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Showing posts from February, 2025

Future of Ukraine conflict under Trump

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US position on Ukraine is taking a drastic turn with Trump back in White House. The Biden policy on Ukraine was cautious but slightly flawed as it was based on open ended conflict and with no diplomatic engagement with Russia. Biden's policy was driving Russians out of Ukraine by raising the cost of conflict for Russia so much that Putin will either withdraw or there will be regime change in Russia. Since Russia was taking a beating, the policy was slowly taking the conflict to military victory and keeping war below the Nuclear threshold. The criticism of Biden's policy was that it had no endgame strategy. This article summarizes the shortcomings of Biden's Ukraine policy. The policy of seeking a military victory might have produced results if US maintained a commitment to it for few more years.  But then Trump won the elections and took the Ukraine policy to the other extreme end. Past policy was - No dialogue and focusing on military victory. New policy is - rapprochemen...

Don't underestimate 'stupid'

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Three traits define governance and policies of Trump regime - Delusions, stupidity and vindictiveness. And stupidity is the dominant trait. World's richest man, Elon Musk is wearing sunglasses at indoor CPAC rally and waving a chainsaw - a symbolic gesture to cut down and dismantling government - in name of efficiency.  Noah Smith wrote a long article about possible motives of Trump regime for making radical shifts to long standing policies, especially international policy. Smith made certain valid points and reasonable assumptions. At one point, he assume in his hypothesis that Trump regime (despite all the chaos) may have a definitive purpose to international policy BUT they are stupid and bungling everything. In the hypothesis, Smith says that Trump regime wants to wean of Russia from China, and focus to tackle China as arch-nemesis of US. But Trump regime is stupid and doesn't know how to do things. I have written my own theory of Trump regime and tried to elaborate stuff...