India's Lockdown - Where we are and how we got here?
India is not like western countries and developed nations where majority of people have job security, income security, food security, shelter and a robust welfare system that protects people in case of crisis. India's social welfare system is weak. A lot of the population are daily wage earners (Rikshaw pullers, construction workers, vendors, hawkers, small self employed businesses etc), homeless and poor, people outside of social safety net and living hand to mouth without any savings. Social distancing which is a privilege in western countries is impossible to be applied in much of the India due to real and practical constraints.
Now India is facing public health crisis due to Coronavirus pandemic. To tackle this crisis, Govt has to take several social and economic measures to control the spread of disease. Decisions like lockdowns, shutdown of public services, shutdown of transport, factories, offices etc, imposing curfews and movement restrictions are some of the decisions taken by the Govt. But all these decisions come at great economic and social costs for a country like India so these decisions must be accompanied by very proactive and aggressive economic relief and remedial measures. Measures not just on pieces of paper and television speeches of Politicians, but also implemented speedily & efficiently on the actual ground. Our Prime Minister, was quick to announce national lockdown at 8 PM one night but did not announce any economic relief measures in the same message. The economic relief measures were later announced by Finance minister but these measures were weak and unconvincing to most of the poor people of India. Its also unclear how these measures will be speedily rolled out and how some of the things can be practically implemented and enforced.
Just yesterday, Govt announced that landlords should stop taking rents from poor migrant tenants for one month. Similarly Govt announced that employers of daily wage workers will pay wages to people despite workers on a holiday due to shutdown. But how these Policies will be practically implemented and enforced? There are no grievance redressal bodies and mechanisms for people to approach to during this lockdown. Courts and tribunals are not running in this lockdown and poor people have no means to approach them anyway. Meanwhile poor people want the relief urgently. Will Police Danda be the solution of everything and every problem? The PDS food delivery and NREGA benefits announced by the Central Govt are meager and under the lockdown, the actual delivery of these benefits will be difficult.
It is interesting to note that, while Modi Govt announced some of the harshest lockdown measures, the Modi Govt didn't take the most basic and obvious measures for control and containment of virus in early days. As i explained in earlier post, the socioeconomic conditions and population dynamics in India are in such a shape that social distancing measures, as implemented in foreign developed countries, cannot be implemented in India. Hence the best strategy for control of virus was aggressive initial containment by doing large scale testing and aggressive quarantine at very early stage. Modi announced Total Air travel ban on 18th March, this should have been done on 18th February when the nature of disease was very clear about its high transmission risk. India should have sealed its borders, banned all air travel and enforced mandatory quarantine of all returning Indians with full testing of all these people. The question arises - Would these measures have been too drastic one month ago? Absolutely not. Because now we can see the alternative. A total national lockdown which will come at immense economic and social costs. Also it was quite clear by late February to every country in the world that WHO is covering up about China's situation and continue to delay declaration of pandemic. So Covid-19 was a Pandemic much before WHO officially declared it. So Modi Govt should have taken all the early steps. The Goal of Modi Govt should always have been to AVERT total National lockdown by implementing initial containment strategy. But there was no strategy to begin with.
Its well known to Indian observers that Modi Govt since last 3 months has been busy in all kind of destructive policies and useless things like domestic election campaigns, pushing for CAA NRC, jailing and mass arrests of civil society, students and protesters, political maneuvering like horse trading of MLAs in Madhya Pradesh (destabilizing & overthrowing a State Govt during Pandemic!), Delhi Riot situation, organizing for Trump's state visit etc. The critical time when Govt should be doing all the preparations and planning for pandemic management was wasted in last two months on other issues. Govt did not even prepare for procurement of N95 Masks, Testing kits, PPEs, ventilators and medical supplies which are now in acute shortage these days. In many cases, the doctors, Nurses & healthcare workers are dealing with Covid-19 patients without these protective gears.
