak and abysmally low healthcare capacity won't be able to detect and identify exact number of cases and deaths in country. Real number of Covid-19 cases and deaths are now many times the official detected figures.
9. Govt is starting to reopen the economy but maybe forced to reimpose lockdown if situation gets out of control specially in urban cities.
10. India will be adopting "Sweden Model" of dealing with Covid-19 where Govt will not impose severe restrictions in country and let people take responsibility of their own life and behavior. But the big difference between Sweden and India is that Sweden has among the best social security and healthcare system in the world which supports its population while India has among the worst social security and healthcare system where majority of population has almost no support from the government.
Conclusion
Brutal Herd immunity will become the natural course of defense against Covid-19 in India without any vaccine and therapeutics. While European countries will employ a time gaining strategy for next 6 months - 1 year to protect the population in absence of vaccine/therapeutics, India will let virus take its own course without any restrictions. India will become the Covid-19 epicenter of the world in coming days though most cases/deaths won't be officially recorded. India's healthcare system will be fully flooded with Covid-19 patients for next 6 months - 1 year and frontline workers will bear the most severe brunt of Covid-19 in India.
Firstly, its important to understand that Covid-19 progression and the results of Lockdown strategy is very different in India compared to Europe or most other developed countries.
Covid-19 progression and response strategy of Europe
Plotting Daily new cases vs Time. Blue curve represents possible future trend of new cases with relaxation of Lockdown
1. Infections have been controlled temporarily. New cases continue to decline as Covid response strategy in European countries like Italy, France, Spain, Germany etc has finally paid off.
2. Precise percentage of infected/uninfected population is not known. But reasonable to believe that majority of the population is still uninfected.
3. Herd immunity has not been achieved.
4. European countries having temporarily controlled the virus, are now reopening their economies.
5. Reopening of economy is like titrating infection rate with economic activity. Opening the economy will mean rising of infections. Government will try to open economy as much as possible while keeping new infections under a threshold (healthcare capacity). If new infections breach that threshold, the government will review the situation and scale down the economic activity. Goal of Government is to allow maximum economy activity while also saving maximum number of lives. A delicate balance has to be achieved between the two things.
6. European countries may preemptively tighten the lockdown around winters to curtail any surge of infections and seconds wave of virus.
7. This strategy of balancing between sustaining economy and saving lives is Temporary for next 6 months to 1 year. This is the time frame when vaccine and therapeutics are expected to become available.
8. Vaccine and therapeutics will be the final solution against the virus and governments are trying to survive next 6 months to 1 year until this solution arrives.
Progression of Covid-19 in India
1. Two months of Lockdown has failed to curtail the spread of virus in the country.
2. India is now starting to relax lockdown measures while pandemic still spreading at high rate. New highs of daily infections happening every day.
3. With more than 1,75,000 detected cases across country, Government is starting to think that infection is now beyond control. Its also well understood that real number of cases are much higher and remain undetected because of lack of testing.
4. India's healthcare capacity is about to be overrun. Covid-19 progression has already surpassed healthcare capacity in states like Maharashtra. Same thing may happen in Gujarat, Tamil Nadu & other states in coming weeks.
5. With return of migrant workers to their native villages, the virus will reach rural India and other districts which remained unaffected so far. Without any healthcare infrastructure, public awareness/literacy and lack of basic amenities (running water, sewer system etc), the virus will spread unrestricted rapidly.
6. Govt has come to conclusion that economic & human costs of Lockdown far outweighs the healthcare & human costs of Covid-19. Govt has also accepted that Lockdown measures have failed to control the spread of infection so time has come to reopen the economy.
7. Reopening the economy and relaxation of lockdown measures in coming weeks means virus will spread unrestricted at a very fast pace in coming weeks and months.
India's Daily new cases vs Time plot. Blue line projects India's Covid-19 cases will continue to rise with relaxation Lockdown and surpass the Healthcare Capacity of country soon.
8. Official statistics and Data of India's Covid-19 cases and deaths are now meaningless. India with a massive population with a weak and abysmally low healthcare capacity won't be able to detect and identify exact number of cases and deaths in country. Real number of Covid-19 cases and deaths are now many times the official detected figures.
9. Govt is starting to reopen the economy but maybe forced to reimpose lockdown if situation gets out of control specially in urban cities.
10. India will be adopting "Sweden Model" of dealing with Covid-19 where Govt will not impose severe restrictions in country and let people take responsibility of their own life and behavior. But the big difference between Sweden and India is that Sweden has among the best social security and healthcare system in the world which supports its population while India has among the worst social security and healthcare system where majority of population has almost no support from the government.
Conclusion
Brutal Herd immunity will become the natural course of defense against Covid-19 in India without any vaccine and therapeutics. While European countries will employ a time gaining strategy for next 6 months - 1 year to protect the population in absence of vaccine/therapeutics, India will let virus take its own course without any restrictions. India will become the Covid-19 epicenter of the world in coming days though most cases/deaths won't be officially recorded. India's healthcare system will be fully flooded with Covid-19 patients for next 6 months - 1 year and frontline workers will bear the most severe brunt of Covid-19 in India.
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