Documenting 21st Century - India and the World

US position on Ukraine is taking a drastic turn with Trump back in White House. The Biden policy on Ukraine was cautious but slightly flawed as it was based on open ended conflict and with no diplomatic engagement with Russia. Biden's policy was driving Russians out of Ukraine by raising the cost of conflict for Russia so much that Putin will either withdraw or there will be regime change in Russia. Since Russia was taking a beating, the policy was slowly taking the conflict to military victory and keeping war below the Nuclear threshold. The criticism of Biden's policy was that it had no endgame strategy. This article summarizes the shortcomings of Biden's Ukraine policy. The policy of seeking a military victory might have produced results if US maintained a commitment to it for few more years.  But then Trump won the elections and took the Ukraine policy to the other extreme end. Past policy was - No dialogue and focusing on military victory. New policy is - rapprochemen...

Three traits define governance and policies of Trump regime - Delusions, stupidity and vindictiveness. And stupidity is the dominant trait. World's richest man, Elon Musk is wearing sunglasses at indoor CPAC rally and waving a chainsaw - a symbolic gesture to cut down and dismantling government - in name of efficiency.  Noah Smith wrote a long article about possible motives of Trump regime for making radical shifts to long standing policies, especially international policy. Smith made certain valid points and reasonable assumptions. At one point, he assume in his hypothesis that Trump regime (despite all the chaos) may have a definitive purpose to international policy BUT they are stupid and bungling everything. In the hypothesis, Smith says that Trump regime wants to wean of Russia from China, and focus to tackle China as arch-nemesis of US. But Trump regime is stupid and doesn't know how to do things. I have written my own theory of Trump regime and tried to elaborate stuff...

Indian conventional thinking is about veneration of founding fathers, Democracy, constitution, universal suffrage, liberal economic reforms, socialistic ideas and Caste census. Indian activists and intellectuals live in their microcosm bubble of these & related ideas. Much of social and intellectual thinking in India is shaped by false achievements and fabrication of history and lack of epistemological knowledge of the world - the macrocosm.  The Democracy in India is largely a failed project of which i have discussed in detail and will only give a brief summary here. The founding fathers lacked foresight, philosophy and courage to shape a suitable and stable political system for India. The current constitution itself is dysfunctional and a failed project as its founded on political system which is unsustainable. Mind you that i do not criticize the progressive ideas of the constitution like fundamental rights, secularism and principle of natural justice. But these ideas are pa...

On History  is book by great Historian Eric Hobsbawm which is compilation of several essays from his past lectures and papers. The essays cover diverse themes like on economic and social history, nationalism, Karl Marx, contemporary society, Soviet union, barbarism etc. But at its core, the book is about, as its title suggests, the dynamics of history as a science. The authors explains what is History, how its study evolved in previous two centuries, what were & are its shortcomings, what are consequences of these shortcomings. In fact, author stresses much about 'bad history', that is politically motivated history, anachronistic follies and history based on personal biases of historians. All these topics are discussed in great depth although book may appear too short for these topics.  Author signifies the role of Karl Marx's importance to historians about how historical materialism is critical force of social change and he also underscores pitfalls of 'vulgar Marx...

US is now in control of most malignant, incompetent and destructive political regime. This regime if allowed to continue for 4 years and possibly longer will create immense destruction to America and the whole world. I have already given detailed analysis of character and structure of Trump regime which can be best described as a Pathocracy and a Kakistocracy. Now i try to envision some possibilities on what will happen with this regime. 1. Trump regime and plutocratic forces consolidate full power - If this happens, US will go into dark age with destruction of its society, economy, rule of law, environment and political system. US will become a lawless failed 3rd world state ruled by fanatic oligarchs and plutocrats. Political opposition will be destroyed, institutions will be subverted and destroyed. Intellect of US society which has already declined will take a deeper plunge into the abyss. US hegemony and global power status will be finished. Hostile nations may try to take furth...

Israel, US and Turkey backed rebels overran Syria and Assad flee the country. Don't be mistaken by public stance of US that they're concerned about threat of terrorists groups (ISIS, HTS, Al Nusra etc) influence in Syria after fall of Assad regime. These groups are actually assets of US, Israel, Turkey and they are terrorists indeed without any democratic or humanistic inclinations.  The fall of Assad regime comes with festive gloating by Americans, Ukrainians, Europeans and west in general. It's a victory indeed as Russia's only ally (dating back since USSR) is now overthrown. Russia's critically important military bases in Syria may also be evicted. These bases were critical for Russia's supply line and outreach into Mediterranean as well as Africa. Russia has surrendered Syria without much fighting as it knows that resistance is futile at this time because Russia's military is ruined by Ukrainian fiasco.  Russian regime is vulnerable. And they face great ...

