India - Pakistan situation

The tension between India and Pakistan has increased suddenly in last few days. There have been small raids by both countries across the border and LOC through fighter jets, drones and Missiles. Both sides have minor losses though we don't know exact details as media in both countries is unreliable. In India, Pakistani media sources & including many social media sources have been long been suspended. I would skip details and get to bigger questions.

Do we need war with Pakistan?

Right now, we don't. India-Pakistan tensions have been simmering since long and terror attack on India does not warrant a full fledged war with Pakistan. We have sufficient ways to respond through proxy & asymmetric means against any terror attack in India, especially if it's limited to Kashmir. 

What is objective of current Indian military operations?

I don't know strategy of Indian military. My speculation is that India wants to demonstrate 'escalation dominance' over Pakistan. 'Escalation dominance' over Pakistan is something we have achieved in last 15 year or so. This means that India can impose costs on Pakistan and every escalation only adds more net loss to Pakistan - Pakistan is in a lose-lose situation and has no strategic advantage in escalating a conflict. 

Pakistan will remain an annoyance for India but it will not be able to mount any significant offensive as long as India maintains escalation dominance. India now has control over Kashmir waterways which we have invested billions to build dams. India has proxy assets in Pakistan which can be mobilized anytime. India has more military hardware. And with all of it, India has more aggressive foreign policy, international diplomacy, defense policy. Indian economy is not good but is still far superior than Pakistan. 

Do we need major conflict with Pakistan?

We don't right now. Pakistan is already on its natural path to slow demise. It's economy is collapsing, it's institutions are thoroughly infested with corruption and dysfunction, it's political system is failing badly, it's social fabric is being torn apart due to internal civil conflicts. While India is not a shining example of healthy state, Pakistan relatively is in much poorer health than India.

India can respond to small scale terror attacks in Kashmir by retaliating through proxy elements. Thanks to Doval, we have created such networks in Pakistan & Afghanistan. But a major conventional conflict with Pakistan will reinvigorate Pakistani state by giving more power to ISI and military. It's in India's interest that control of Pakistan should remain in hands of dysfunctional democratic politicians. In fact, Pakistani politicians are our assets who're eating the state from within. A military dictatorship in Pakistan may create problems for India.

What is India's capability in conventional war with Pakistan?

While India has military edge over Pakistan, we don't have military capacity and resources for a full fledged existential war with Pakistan and taking it to conclusion. If Pakistan forces a war upon India, then undoubtedly we shall fight. But until then, we should not initiate a war at this time. 

Even if destruction of Pakistan state is our goal (which i don't think is), I am not convinced that time is ripe for it. A much better timing would be starting a conflict when Pakistan is facing intense armed civil rebellions with complete economic breakdown & paralysis. Think of timing of NATO intervention of Yugoslavia.  We should let Pakistan continue on its natural demise. We should nudge it in this direction. But final military intervention should be reserved for right timing - When Pakistan gets extremely destabilized, some of its regions are ready to declare Independence and consensus is reached with regional powers (China etc) for dissolution & division of Pakistani state.

On situation of India

India is marred by own internal problems. This is not time to start a war especially over a terror attack in Kashmir. An unplanned & unnecessary war can fatally impact Indian state. Our defense & foreign policy should remain cautious and focus on maintaining our red lines. 

Nuclear confrontation

Nobody can predict the nuclear confrontation as it has never happened even at height of cold war. Nuclear weapons remain a last resort for nations & nobody has dared to use it. I hope it never comes to it. I am optimistic that conflict with Pakistan will remain below nuclear threshold as long as no nation faces an existential crisis or fit of madness.