Briefly noted - Events of June 2022 to April 2023
Situation in Ukraine
Situation in Ukraine turned out to be even worse than what General Ivashov predicted. The massive casualties of Russian military and PMCs (Wagner etc), huge loss of military hardware and equipment (tanks, ships, armored vehicles, ammunition etc) and isolation of Russia. The economy of Russia is decimated although it's being propped up somewhat by China and other nations who are still trading with Russia (Oil & Gas etc) disregarding western calls for sanctions. The demographic crisis has gotten worse and Russia's standing in the world has been greatly tarnished by the mindless war of aggression. Russia is sending prisoners (human waves) and conscription troops as its resources are dwindling.
The Talleyrand quote fits perfectly to Putin. "worse than a crime; its a mistake". You want to act tough, inhuman and throw international law out of the window. You want to destroy and decimate a modern country with population of more than 40 million. Not only you should be a maniac and a psychopath, you should also be highly competent and great strategist. You can get away with international crimes and crimes against humanity as long as you are smart and powerful - might is right. But Putin who was once believed to be shrewd and master strategist, the KGB chess master, brilliant in playing geopolitics turned out to be an idiot. It's amazing how foolishly Putin and Kremlin misjudged and misread the reality of Ukraine. Now Putin has humiliated himself and Russia with catastrophic failure of foreign and defense policy. So the worst sin of Putin regime is - FAILURE. It's also speculated that there might be a regime change in Russia as various factions fight for control for political power in Russia. Prigozhin (Putin's chef & controller of Wagner) is having problems with Russian Defense ministry.
International order
While Russia is getting decimated in Ukraine, the global geopolitics is changing. It's yet to be seen where the things will settle into final shape. On one side there is US, NATO states (European Union states etc), Japan, South Korea etc (free world/much of liberal Democracies) and on other side it's Russia, China, Iran, North Korea etc (illiberal world order). Still the picture is not so clear as there are other actors which are sitting on the bench like India. There is strong cohesion within NATO countries but other opposing factions like SCO & BRICS have little cohesion & stability. SCO (Shanghai co-operation organization), once formulated as an Asian defense alliance to counter US hegemony, is now deeply divided specially due to friction between India & China, India & Pakistan (all these have fought wars at various times). India to hedge its position has joined QUAD alliance comprising of US, Japan & Australia which was primarily formed to check China's overtures in South China sea and territorial disputes in Asia pacific. India keeps buying Oil from Russia (which US doesn't like) and there is recent opposition to Modi Govt in UK and Canada (India blames Khalistan movement funded from abroad) which India doesn't like.
There is a kind of multilateral world order which is becoming into war of all against all. Russia on it's part see China as a brother, an indispensable ally and recent visit of Xi Jinping visited Kremlin even when Putin was declared war criminal by International criminal court. There are no brothers and sisters in global politics, there are only interests. Putin also knows this very well. Xi's visit of Kremlin was showered by a lot of PR management and media spectacle. This was mostly meant as a showcase for Russians to show them that Russia is not isolated from the world (it very much is!). China will likely use weakened Russia as subordinate partner to counter US & NATO. China also has imperial ambitions and hence doesn't like to see Russia fall as it will pretty much isolate China globally. So despite Putin's blunders, Xi's giving sympathy to the KGB chessmaster.
In United Nations, there were various discussions on Ukraine conflict. Russia was condemned collectively by west & Europe along with much of the Democratic world. But there were supporters of Russia which was shown through votes in security council as well as general assembly on various issues. As far as India is concerned, it's Potemkin Democracy. India has abstained from several resolutions that are critical of Russian aggression. This is unsurprising because India has a historical relationship with Russia and Russia is also a major supplier of defense equipment (but delivery of S-400 is in trouble as Russian defense industry is severely constrained by sanctions) and Oil. BRICS and SCO nations have also supported Russia in UN resolutions (either voting against western resolutions are abstaining from it). SCO is a failing alliance and BRICS has no economic strength (if you take out China from it) comparable to western economic blocs. North Korea, Iran, Syria etc have been supporting Russia for the obvious reasons. Who blew Nord Stream? Difficult to say but it is possible that US blew it up. What did Russia expect? US sits quietly while Russia wages war of aggression in Europe threatening regional & global world order? Russia was also using Gas trade to blackmail Europe which failed to materialize. Europe is now adjusting its energy needs by going back to Coal electricity generation and LNG imports from US. While this is not a "green" energy, this is what Europe can do to cope with energy demand and rising prices. The Ukraine war is causing inflation and food scarcity in Africa as Ukraine was a major food exporter (wheat, cooking oil etc).