We should not be agitated by status quo so much that we decide to take a plunge into the unknown without examining the alternative - Arun Shourie This is a short article on where we currently stand in Indian politics. Indian politics right now is in dark place. Not just in regards to character and policies of ruling BJP regime of which i have written enough about but also the character and agenda of main political opposition. We know that present ruling regime is a Fascistic Pathocracy ( 1 , 2 ,  3 ). However, many Indian liberals, leftists, BJP critics have become suckers for political opposition whose main agenda is Caste census which is also ultra-reactionary, diversionary and destructive.  The ruling regime is bad undoubtedly. Incompetent in policy making, polarizing on social issues and thoroughly corrupted in governance. But the caste census agenda of political opposition - INDI alliance, is also thoroughly destabilizing, destructive and diversionary as i have explained ...

By all appearances, the regime of Syrian President and dictator Bashar-al-Assad is near dissolution. Syria endured a civil war against terrorist groups which were funded from abroad for last 12 years. The terrorist groups like ISIS, Al Qaeda, Al Nusra, FSA etc were various militant organizations originally funded by US, Israel, Turkey, Saudis etc to overthrow Assad for variety of reasons. For US, the support to Syrian rebels was based on mission to export democracy - the usual argument. For Israel, the motive was to expand its territorial boundaries, usurpation of territory of neighboring states as it has always done. For Turkey and Saudis etc, the motive was getting a piece of territory and influence in this ethnic region. Saudis in previous decade had bitter rivalry with Shiite bloc of Iran. Erdgan in Turkey was bitterly against Kurds as well as Syrian regime. The conflict had largely boiled down in last 5-6 years but now there is a very sudden flare up of conflict with new rebel fac...

Joseph Goebbels: “The big joke on democracy is that it gives its mortal enemies the tools to its own destruction.” US 2024 elections concluded with victory of Donald Trump, a felon previously indicted on 91 criminal charges - espionage, conspiring to defraud America, inciting an insurrection, election interference, business fraud etc. Trump, regarded as most unfit and grossly incompetent leader still managed to beat Democratic party candidate. How did this happen? Elections are unpredictable exercises and complex gambles which can go either way. This itself is structural problem of electoral democracy which i have discussed in a previous article . When a candidate like Donald Trump is in the race, playing this gamble in electoral democracy can turn out to be a Russian roulette. Elections are complex and it's very difficult to measure and ascribe weightage to observable factors behind their outcome, and then there are many unknown unknown which we can't even account for. Despite...

Edit - My prediction turned out to be wrong. Trump won 2024 elections. US elections are just few days away. I believe that Trump will lose these elections due to various reasons that i briefly summarize below. I also believe that there's high possibility that Trump & Republicans will not accept election outcome especially if their margin of defeat is narrow. This may result in anarchy and violence as witnessed at the end of previous Trump Presidency. To tackle this scenario, i propose certain steps to maintain peace and order in America. Trump will lose - Question is the margin of his defeat Trump will lose next month due to several reasons. First is that Trump is betting big on his base turnout strategy that entire Republican base will turn out to vote for him on election day which is very unlikely. Trump's core MAGA appeal has also shrunk in past four years which is evident from size of his rallies. A crucial factor in this election will be women electorate which i believ...

Elon Musk, the richest man in the world endorsed Donald Trump. I am not gonna spell out the evil things about this alliance. This is a short article on a specific commonality between the two people. No, i am not talking about their arrogance, misogyny and toxicity of their rhetoric. I am talking about delusional grandiose beliefs of these two people. And their beliefs seems fantastic and appealing. The delusional beliefs of Trump and Musk are strikingly similar. They appear to have very certain and absolute view of things, and mystical faith in their own capability. Trump has a narrative ' I alone can fix it ' about America. When Pandemic came, Trump projected himself as the smartest person who can deal with the crisis (in reality he bungled everything to FUBAR). This idea of - 'I alone can fix it' - goes deeper with Trump. Trump says American dream is dead and politicians and establishment cannot fix it. He and only he can restore America, make America great again. Elo...

What happens when system of Balance of power breaks down? ..... western bloc became too powerful after the dissolution of soviet union ..... Both in terms of military power and economic policy, the western world imposed itself on rest of the world. The consequences were brutal. Western pundits have very certain view of things on Ukraine conflict. To end Ukraine war, US & NATO needs to have full commitment for a Ukrainian victory & nothing else. Whatever weapons & equipment Ukraine needs, howsoever Ukraine intends to use it, all should be provided & authorized to Ukraine to defeat Russia. The goal being expulsion of all Russians from Ukrainian territory. The risk of Nuclear war is zero. Backing Ukraine today is averting Chinese invasion of Taiwan tomorrow. Any attempt for political settlement is like 'Czechoslovakia' sell out of in 1938 which emboldened Hitler to start world war 2. These are all stated positions of western pundits and US government hawks. If i ca...