India - Pakistan situation update

Breaking up with usual writing, i see it's necessary to talk about situation at border. Some side note. A destructive decision has been taken by Modi government of doing a caste census. This news has been buried in headlines of crisis at the border. I am writing a detailed piece to elaborate on it which will be complete soon. Moving on to subject at hand.

Shortly today, a ceasefire had been announced and hopefully this will be maintained towards normalization at border.  On matter of conflict - the situation is fluid, information we get is mostly unreliable, fake news is rampant. There isn't much to go on to make a definitive analysis of the situation. Most importantly both India & Pakistan are ruled by regimes who have habit of operating in opacity and on basis of disinformation & propaganda. People of both nations don't know the objective reality of their national policies most of the time. The best i can do is make some speculations and consider some scenarios including worst one.

At the outset, i must say that i don't see any reason for going to war or start a major confrontation with Pakistan right now. The situation doesn't warrant it. Some of the things i have already mentioned in my last article. Here i discuss three scenarios on current India - Pakistan situation.

Optimistic scenario - Indian government is only demonstrating its escalation dominance against Pakistan. India doesn't really plan to start any major conflict or a war. Surely, there is politics involved about boosting strongman image for domestic politics which is hallmark of present government. But overall, the government is sensible and doesn't plan to do anything foolishly adventurous. 

Unpredictable scenario - While each side makes its own calculation, things can take mind of its own. In trying to achieve escalation dominance and 1-up attitude over the rival, things can get out of hand. Situation gets out of control of both parties. That's when small things turn into big consequences. This India must avoid this and that's why ceasefire is essential. 

Some people complain that India has not achieved strategic objectives and Modi shouldn't make ceasefire. But these people don't mention what those strategic objectives are. Destroying cross border training camps in PoK? This India already claims has been achieved so further tit for tat retaliation should be avoided. 

Worst case scenario - Modi decides to act like Putin's decision to invade Ukraine. India decides to capture PoK or other critical Pakistani territory. This may turn into long protracted conflict. India doesn't have resources to achieve military objectives of this scale without sacrificing a great deal. This may turn into an all out war that will greatly impact both nations. A long war of attrition may ensue that will deplete Indian economic resources. The war will also be uncertain as to what threshold it may escalate to. This India doesn't need right now. 

The worst fear is foolishness of autocratic mindset. Think of mindless decision of demonetization that plunged the country into paralysis and chaos. What will happen if decision of defense policy are taken with same mindset? On other side of spectrum, Pakistan military & ISI may consolidate political power and new kind of Gen. Zia or Ayub Khan may emerge. Present democratic regime in Pakistan is more conducive to India's interests. 

With both nations taken over by strongman politics and jingoism, it will be difficult to wind down conflict. Even if conflict is somehow resolved for now, the peace may remain fragile and temporary. India doesn't want this environment of instability and uncertainty in region. 

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