Rising geopolitical tensions in the world has concerned countries like Germany and Japan to rebuild their military doctrine however it's been difficult due to economic reasons and other factors to modernize military. Europe and Asia Pacific countries will continue to depend upon US for military umbrella in foreseeable future. Finland has joined NATO and Sweden may follow soon. Bolsonaro regime in Brazil has fallen after election defeat but backers of former PM Bolsonaro refuse to concede defeat and attacked Govt institutions in violent protests similar to Jan 6 in US. There are peaceful protests in France against Macron's Pension reforms including raising of retirement age. In Germany, there are some protests in support of Russia. These protests are fusion of far right and far left groups against Germany's foreign policy of supporting Ukraine against Russia. Netanyahu has launched unpopular judicial overhaul which has created instability in Israel. US has also advised Israel to drop unpopular judicial reform policies that underminine its separation of powers (a hallmark of healthy Democracy). China is trying to fill in Diplomacy vacuum in Middle East by engaging with Iran and Saudi Arabia. Imran Khan's PTI coalition Govt has fallen in Pakistan as Khan turned out to be just another failed ruler. The primary reasons of failures were crumbling political system, massive corruption and accelerating collapse of Pakistan's economy which has hastened under IMF conditionalities.
Chinese Foreign minister with Saudi & Iranian counterparts in Beijing - Source
There is major shift in US foreign policy with recognition of China, Russia and illiberal world order as main threat to US influence in present and future. US is now moving away from failed policies that focused mainly around Middle East, and now focusing in Europe and Asia Pacific along with new threat analysis of hostile multipolar world order.
Global economy
Inflation is starting to cool off as demand is cooling due to aggressive Fed rate hikes over a year (Central Banks around the world hiked rates rapidly in 2022). US employment rate is now on projected pre-pandemic level estimates and labor markets are strong as US fiscal relief measures to tackle pandemic slowdown pulled economy out of recession very quickly. US is reorganizing its economy in changing global environment which some economists referring to as Bidenomics, which is significantly different from previously dominant Reaganomics discourse of American economy (1, 2, 3). The changes comprises of US Govt participation in economy to support to high tech industry (incentives to semiconductors, Biotech etc, with protectionism), modernizing infrastructure (electricity grids, focus on renewable etc to tackle Climate change, improving supply chains etc), strengthening service sector (more care jobs) and addressing inequality. The change in US economic policy discourse is also partly motivated by rise of China and its economic vision. China has already surpassed US economy in critical aspects and by next decade it may supersede US & EU as economic superpower. This has caused unease and fears in US.
Experts warned that raising rates too quickly will break something in financial markets. Silicon Valley Bank (major Tech startup financier) and some other institutions failed but swiftly rescued by the Fed, FDIC and private institutions. The depositors with over $250K FDIC limit were also fully compensated. The bank was betting on low interest rates and did not have adequate capital in present situation (value of its Treasury bonds declined which it had purchased during pandemic when interest rates were very low). Global economy would've been in much better shape after overcoming the pandemic if Russia had not started the war of aggression in Ukraine. Global economy may be on shaky ground as a recession is forecast later this year. But interestingly, despite rapid rate hikes, the labor market in US continues to remains strong even as Pandemic relief programs have come to an end.
Elon Musk has taken over Social media giant Twitter Inc. and destabilized the platform with his whimsical and foolish management. The firing of Twitter employees, changing algorithms, degrading experience and conversion of social media company into a cash cow has dismayed a lot of long time users, many of them even quit (1, 2, 3).
America
Trump is finally indicted in America by a competent & courageous DA in New York. The charges of Trump indictment are real but other more serious indictments for treason, insurrection and mishandling (espionage?) of classified documents are still pending. US AG Merrick Garland shows little enthusiasm in enforcing the law against Trump for some reason. Indictment finally has brought Trump to trial in courts and hopefully other investigations will also come to conclusion. Trump has pledged "Death and Destruction", personally attacked judge and DA, their families and attacked FBI etc. Setting a new normal, Trump declared that he will be running for Presidential elections despite under indictment and even if he's convicted (analysis on this).
Roe vs Wade was overturned by Supreme court which is a scathing attack on Women rights in America. Various GOP states are making inhuman laws that grossly violates rights of Women in America. It is unfortunate for a modern progressive society like America to make primitive laws that are now rolling back decades of progress on women rights. Gun violence continues to plague America as Republicans, backed by Arms dealers (NRA), refuse to implement sensible Gun control laws. Republicans like Governor Abbott and DeSantis are creating mini-authoritarian states by attacking liberty of people under disguise of war against woke.