Going forward. The most critical thing for Govt to understand is to balance between preventing transmission of disease and preventing social chaos in country. Keep in mind that majority of these people in country do not have adequate amount of food, personal savings, shelter and other basic things. A high handed approach against millions of desperate people can cause riots, stampedes and breakdown of entire lockdown. If food riots start, then Govt has to deploy Army & CRPF for protection in all major cities. This situation must not be allowed to develop.
Regarding India's migrant crisis, i think using Police to block such massive movement of migrants is not practical. Indian Govt says that there is no community transmission as of yet. If this is the case, then these migrants should be allowed to return to their villages where they will have better food security as they can work in farming. The problem of economic stagnation and recession risks are significant and government cannot lockdown millions of migrant labors in cities for a longer period of time, away from their home and family, and without any food, savings and shelter. Govt has to understand the basic concept of food supply chain. The agriculture sector provides food, the Govt procures these food supplies and then distribute it to people. Now food supply chain is in major disruption due to lockdown. So it makes sense for Govt to let migrant workers go back to their villages and get employed in farming. That will massively shorten the supply chain of food for millions of people. Will there be health risk and risk of transmission of virus among these migrant workers? Yes, but this risks exist anyway as these migrants are living in poor conditions of temporary shelters or ghettos of illegal colonies across major cities without proper sanitary conditions. So these migrant workers are already at health risk to themselves and other people but sending them back to villages will at least mitigate their lack of food security.
I think Indian Govt is not doing large scale testing to find out real extent of transmission and also Govt is not being transparent and forthcoming about the situation they are already aware of. If Govt really wanna restrict movement (in case large scale community transmission is already happening) of migrant workers, then it has to take aggressive measures for food delivery and income guarantee to people specially daily wagers. Remember, that Govt is short of medical supplies, but so far we still have all the food supplies of essential items. So if we have missed the train on preparing for essential medical supplies, now we should double down in ensuring food supplies to people. This is area where Govt simply cannot be complacent.
I would also say that PMO, Modi and Politicians at center should stop interfering in planning and management of Coronavirus disaster management. Let this task be handled by Bureaucrats (Coronavirus Task force etc) and military technocrats from the center. Despite all shortcomings of our bureaucracy, they are better qualified than our politicians to handle this situation. Also the Central Govt should let States handle the local management and center should provide full monetary support and resources to state Govt. This is not a time for Center and states quarreling with each other, this is a time for cooperative federalism in spirit, not just in words.
Now India is facing public health crisis due to Coronavirus pandemic. To tackle this crisis, Govt has to take several social and economic measures to control the spread of disease. Decisions like lockdowns, shutdown of public services, shutdown of transport, factories, offices etc, imposing curfews and movement restrictions are some of the decisions taken by the Govt. But all these decisions come at great economic and social costs for a country like India so these decisions must be accompanied by very proactive and aggressive economic relief and remedial measures. Measures not just on pieces of paper and television speeches of Politicians, but also implemented speedily & efficiently on the actual ground. Our Prime Minister, was quick to announce national lockdown at 8 PM one night but did not announce any economic relief measures in the same message. The economic relief measures were later announced by Finance minister but these measures were weak and unconvincing to most of the poor people of India. Its also unclear how these measures will be speedily rolled out and how some of the things can be practically implemented and enforced.
Just yesterday, Govt announced that landlords should stop taking rents from poor migrant tenants for one month. Similarly Govt announced that employers of daily wage workers will pay wages to people despite workers on a holiday due to shutdown. But how these Policies will be practically implemented and enforced? There are no grievance redressal bodies and mechanisms for people to approach to during this lockdown. Courts and tribunals are not running in this lockdown and poor people have no means to approach them anyway. Meanwhile poor people want the relief urgently. Will Police Danda be the solution of everything and every problem? The PDS food delivery and NREGA benefits announced by the Central Govt are meager and under the lockdown, the actual delivery of these benefits will be difficult.
It is interesting to note that, while Modi Govt announced some of the harshest lockdown measures, the Modi Govt didn't take the most basic and obvious measures for control and containment of virus in early days. As i explained in earlier post, the socioeconomic conditions and population dynamics in India are in such a shape that social distancing measures, as implemented in foreign developed countries, cannot be implemented in India. Hence the best strategy for control of virus was aggressive initial containment by doing large scale testing and aggressive quarantine at very early stage. Modi announced Total Air travel ban on 18th March, this should have been done on 18th February when the nature of disease was very clear about its high transmission risk. India should have sealed its borders, banned all air travel and enforced mandatory quarantine of all returning Indians with full testing of all these people. The question arises - Would these measures have been too drastic one month ago? Absolutely not. Because now we can see the alternative. A total national lockdown which will come at immense economic and social costs. Also it was quite clear by late February to every country in the world that WHO is covering up about China's situation and continue to delay declaration of pandemic. So Covid-19 was a Pandemic much before WHO officially declared it. So Modi Govt should have taken all the early steps. The Goal of Modi Govt should always have been to AVERT total National lockdown by implementing initial containment strategy. But there was no strategy to begin with.
Its well known to Indian observers that Modi Govt since last 3 months has been busy in all kind of destructive policies and useless things like domestic election campaigns, pushing for CAA NRC, jailing and mass arrests of civil society, students and protesters, political maneuvering like horse trading of MLAs in Madhya Pradesh (destabilizing & overthrowing a State Govt during Pandemic!), Delhi Riot situation, organizing for Trump's state visit etc. The critical time when Govt should be doing all the preparations and planning for pandemic management was wasted in last two months on other issues. Govt did not even prepare for procurement of N95 Masks, Testing kits, PPEs, ventilators and medical supplies which are now in acute shortage these days. In many cases, the doctors, Nurses & healthcare workers are dealing with Covid-19 patients without these protective gears.
Going forward. The most critical thing for Govt to understand is to balance between preventing transmission of disease and preventing social chaos in country. Keep in mind that majority of these people in country do not have adequate amount of food, personal savings, shelter and other basic things. A high handed approach against millions of desperate people can cause riots, stampedes and breakdown of entire lockdown. If food riots start, then Govt has to deploy Army & CRPF for protection in all major cities. This situation must not be allowed to develop.
Regarding India's migrant crisis, i think using Police to block such massive movement of migrants is not practical. Indian Govt says that there is no community transmission as of yet. If this is the case, then these migrants should be allowed to return to their villages where they will have better food security as they can work in farming. The problem of economic stagnation and recession risks are significant and government cannot lockdown millions of migrant labors in cities for a longer period of time, away from their home and family, and without any food, savings and shelter. Govt has to understand the basic concept of food supply chain. The agriculture sector provides food, the Govt procures these food supplies and then distribute it to people. Now food supply chain is in major disruption due to lockdown. So it makes sense for Govt to let migrant workers go back to their villages and get employed in farming. That will massively shorten the supply chain of food for millions of people. Will there be health risk and risk of transmission of virus among these migrant workers? Yes, but this risks exist anyway as these migrants are living in poor conditions of temporary shelters or ghettos of illegal colonies across major cities without proper sanitary conditions. So these migrant workers are already at health risk to themselves and other people but sending them back to villages will at least mitigate their lack of food security.
I think Indian Govt is not doing large scale testing to find out real extent of transmission and also Govt is not being transparent and forthcoming about the situation they are already aware of. If Govt really wanna restrict movement (in case large scale community transmission is already happening) of migrant workers, then it has to take aggressive measures for food delivery and income guarantee to people specially daily wagers. Remember, that Govt is short of medical supplies, but so far we still have all the food supplies of essential items. So if we have missed the train on preparing for essential medical supplies, now we should double down in ensuring food supplies to people. This is area where Govt simply cannot be complacent.
I would also say that PMO, Modi and Politicians at center should stop interfering in planning and management of Coronavirus disaster management. Let this task be handled by Bureaucrats (Coronavirus Task force etc) and military technocrats from the center. Despite all shortcomings of our bureaucracy, they are better qualified than our politicians to handle this situation. Also the Central Govt should let States handle the local management and center should provide full monetary support and resources to state Govt. This is not a time for Center and states quarreling with each other, this is a time for cooperative federalism in spirit, not just in words.
Comments
Post a Comment