Republicans managed to win the House in Nov 2022 elections with a paper thin margin but infighting of Party spilled into the open with record number of ballots for choosing the Speaker of the house. Election deniers candidates backed by Trump were defeated in November elections. Kevin McCarthy, endorsed by Trump, finally gained approvals of loony bins (Matt Gaetz, Boehbert etc). Republican party is in trouble and stars are aligned for an opportunity of its destruction, provided there are people who have courage and competence to act swiftly. The dilemma of GOP is that it cannot win elections on southern strategy (Guns, Gays & God) of polarization. So in 2016, the MAGA populism became a force that propelled a one-off victory to GOP. But due to catastrophic failures of Trump regime, all its crimes and failure, the MAGA movement is now withering away. So dilemma of GOP is that it cannot win with Trump (who is now a leading GOP Prez candidate) and cannot win without him either as party has lost mass appeal at national level.
Trump has issued various threats of violence but there is hardly any mass mobilization by his MAGAts. On day of Trump's indictment, there were no mass protests in support of Trump in any state. The day Trump falsely claimed he was getting arrested - there were no MAGAts on streets to show their sympathy. Tucker Carlson invited Glenn Beck to discuss Trump's indictment and all FOX news could show was 4-5 MAGAts dupes waving pro Trump flags. Where is support for Trump? There is very little. Goebbels of the Third Reich said this about their movement when it was trying to capture political power - "If the enemy had known how weak we were, it would probably have reduced us to jelly ... It would have crushed in blood the very beginning of our work." The MAGA movement (& much of GOP) is weak at this point and this is a time to nip it in the bud and destroy it.
The House committee completed the Jan 6 report but parts of the report were not released. Liz Cheney kept the focus of report on Trump while keeping attention away from GOP party, surging right wing extremism and US intelligence/military failures to prevent riots. The report failed to provide a credible explanation on inability of FBI, DHS, Pentagon & other agencies to detect & prevent Jan 6 riot. While several localized law enforcement agencies throughout US were aware of potential violence on Jan 6, there was no central unified effort and coordination among agencies to stop this grave threat (1, 2 & 3). After 9/11 attacks, one of the features of overhauling of national defense (against foreign & domestic threats) was reform of coordination between various agencies to timely detect and neutralize national security threats. But Jan 6 riots showed that this mechanism failed spectacularly once again. The likely explanation is that federal agencies and departments were aware of coup threats (at least on some level, if not entirely) but Trump's backers have subdued and paralyzed these agencies so they failed to respond.
Dominion Lawsuit exposed FOX as a propaganda sewer that KNOWINGLY spread falsehoods. The defamation lawsuit was however settled (as FOX has history of burying its scandals) with Fox paying $787.5 million with Fox making minimal acknowledgement of false reporting. Other lawsuits against Fox news are ongoing while Tucker Carlson has left the network for undisclosed reasons.
India
Political situation in India has gotten worse as Modi - BJP consolidates Power. Maharashtra, an important state with non-BJP coalition Govt (MVA), has been dismantled by BJP. BJP has won elections in certain states but lost to AAP Municipal elections in Delhi. The central institutions & law enforcement agencies continue to be used brutally against opposition political parties and their leaders are getting framed and sent to jail. Supreme court has been deaf & dumb to Fascistic dictatorship and military establishment stands beside BJP. Rahul Gandhi's political career has come to an end which BJP minister describing Gandhi as an ass in the race of horses of Indian politics. Disqualification of Rahul Gandhi was illegal and unfortunate but characterization made by BJP minister is true. Gujarat is a Banana state and has Kangaroo courts but no opposition leader had the courage to say those words. Mass killers and conspirators (all henchmen of BJP) of Gujarat massacre have also set free by Kangaroo courts of Gujarat.
The core of problems in India is that it's facing Constitutional failure and collapse of it's political system which has accelerated in last few years. Elections in India now have as much credibility as elections in Putin's Russia. No elections at this point can roll back India's slide into Fascism. In fact elections have become a legitimizing force for Fascists. BJP and Modi haves boldly stated that their crimes and corruption don't matter because people voted for them. As long as people vote for Fascists, they are above the law. The leftists in India have failed to provide concrete ideas to reform political system in India.
The Adani scandal came to light but Govt buried it into obscurity. Former J&K Governor became whistleblower and made some direct and indirect inferences about Modi and BJP. Any analyst with intellect and integrity can deduce that Pulwama was a False flag attack carried out by Modi regime to gain political traction in 2019 elections. But national media gave no attention and coverage on things exposed by former governor.
Off topic and Extra stuff - Appeasement doesn't prevent war, it only delays it.
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